Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
2 publications, 2011 to 2012 · 229 predictions
45%
hit rate, 49 of 108 (95% interval 36% to 55%)
Two blind graders (D7, rule D16), agreement kappa 0.75. A third agent settled 18 disagreements (D20). Audit (D11): 50 agreed verdicts checked, error rate 8%.