Audit: Envisioning Emerging Technologies (Policy Horizons Canada)

Grader A

Affectiva sold Affdex facial emotion analytics commercially for ad testing from about 2013 (100,000+ ads in 90 countries); Microsoft offered an Emotion API in 2015. Crowd surveillance use in airports is an application note, not the test.

Test: D37 Horizons: emotion-recognition products buyable by businesses outside pilots by 2021 (earlier counts).

• Affectiva (Wikipedia): Affdex emotion recognition deployed commercially in media analytics; tested more than 100,000 ads in 90+ countries.

Grader B

Microsoft's Emotion API (Project Oxford, 2015), Amazon Rekognition emotion attributes (2016) and Affectiva's commercial SDK sold facial emotion detection to any business; retail and security vendors embedded it. Available before 2019.

Test: Emotion-recognition products could be bought by businesses outside pilots by 2021 (earlier counts).

• Microsoft Project Oxford emotion recognition tool: Public emotion-recognition API detecting eight emotions from faces in images.
• Amazon Rekognition: detecting faces in an image: Commercial API returns emotion estimates for every face detected, including multiple faces in one image.

Grader A

Google Now (July 2012) proactively pushed predicted information cards to all Android users; Gmail Priority Inbox (2010) sorted mail. Available before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: proactive assistant products buyable or usable by ordinary consumers by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Google Now (Wikipedia): Launched with Android 4.1; proactively delivered information predicted from user habits as cards.

Grader B

Google Now (2012) gave proactive predictive cards; Gmail Priority Inbox (2010) and Inbox by Gmail (2014) sorted email; AI meeting-scheduling assistants (x.ai, Clara) were sold by 2016. Available by 2017.

Test: Consumers or businesses could use such an agent by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Google Now: Proactive assistant delivering predicted information cards to Android users from 2012.
• Inbox by Gmail: Email client that auto-bundled mail and surfaced proactive reminders, available to consumers from 2014.

Grader A

Target-specific neuro drugs reached market well before 2025: anti-CGRP monoclonal antibody erenumab (FDA May 2018), esketamine (2019), and muscarinic-targeted xanomeline-trospium (FDA Sept 2024). The label is broad; any faithful reading is met.

Test: D37 Horizons: new mechanism-targeted neuro drugs prescribable to ordinary patients by 2025 (earlier counts).

• FDA approves novel preventive treatment for migraine: Aimovig, first drug in a new class targeting the CGRP pathway, approved for prescription use.

Grader B

The label is broad. Mechanistically novel, more selective CNS drugs reached patients near the mark: esketamine (2019), zuranolone (2023) and the muscarinic xanomeline-trospium (Cobenfy, Sept 2024), the first new antipsychotic mechanism in decades. Graded hit, but the vagueness of 'next-generation' makes this low-certainty.

Test: Such drugs were approved and prescribable by 2025 (earlier counts).

• FDA Approves Drug with New Mechanism of Action for Treatment of Schizophrenia: Cobenfy approved, targeting muscarinic receptors rather than dopamine receptors.
• FDA Approves First Oral Treatment for Postpartum Depression: Zuranolone, a neuroactive steroid GABA-A modulator, approved.

Grader A

Butterfly iQ, a handheld scanner on a 9,000-element CMUT chip, got FDA 510(k) clearance in October 2017 and sold for under $2,000; PMUT ultrasonic fingerprint sensors shipped in phones in 2019. The poster's example use (remotely boosting soldiers' alertness) is not available, but the label is the transducer technology.

Test: D37 Horizons: CMUT/PMUT-based products buyable by ordinary customers or clinicians by 2022 (earlier counts).

• First Ultrasound-on-a-Chip receives broadest FDA 510(k) clearance: Butterfly iQ, CMUT-based ultrasound-on-a-chip, cleared for 13 clinical applications, priced under $2,000.

Grader B

Butterfly iQ, a CMUT ultrasound-on-a-chip probe, was FDA-cleared in Oct 2017 and sold to clinicians from 2018. The poster's example use (remote alertness stimulation in soldiers) never became a product; graded on the label, the technology.

Test: A CMUT-based product could be bought by ordinary customers (clinicians/businesses) by 2022 (earlier counts).

• First Ultrasound-on-a-Chip receives broadest FDA 510(k) clearance: Butterfly iQ cleared for 13 clinical applications; MEMS (CMUT) sensor array on an IC.
• CMUT/CMOS-based Butterfly iQ - A Portable Personal Sonoscope: Confirms the commercial iQ uses CMUT transducers.

Grader A

InteraXon's Muse EEG headband, which turns brain activity into real-time audio feedback, went on public sale in May 2014; clinical EEG neurofeedback services predate it.

Test: D37 Horizons: neurofeedback products buyable by consumers or clinics outside pilots by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Muse (headband) (Wikipedia): Released to the public May 2014; 4 EEG sensors, app converts brain activity into audio neurofeedback.

Grader B

EEG neurofeedback was a paid clinical service for decades, and consumer EEG feedback headbands (InteraXon Muse, 2014) were sold at retail. Available before 2017.

Test: Neurofeedback products or services could be bought by consumers or clinics by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Neurofeedback: EEG neurofeedback in clinical practice since the 1970s-90s.
• Muse (headband): Consumer EEG biofeedback headband on sale from 2014.

Grader A

FDA-cleared NeuroStar TMS for major depression (classified 2011, first cleared 2008) and Brainsway deep TMS (2013) were in routine clinical sale before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: TMS devices or treatments available to ordinary patients or clinics by 2024 (earlier counts).

• Transcranial magnetic stimulation (Wikipedia): FDA classified NeuroStar TMS for treatment of MDD (July 2011); Brainsway Deep TMS cleared January 2013.

Grader B

Neuronetics' NeuroStar TMS was FDA-cleared for depression in 2008 and sold to clinics; TMS therapy was widely reimbursed by 2014. Available long before the mark.

Test: TMS devices or treatments could be bought by clinics or patients by 2024 (earlier counts).

• FDA 510(k) K083538 NeuroStar TMS Therapy System: FDA clearance of a commercial TMS system for major depressive disorder.

Grader A

The first clinical 7T scanner (Siemens Magnetom Terra) was FDA cleared in October 2017, so higher-field scanners could be bought by hospitals, but installs stay at a few dozen sites and fMRI at 7T is mostly research. No 14T human scanner exists; the Dutch 14T project is still in construction. Real but limited availability.

Test: D37 Horizons: ultra-high-field MRI systems buyable by hospitals for clinical use outside pilots by 2021; full credit needs the poster's resolution step to be on sale.

• FDA Clears MAGNETOM Terra 7T MRI Scanner From Siemens Healthineers: First 7T MRI cleared for clinical diagnostic imaging of head and knee, with a separate research mode.
• Use of a Commercial 7-T MRI Scanner for Clinical Brain Imaging: Single-Center Experience (AJR): Clinical 7T brain imaging is reported as a single-centre experience with specific challenges, i.e. still limited.

Grader B

The first clinical 7 T scanner (Siemens Magnetom Terra) was FDA-cleared Oct 2017 and is sold to hospitals, so higher-resolution fMRI is purchasable. But 7 T remains limited to a small number of centres, and no 14 T human scanner exists commercially. Real but limited availability of the stated form.

Test: Ultra-high-field (beyond 3 T) MRI scanners could be bought for routine use by 2021; the poster's 14 T 'common' is the stronger form.

• FDA Clears MAGNETOM Terra 7T MRI Scanner From Siemens Healthineers: First 7 T MRI cleared for clinical use (head and extremities).
• 1st clinical 7-Tesla MRI scanner in North America: 7 T clinical use starting at a few large centres, not common.

Grader A

Emotiv EPOC (2009) was sold as a consumer mobile EEG headset; NeuroSky MindWave (2011) and Muse (2014) followed, all before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: EEG BCI headsets buyable by ordinary consumers by 2022 (earlier counts).

• Emotiv (Wikipedia): EPOC released 2009 as one of the first mobile EEG devices on the market; Insight general release October 2015.

Grader B

Emotiv EPOC (2009) and NeuroSky MindWave (2011) EEG headsets with BCI software were sold to consumers; g.tec sold research BCI systems. Available before 2020.

Test: EEG BCI products could be bought by consumers or businesses by 2022 (earlier counts).

• Emotiv: Consumer EEG BCI headset EPOC released 2009.
• NeuroSky: MindWave consumer EEG headset with BCI games and apps.

Grader A

Eversense, a fully implanted glucose sensor reporting to a phone app, was FDA approved in June 2018 and sold by prescription, matching the biometric-implant reading. It is one niche product (a few-mm sensor, not microscopic), and implanted sensing with closed-loop feedback beyond cardiac devices remained limited by 2021.

Test: D37 Horizons: such implants available to ordinary patients outside trials by 2021 (earlier counts); a single niche product is partial.

• FDA Approves World's First Long-Term Implantable Continuous Glucose Monitoring System for Marketing in United States: Eversense implantable CGM sensor (90 days) approved for marketing in the US.

Grader B

Senseonics' Eversense, a fully implanted glucose sensor with phone alerts, was FDA-approved June 2018 and sold from July 2018; it later integrated with insulin pumps (2024). It is a single niche product and not microscopic; no general class of 'bionic' micro-implants exists. Real but limited.

Test: Implanted biometric-sensing products with feedback could be bought by ordinary patients by 2021; partial if limited/niche.

• FDA Approves World's First Long-Term Implantable Continuous Glucose Monitoring System: Implanted biometric sensor approved and distributed from July 2018.
• Fully-implantable CGM receives FDA authorization for integration with insulin pumps: Feedback (pump integration) arrived only in 2024.

Grader A

The only known clinical use (He Jiankui, 2018) was a criminal act punished in 2019; germline editing is prohibited in China and under international guidelines, and no clinic offers it. Not available by 2026.

Test: D37 Horizons: prenatal genome editing offered to ordinary customers by 2026 for a hit; miss if not available by 2029.

• He Jiankui affair (Wikipedia): Embryo editing of twins in 2018 led to a conviction for illegal medical practice; germline editing remains prohibited or restricted.

Grader B

Heritable human genome editing is banned or not authorised in the US, UK, EU and China after He Jiankui's 2018 experiment, which led to his imprisonment. No clinic offers it as of 2026. Window to 2029 is open.

Test: Ordinary customers could buy embryo/fetal genome editing by 2026; partial if limited (e.g. a licensed clinic) or by 2027-2029.

• He Jiankui affair: The only known embryo editing was illegal; He was sentenced to three years in prison.
• WHO Human genome editing: a framework for governance: WHO advises against clinical heritable editing; no approved service.

Grader A

Hypomethylating agent azacitidine was FDA approved in May 2004; HDAC and EZH2 inhibitors followed. Available before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: epigenetic drugs prescribable to ordinary patients by 2024 (earlier counts).

• Azacitidine (Wikipedia): FDA approved for myelodysplastic syndrome; DNA methyltransferase inhibitor, an epigenetic agent.

Grader B

DNA methyltransferase inhibitors (azacitidine 2004, decitabine 2006) and HDAC inhibitors (vorinostat 2006) were approved epigenetic cancer therapies; EZH2 inhibitor tazemetostat followed in 2020.

Test: Epigenetic drugs were approved and prescribable by 2024 (earlier counts).

• Tazemetostat: First EZH2 (epigenetic) inhibitor approved by FDA in 2020.
• Vorinostat: HDAC inhibitor approved for cutaneous T-cell lymphoma in 2006.

Grader A

Bioprinted tissue was sold commercially from November 2014 (Organovo exVive3D liver tissue for preclinical drug testing), and bioprinters sold to labs. Printed tissue to repair or replace body parts reached only a clinical trial (3DBio AuriNovo ear, 2022); no printed organ is available to patients. Real but limited.

Test: D37 Horizons: bioprinted tissue or organ products buyable outside pilots by 2021; research-only tissue models or trial implants count as limited availability.

• Organovo Announces Commercial Release of the exVive3D Human Liver Tissue: First commercial bioprinted human tissue, sold for preclinical drug testing.
• 3D bioprinting (Wikipedia): First clinical-trial success of a bioprinted transplant (ear) in 2022; little success with fully functional organs.

Grader B

Bioprinters (Cellink, 2016) and bioprinted tissue models (Organovo exVive3D liver, 2014) were sold to researchers, but no printed tissue or organ for repair/replacement was approved for patients by 2024; 3DBio's printed ear implant was a 2022 trial. Real but limited availability.

Test: Bioprinted tissue or organ products usable by patients or businesses by 2021; partial for research-only products or later availability.

• Organovo: exVive3D bioprinted liver tissue sold for drug testing, not implantation.
• Doctors Transplant Ear of Human Cells, Made by 3-D Printer: First printed implant was a clinical trial in 2022.

Grader A

The ODIN sold DIY CRISPR gene-editing kits to the public from 2016 for about $120; consumer genome and wearable self-tracking services were also on sale. Both senses of the label are met before 2022.

Test: D37 Horizons: biohacking kits or services buyable by ordinary consumers by 2024 (earlier counts).

• Gene-Editing Bacteria and Yeast at Home Using CRISPR Kits (Reason): ODIN selling DIY CRISPR gene-editing kits to the public for about $120.

Grader B

DIY genetic engineering kits (The ODIN CRISPR kit, 2016), DNA tests (23andMe) and self-tracking wearables were on sale; non-prescription CGMs for self-optimisation followed (Dexcom Stelo, 2024).

Test: Consumers could buy biohacking products/services by 2024 (earlier counts).

• The ODIN: DIY Bacterial Gene Engineering CRISPR Kit: Consumer DIY-bio CRISPR kits sold online.
• FDA Clears First Over-the-Counter Continuous Glucose Monitor: Self-monitoring biometric device sold without prescription.

Grader A

Cartridge-based integrated diagnostic devices were already sold widely: GeneXpert MTB/RIF (WHO-endorsed 2010, deployed globally), Abbott i-STAT point-of-care cartridges, and paper-microfluidic home tests. Available before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: lab-on-chip products buyable by clinics, labs or consumers outside pilots by 2020 (earlier counts).

• GeneXpert MTB/RIF (Wikipedia): Automated cartridge-based nucleic acid test endorsed by WHO in December 2010 and deployed across many countries.
• Lab-on-a-chip (Wikipedia): Paper-microfluidic home tests are a marketed LOC device; LOC market about US$5.7 billion in 2021.

Grader B

Abbott's i-STAT handheld blood analyser (microfluidic cartridges, 1990s) and Cepheid GeneXpert cartridges were sold widely before 2014.

Test: Lab-on-a-chip products could be bought by clinics/businesses by 2020 (earlier counts).

• Lab-on-a-chip: Commercial LOC devices in point-of-care diagnostics.
• GeneXpert MTB/RIF: Cartridge-based integrated lab test endorsed by WHO and deployed in clinics.

Grader A

Apple Watch (April 2015) shipped an optical heart-rate sensor synced to phones; Dexcom connected glucose monitors and Fitbit trackers were also sold by then.

Test: D37 Horizons: connected biometric sensors buyable by ordinary consumers or patients by 2017 (earlier counts).

• Apple Watch (Wikipedia): First Apple Watch released with a built-in optical heart-rate sensor.

Grader B

Dexcom G5 CGM sending glucose readings to smartphones was FDA-approved in 2015; connected heart-rate wearables and remote patient monitoring services were sold by then.

Test: Remote biometric sensing products could be bought by consumers or providers by 2017 (earlier counts).

• Dexcom: Dexcom G5 Mobile CGM transmitting readings to smartphones approved and sold from 2015.

Grader A

SCR Heatime activity collars launched commercially in 2006 and rumination-monitoring collars in 2008, later used on more than 5 million cows. GPS collars (Halter) were commercial by 2022.

Test: D37 Horizons: livestock monitoring collars buyable by ordinary farms by 2022 (earlier counts).

• SCR by Allflex smart collars for cows honored (Hoard's Dairyman): Heatime launched commercially 2006; rumination-monitoring collars 2008; used on more than 5 million cows.

Grader B

SCR (Allflex) Heatime rumination/activity collars and CowManager ear sensors were sold commercially in the 2000s-2010s.

Test: Farmers could buy livestock biometric monitoring products by 2022 (earlier counts).

• Allflex Livestock Monitoring (SCR): Commercial collar-based cow monitoring for heat and health.
• CowManager: Ear sensor measuring temperature, rumination, activity sold to dairy farms.

Grader A

Trimble's GreenSeeker NDVI sensor system, developed with Oklahoma State from about 2000, sold for on-the-go variable-rate nitrogen application, with a handheld version also sold. Available before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: crop sensing products buyable by ordinary farms by 2021 (earlier counts).

• Trimble offers handheld GreenSeeker crop sensor (Farm Progress): GreenSeeker crop sensor sold by Trimble, tractor-mounted and handheld, for nitrogen management.

Grader B

Trimble GreenSeeker and Ag Leader OptRx active crop sensors for variable nitrogen were sold before 2014; NDVI drone services followed by 2016.

Test: Farmers could buy crop-sensing products by 2021 (earlier counts).

• Trimble GreenSeeker crop sensor: Commercial optical crop sensor for nitrogen management.

Grader A

John Deere introduced JDLink Machine Messenger in 2002 and JDLink Select/Ultimate with alerts in 2009, sold through dealers. The 'farm swarm' extension is described as rudimentary and is not the test.

Test: D37 Horizons: equipment telematics buyable by ordinary farms by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Telematics 2.0 (Farm Progress): Deere introduced JDLink telematics in 2002, replaced in 2009 by JDLink Select and Ultimate with machine alerts.

Grader B

John Deere JDLink telematics with remote diagnostics was sold from 2008-2011; similar offerings from AGCO and CNH.

Test: Farm equipment telematics could be bought by farmers by 2019 (earlier counts).

• John Deere: JDLink telematics and remote diagnostics offered on Deere equipment.

Grader A

Commercial soil moisture sensors with wireless loggers (Decagon EC-5, 5TM, Em50R) were sold and deployed on irrigated fields by 2013; weather stations were routine farm equipment.

Test: D37 Horizons: farm environmental sensor products buyable by ordinary farms by 2017 (earlier counts).

• Wireless sensor network for monitoring soil moisture (Applied Engineering in Agriculture, USDA ARS): Commercial Decagon soil sensors and radio data loggers deployed across center-pivot fields for real-time soil moisture monitoring.

Grader B

Commercial soil-moisture probes (Decagon/METER, Sentek) and farm weather stations (Davis) were sold long before 2015.

Test: Such sensors could be bought by farmers by 2017 (earlier counts).

• METER Group (formerly Decagon) environment sensors: Commercial soil moisture and weather sensors for agriculture.

Grader A

Foods on sale by 2024 are edits of existing species (Sanatech GABA tomato 2021, AquAdvantage salmon), which the poster explicitly distinguishes from genetically designed food. No food organism designed from scratch is available.

Test: D37 Horizons: such designed foods buyable by ordinary consumers by 2024 for a hit; miss if not available by 2027.

• Genetically modified tomato (Wikipedia): Sanatech's gene-edited high-GABA tomato sold in Japan from 2021, a single-gene edit of an existing variety; no foods designed from scratch are described.

Grader B

Food on sale by 2024 came from edits of existing strains (Calyxt high-oleic soybean oil 2019, Sanatech GABA tomato 2021, Pairwise greens 2023), not organisms designed from scratch. The poster explicitly sets this apart from GM food. Window open to 2027.

Test: Consumers could buy de novo-designed food organisms by 2024; partial if limited or by 2025-2027.

• Japan Starts Sale of Genome-Edited High-GABA Tomato: First gene-edited food on sale is a single-base edit of an existing tomato variety, not a de novo design.
• Genetically modified food: No commercially sold food organism designed from the ground up.

Grader A

USDA ERS reports GPS guidance on 45-55% of US corn, rice and peanut acres and variable-rate technology on about 20% in 2010-2013, i.e. commercially sold before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: precision-agriculture products buyable by ordinary farms by 2025 (earlier counts).

• Precision Agriculture Technologies and Factors Affecting Their Adoption (USDA ERS Amber Waves): GPS guidance on about half of planted acres and VRT on about 20% for major crops in 2010-2013.

Grader B

GPS guidance, yield mapping and variable-rate application were widely sold from the late 1990s.

Test: Farmers could buy precision-ag products/services by 2025 (earlier counts).

• Precision agriculture: GPS guidance, yield mapping and variable-rate application commercially used since the 1990s-2000s.

Grader A

Automatic milking robots have been sold commercially since the early 1990s (Lely Astronaut and others), and robotic weeders were on sale by the early 2020s. Available before 2021.

Test: D37 Horizons: ag robots buyable by ordinary farms by 2023 (earlier counts).

• Automatic milking (Wikipedia): Automatic milking systems commercially available since the early 1990s; Lely Astronaut among leading products.

Grader B

Robotic milking systems (Lely Astronaut) were sold since the 1990s; Naio Oz weeding robots were sold from 2013-2016; Carbon Robotics LaserWeeder and Deere's autonomous 8R tractor were sold in 2022.

Test: Farmers could buy agricultural robots outside pilots by 2023 (earlier counts).

• Automatic milking: Commercial milking robots in use for decades.
• Autonomous tractor: John Deere's autonomous 8R tractor announced for sale in 2022.

Grader A

Official USDA genomic evaluations for Holsteins and Jerseys began in January 2009 and are used routinely by AI companies and farms to select bulls, doubling genetic gain.

Test: D37 Horizons: algorithmic breeding services available to ordinary breeders or farms by 2019 (earlier counts).

• USDA dairy evaluation history (USDA ARS Beltsville): Official genomic evaluations released January 2009 for Holsteins and Jerseys.

Grader B

Genomic selection with official genomic evaluations has been used in US dairy cattle since 2009 and offered by commercial genotyping firms.

Test: Breeders could buy or use algorithmic/genomic selection services by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Invited review: Reliability of genomic predictions for North American Holstein bulls: Algorithmic genomic evaluations in commercial dairy breeding from 2009.

Grader A

Automatic section control on sprayers and planters was sold before the poster (economic case studies published 2013) and USDA reports it on 41-48% of cotton, sorghum and barley acres by 2019; VRT covered about 20% of major-crop acres in 2010-2013.

Test: D37 Horizons: section/swath control and variable-rate application buyable by ordinary farms by 2018 (earlier counts).

• Precision Agriculture in the Digital Era: Recent Adoption on U.S. Farms (USDA ERS EIB-248): Automatic section control used on 41-48% of acres for several crops in 2019; widely sold technology.
• The economics of automatic section control technology for planters: Tennessee farms (Computers and Electronics in Agriculture): Commercial planter section control already in farm use and evaluated in 2013.

Grader B

Automatic section control and prescription-based variable-rate controllers (Raven, Trimble, Deere) were sold commercially since the 2000s.

Test: Farmers could buy swath control and variable-rate systems by 2018 (earlier counts).

• Precision agriculture: GPS guidance, yield mapping and variable-rate application commercially used since the 1990s-2000s.

Grader A

Semi-synthetic artemisinin from engineered yeast went into commercial production at Sanofi in 2013 and WHO-prequalified antimalarials shipped in 2014; engineered-microbe ingredients (e.g. heme in plant-based burgers) and foundry services followed.

Test: D37 Horizons: synthetic-biology-made products buyable by ordinary customers or businesses by 2026 (earlier counts).

• Artemisinin (Wikipedia): Sanofi launched production of semisynthetic artemisinin from engineered yeast in 2013, WHO prequalified; 1.7 million doses shipped 2014.

Grader B

Engineered-organism products were on sale well before 2024: Impossible Burger's yeast-made heme (2016), Amyris squalane, and Ginkgo Bioworks' organism-engineering services.

Test: Synthetic-biology products or services could be bought by 2026 (earlier counts).

• Impossible Foods: Consumer product using heme from engineered yeast.
• Ginkgo Bioworks: Commercial organism-design services sold to businesses.

Grader A

The poster itself notes small systems already exist (sealed aquarium ecospheres are sold as novelties) and makes the claim about scaling. Human-supporting closed systems remain research programmes (Biosphere 2, BIOS-3, MELiSSA); none has supported life for long periods, and none is sold.

Test: D37 Horizons: scaled closed life-support ecosystems buyable or deployable outside research by 2024 for a hit; miss if not available by 2027.

• Closed ecological system (Wikipedia): No artificial closed ecological system involving humans has supported life for long periods; only small bottle/aquarium ecospheres are purchasable.

Grader B

Only small sealed ecospheres (sold since the 1980s, which the poster already acknowledges) exist. Life-support-scale systems remain research (ESA MELiSSA pilot plant). None on sale.

Test: A life-supporting closed ecosystem product beyond small scale could be bought by 2024; partial if limited or by 2025-2027.

• ESA MELiSSA: Closed-loop life support still at pilot-plant research stage.
• Closed ecological system: Large-scale closed systems are experiments; small ecospheres are novelties.

Grader A

The only product found is InVert self-shading windows (TBM Designs, Doris Sung), patented, award-winning (2020-2021) and installed in a few projects (CSULB smARTbox, LACI, a Brooks+Scarpa building). No pricing or general sales channel is shown. Real but limited availability.

Test: D37 Horizons: thermobimetal building products buyable by ordinary customers outside pilots by 2024; installed pilots or a single niche product are partial.

• TBM Designs - InVert self-shading windows: Thermobimetal InVert windows listed with three installed projects; no general availability or pricing.
• InVert (DOSU Studio Architecture): Design still being developed and commercialised with partners; US patent 9,074,408.

Grader B

TBM Designs' InVert self-shading window (thermobimetal pieces in double glazing), developed since 2015, was marketed as commercially available around 2021. It is a single niche startup product. Real but limited.

Test: Thermo-bimetal shading products could be bought by building owners by 2024; partial for a single niche product.

• Award-winning design from USC's Doris Sung saves energy: InVert thermobimetal window described as commercially available.
• Thermobimetal shutters by Doris Sung self-regulate the temperature of buildings: Product still in development/launch in 2019.

Grader A

Commercial aerogel insulation blankets (e.g. Aspen Aerogels Spaceloft) have been manufactured since about 2000.

Test: D37 Horizons: aerogel products buyable by ordinary businesses or consumers by 2023 (earlier counts).

• Aerogel (Wikipedia): Commercial manufacture of aerogel blankets began around 2000; Spaceloft used for thermal insulation.

Grader B

Aspen Aerogels sold aerogel insulation blankets from the early 2000s (IPO 2014); aerogel-insulated apparel and Cabot Lumira glazing were also sold.

Test: Aerogel products could be bought by consumers or businesses by 2023 (earlier counts).

• Aspen Aerogels: Commercial aerogel blanket insulation for industry and buildings.

Grader A

Nike's Free RN (2016) shipped a sole with a 'Tri-star' cut pattern Nike called auxetic, sold at retail worldwide.

Test: D37 Horizons: auxetic products buyable by ordinary consumers by 2020 (earlier counts).

• Nike Free RN Review (Running Shoes Guru): Retail Nike Free RN uses an auxetic triangular sole pattern that expands perpendicular to applied force.

Grader B

Nike's Free RN 2016 and Under Armour's ArchiTech used auxetic sole/upper structures; Nike marketed the auxetic outsole in 2016. Available before 2018.

Test: Auxetic products could be bought by consumers by 2020 (earlier counts).

• Nike Free RN Flyknit 2016: Consumer shoe with auxetic tri-star sole pattern that expands in two directions.
• Auxetics: Commercial applications in footwear and protective gear.

Grader A

Ultra-Ever Dry, a superhydrophobic and oleophobic coating, was sold commercially for industrial use from about 2012 through ordinary distributors.

Test: D37 Horizons: oil- and water-repellent coatings buyable by businesses outside pilots or consumers by 2017 (earlier counts).

• Ultra-Ever Dry hydrophobic coating repels almost any liquid (New Atlas): Commercial coating repelling water and hydrocarbons, sold for industrial use.

Grader B

UltraTech's Ultra-Ever Dry, a superhydrophobic and oleophobic two-part coating, went on sale Feb 2013 at retail prices. True all-liquid omniphobicity remains a lab goal, which leaves some doubt.

Test: Such coatings could be bought by consumers or businesses by 2017 (earlier counts).

• Ultra-Ever Dry hydrophobic coating repels almost any liquid: Commercial coating repelling water and hydrocarbons, priced per quart.

Grader A

Kymeta announced commercial availability of metamaterial satellite antenna products (mTenna u7, KyWay terminal) in March 2017, sold to maritime and mobility businesses; later u8 terminals followed.

Test: D37 Horizons: metamaterial-based products buyable by businesses outside pilots by 2023 (earlier counts).

• Kymeta (Wikipedia): First metamaterials-based products commercialised in 2017.
• Peregrine u8 (Kymeta): Metamaterial flat-panel terminal sold commercially for maritime use.

Grader B

Kymeta's metamaterial flat-panel satellite antenna (u7/KyWay) shipped commercially in 2017; Echodyne metamaterial radar sold from 2018; Metalenz metasurface optics shipped in ST sensors in 2022.

Test: Metamaterial products could be bought by businesses or consumers by 2023 (earlier counts).

• Kymeta: Commercial metamaterial electronically steered antenna.
• STMicroelectronics and Metalenz bring metasurface optics to market: First mass-market metasurface optical product.

Grader A

The poster itself says biomaterials are already used; drug-eluting stents with polymer coatings for extended drug release were FDA approved in 2003 and made up 90% of stent implants by 2005.

Test: D37 Horizons: biomaterial medical products available to ordinary patients by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Drug-eluting stent (Wikipedia): Cypher stent FDA approved 2003; DES were 90% of stent implantations by 2005.

Grader B

Biomaterials were routine before 2014: drug-eluting stents with polymer release, resorbable sutures, collagen grafts and bone substitutes; the poster itself says 'already used'.

Test: Biomaterial products could be bought by clinicians/patients by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Drug-eluting stent: Polymer biomaterials for extended drug release in routine use since 2003.

Grader A

No synthetic molecular assembler has been built; only lab proof-of-concept molecular machines (Leigh 2013, 2017). Benchtop DNA synthesisers use conventional chemistry, not self-assembling machines.

Test: D37 Horizons: such machines buyable by businesses outside pilots by 2024 for a hit; miss if not available by 2027.

• Molecular assembler (Wikipedia): Synthetic molecular assemblers have never been constructed; only proof-of-concept molecular machines exist.

Grader B

Atomically precise self-replicating assemblers do not exist. DNA nanotechnology (origami) remains a research tool; commercial DNA/protein synthesis uses chemical or enzymatic synthesisers, not self-assembling machines.

Test: Products using controlled molecular self-assembly machines of this kind could be bought by 2024; partial if limited or by 2025-2027.

• Molecular assembler: No working molecular assembler has been built.
• DNA origami: Self-assembly is a research technique, not a product of this kind.

Grader A

The LG G Flex phone (November 2013) shipped with a self-healing back coating that repaired minor scratches; self-healing car clear coats predate it. Performance was modest, but the products were on general sale.

Test: D37 Horizons: self-healing material products buyable by ordinary consumers by 2021 (earlier counts).

• LG G Flex (Wikipedia): Retail phone with a self-healing rear coating that repairs minor scratches.

Grader B

Nissan Scratch Shield self-healing clear coat (2005) and the LG G Flex phone with a self-healing back (2013) were sold to consumers.

Test: Self-healing material products could be bought by consumers by 2021 (earlier counts).

• LG G Flex: Consumer phone with a self-healing back coating.
• Self-healing material: Commercial self-healing coatings (e.g. Nissan Scratch Shield).

Grader A

No commercial lithium-air battery existed by 2025; work remains at prototype stage (IIT/Argonne 2025 prototype, CATL 2026 lab claim), with cycle life and electrolyte problems unsolved. Window closed.

Test: D37 Horizons: Li-air battery products buyable by ordinary customers by 2022 for a hit; miss if not available by 2025.

• Lithium-air battery (Wikipedia): Power and cycle life need significant improvement before any market niche; only prototypes reported through 2025-2026.

Grader B

No lithium-air battery was commercially available by 2025 (or 2026); work remains at prototype stage (Argonne 2025 prototype, CATL 2026 announcement).

Test: Li-air battery products could be bought by 2022; partial if limited or by 2023-2025; miss if not available by 2025.

• Lithium-air battery: Practical power and cycle life still need improvement before any market niche; only prototypes.

Grader A

Ene-Farm residential fuel-cell CHP units sold about 20,000 units in Japan in 2012; the Toyota Mirai fuel-cell car went on retail sale in Japan in December 2014 and in the US and Europe in 2015.

Test: D37 Horizons: fuel-cell products buyable by ordinary consumers or businesses outside pilots by 2018 (earlier counts).

• Toyota Mirai (Wikipedia): Fuel-cell car on retail sale in Japan from December 2014, US and Europe 2015.
• Distributed generation (Wikipedia): 20,000 Ene-Farm fuel-cell micro-CHP units sold in Japan in 2012.

Grader B

Bloom Energy servers were sold to businesses from 2008; Toyota Mirai went on sale Dec 2014 in Japan, 2015 in the US; fuel-cell buses operated in commercial fleets.

Test: Fuel-cell products could be bought by businesses or consumers by 2018 (earlier counts).

• Bloom Energy Server: Commercial stationary solid-oxide fuel cells sold to businesses.
• Toyota Mirai: Fuel-cell car on general sale.

Grader A

Power-to-gas has run as kW-to-MW pilots since 2012 (Falkenhagen, Frankfurt, Mainz) plus one industry-scale plant (Audi e-gas Werlte, 6 MW); gigawatt-scale projects are planned for 2028+. Hydrogen-for-energy networks exist only as demonstrations and blends. Real but limited.

Test: D37 Horizons: hydrogen storage-and-transport energy services available to ordinary customers outside pilots by 2024; demonstrations or a few plants are partial.

• Power-to-gas (Wikipedia): Pilot plants 2012-2016, one 6 MW industry-scale plant, 1 GW electrolyser planned from 2028.

Grader B

Hydrogen storage and transport exist as industrial supply (pipelines, salt caverns), and power-to-gas plants and grid blending ran as pilots (Energiepark Mainz 2015, HyDeploy 2019). No hydrogen grid replaces electricity transmission. Real but limited.

Test: Hydrogen energy storage/transport services could be bought outside pilots by 2024; partial if pilots/limited or by 2025-2027.

• HyDeploy: Hydrogen blending into a gas network trialled, not commercial.
• Power-to-gas: Power-to-hydrogen storage plants mostly demonstration scale.

Grader A

Rooftop PV reached grid parity in at least 19 markets by 2014 and was sold widely to households; micro-CHP fuel cells sold in volume in Japan in 2012. Available before the poster.

Test: D37 Horizons: distributed-generation products buyable by ordinary consumers or businesses by 2024 (earlier counts).

• Distributed generation (Wikipedia): PV reached grid parity in at least 19 markets in 2014; 20,000 Ene-Farm units sold in Japan in 2012.

Grader B

Rooftop solar and small CHP were sold widely before 2014; the US had over 400,000 solar homes by 2013 and millions by 2022.

Test: Consumers or businesses could buy distributed generation (e.g. rooftop solar) by 2024 (earlier counts).

• SEIA Solar Industry Research Data: Residential distributed solar sold at large scale for years.

Grader A

Smart meters were already in mass rollout before the poster; by 2022 the US had 119 million AMI meters, 72% of all meters.

Test: D37 Horizons: smart meters supplied to ordinary utility customers outside pilots by 2018 (earlier counts).

• How many smart meters are installed in the United States? (EIA FAQ): 119 million AMI smart meters installed in 2022, about 72% of electric meters.

Grader B

US utilities had installed about 46 million smart meters by 2012 (EIA); Italy's Enel rolled out smart meters in the 2000s.

Test: Utilities/customers could get smart meters by 2018 (earlier counts).

• EIA: How many smart meters are installed in the United States?: Tens of millions of advanced meters installed before 2016.

Grader A

No microreactor operated commercially by 2025: Project Pele is in construction with first power targeted around 2028, Oklo Aurora and eVinci target 2028 or later. Russia's 70 MW floating plant is not a shippable micro-reactor.

Test: D37 Horizons: microreactors buyable by ordinary customers outside demonstrations by 2026 for a hit; miss if not available by 2029.

• The Janus Five: 20+ Commercial Nuclear Microreactors, Starting in 2028 (POWER): Commercial microreactor deployments planned from 2028.
• Sept 2025 update: which advanced nuclear models are likely to hit emerging markets first (Energy for Growth Hub): Microreactor designs still pre-commercial as of September 2025.

Grader B

No commercial micro-reactor operates as of 2026. Project Pele is a military demonstrator targeting first power around 2028; Kairos and others target ~2030. Window open to 2029.

Test: Customers could buy power or units from a micro-reactor by 2026; partial if pilots or by 2027-2029.

• INL advances Project Pele demonstration microreactor with first TRISO fuel delivery: Leading microreactor still a demonstration with first power years away.
• The Janus Five: 20+ Commercial Nuclear Microreactors, Starting in 2028: Commercial microreactors planned from 2028, none earlier.

Grader A

NIF first reached scientific ignition in December 2022 with net loss at the wall plug (about 300 MJ in for 3.15 MJ out); LLNL's LIFE power-plant programme ended in 2014. No ICF electricity or product is sold.

Test: D37 Horizons: ICF power or products buyable by ordinary customers by 2024 for a hit; miss if not available by 2027.

• National Ignition Facility (Wikipedia): Ignition achieved December 2022; no commercial ICF power; LIFE programme ended April 2014.

Grader B

NIF achieved scientific ignition in Dec 2022, but no ICF power plant or product exists; commercial ICF firms target the 2030s.

Test: Customers could buy ICF-generated power by 2024; partial if pilots or by 2025-2027.

• DOE National Laboratory Makes History by Achieving Fusion Ignition: Scientific milestone only; no electricity generation.

Grader A

MeyGen began commercial operation in April 2018 with 6 MW and sells power to the GB grid, but it is the largest tidal-stream project in the world and expansion to 28 MW is only planned for 2027. Real but limited availability, as the poster's own 'small scale' note already described.

Test: D37 Horizons: tidal-stream electricity or turbines sold to ordinary customers outside pilots by 2020; a few small arrays count as limited availability.

• MeyGen (Wikipedia): Phase 1 commercial operation April 2018, 6 MW; claimed world's largest tidal stream project; Phase 2 planned 2027.

Grader B

Tidal turbines produce grid power only in small arrays: MeyGen's 6 MW demonstration array entered operations in April 2018; global tidal-stream capacity stays tens of MW. Real but limited.

Test: Tidal-turbine power or units could be bought outside pilots by 2020; partial if limited/demonstration.

• MeyGen Phase 1A enters 25-year operations phase: 6 MW, four-turbine demonstration array exporting to the grid.
• MeyGen: Largest tidal-stream project still small scale.

Grader A

The leading firm, QBotix (SolBot rail robots), shut down in August 2015 after single-axis trackers became cheaper; its licensing attempt failed and no successor product appeared by 2022. Abandoned.

Test: D37 Horizons: robotic panel-positioning products buyable by solar operators outside pilots by 2019 for a hit; miss if not available by 2022 or abandoned.

• As a Valley solar startup shuts down, the solar sector booms (Fortune): QBotix, the robotic solar-tracking startup, shut down in 2015.

Grader B

QBotix, the leading robotic tracker company, shut down in Aug 2015 after failing to win customers; conventional single-axis trackers won. No such product on the market by 2022.

Test: Robotic panel-positioning products could be bought by 2019; partial if limited or by 2020-2022; miss if not by 2022.

• As a Valley solar startup shuts down, the solar sector booms: QBotix robotic tracker startup closed.
• Robotic solar tracker startup QBotix closes shop: Approach abandoned commercially.

Grader A

Printed electronics revenue was about US$12.4 billion in 2011 (printed RFID, sensors, test strips); printed components were in phones such as the iPhone XS (2018).

Test: D37 Horizons: printed-electronics products buyable by ordinary customers by 2024 (earlier counts).

• Printed electronics (Wikipedia): Total printed electronics revenue reported at about $12.4 billion in 2011; used in iPhone XS/XR.

Grader B

Screen-printed glucose test strips, printed RFID antennas and printed sensors were mass-market products before 2014; JOLED shipped inkjet-printed OLED panels in 2017.

Test: Printed-electronics products could be bought by 2024 (earlier counts).

• Printed electronics: Commercial printed electronics (RFID, sensors, displays).

Grader A

UiPath released RPA desktop automation in 2013 and reported 5,000 customers by November 2019; Blue Prism and Automation Anywhere sold similar products.

Test: D37 Horizons: software-bot automation products buyable by ordinary businesses by 2022 (earlier counts).

• UiPath (Wikipedia): RPA product released 2013; 5,000 customers worldwide by November 2019.

Grader B

Robotic process automation from UiPath, Blue Prism and Automation Anywhere was sold widely by 2018; Gartner counted RPA as the fastest-growing enterprise software segment in 2018.

Test: Businesses could buy task-automation software agents by 2022 (earlier counts).

• Gartner Says Worldwide RPA Software Revenue to Reach Nearly $1.3 Billion in 2019: Software bots replacing human tasks sold at scale.

Grader A

Coinbase let consumers buy and sell bitcoin by bank transfer from October 2012 and had one million users in 2014, before the poster's mark.

Test: D37 Horizons: digital currencies buyable and spendable by ordinary consumers by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Coinbase (Wikipedia): Consumer bitcoin buying and selling launched October 2012; one million users in 2014.

Grader B

Bitcoin could be bought on exchanges (Coinbase from 2012) and spent at merchants (Overstock, 2014) before 2017.

Test: Consumers could buy/use digital currency by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Bitcoin: Digital currency traded and accepted by merchants by 2014.

Grader A

Samsung's modular MicroLED The Wall Professional took orders and shipped to commercial buyers from Q3 2018, with a 146-inch consumer version; LG sold a wallpaper-thin OLED TV in 2017. Prices are high and screens do not 'dominate all surfaces', but the test is availability.

Test: D37 Horizons: wall-sized modular displays buyable by ordinary businesses or consumers outside pilots by 2025 (earlier counts).

• Samsung launches The Wall Professional for commercial industry at InfoComm 2018: Modular MicroLED wall display extendable to hundreds of inches, orders shipping from Q3 2018.

Grader B

Samsung's modular MicroLED The Wall went on sale in 2018, followed by LG and Sony tiled displays; tiled LCD video walls and interactive touch walls were sold to businesses. Domination of surfaces is not required by the availability test.

Test: Consumers or businesses could buy wall-sized tileable screens by 2025 (earlier counts).

• MicroLED: Samsung's modular MicroLED 'The Wall' commercialised from 2018.
• Video wall: Tiled wall displays sold commercially.

Grader A

Google Glass went on open public sale in April 2014, and Glass Enterprise Edition was sold to businesses from July 2017 (Edition 2 in 2019) until 2023; Vuzix and Epson sold similar glasses.

Test: D37 Horizons: AR glasses buyable by ordinary consumers or businesses outside pilots by 2022 (earlier counts).

• Google Glass (Wikipedia): Public sale April 2014; Enterprise Edition sold to businesses from July 2017; Edition 2 in 2019; discontinued March 2023.

Grader B

Glass Enterprise Edition was sold to businesses from 2017; Vuzix Blade (2019) and Epson Moverio were sold to consumers.

Test: Consumers or businesses could buy annotated-reality glasses by 2022 (earlier counts).

• Google Glass: Glass Enterprise Edition sold to businesses from 2017.
• Vuzix: Vuzix Blade smart glasses on consumer sale.

Grader A

The Nest Learning Thermostat (2011) used built-in sensors and phone location to detect absence and learned users' schedules; sensor-rich smartphones with context features (Google Now 2012) were also on sale.

Test: D37 Horizons: context-aware devices buyable by ordinary consumers by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Nest Learning Thermostat (Wikipedia): Self-learning thermostat using sensors and phone location to detect occupancy and learn schedules, released 2011.

Grader B

Smartphones with location/activity awareness (Google Now, 2012) and the Nest Learning Thermostat (2011), which senses occupancy and learns habits, were on sale before 2017.

Test: Consumers could buy context-aware devices by 2019 (earlier counts).

• Nest Learning Thermostat: Consumer device that senses occupancy and learns user behaviour.