Controlled self-assembly

Published 2014-04

Products and services using Controlled self-assembly are generally available around 2022

Verdict

missTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D37). The auditor agent confirmed it (D11).

Grader A: miss
Grader B: miss
agrees with A, without seeing its verdict
Audit: confirmed
in the fixed audit sample (D11)
Published: miss

Grader A: miss

No synthetic molecular assembler has been built; only lab proof-of-concept molecular machines (Leigh 2013, 2017). Benchtop DNA synthesisers use conventional chemistry, not self-assembling machines.

Test: D37 Horizons: such machines buyable by businesses outside pilots by 2024 for a hit; miss if not available by 2027.

Molecular assembler (Wikipedia) (2024): Synthetic molecular assemblers have never been constructed; only proof-of-concept molecular machines exist.

Grader B: miss

Atomically precise self-replicating assemblers do not exist. DNA nanotechnology (origami) remains a research tool; commercial DNA/protein synthesis uses chemical or enzymatic synthesisers, not self-assembling machines.

Test: Products using controlled molecular self-assembly machines of this kind could be bought by 2024; partial if limited or by 2025-2027.

Molecular assembler (2024): No working molecular assembler has been built.
DNA origami (2024): Self-assembly is a research technique, not a product of this kind.

All captured fields

id: hz-2014-056
category: Nanotechnology and materials science
kind: technology
target year: 2022
placed year: 2022
milestones: {"scientifically_viable":2014,"mainstream":2022,"financially_viable":2022}
confidence: high
note: Numbered dot (mainstream point) at 2022.1, on the 2022 line (read as 2022). Bar from 2013.8 to 2022.5: scientifically viable ~2014, financially viable ~2022. The bar reaches the inner edge of the grid (~2014), so scientific viability may be at or before the chart start. Sub-area: Self-assembling.