# Hindsight: side by side | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/comparisons --- --- 1. Hindsight --- # Side by side The same quantity, forecast by several publishers at the same horizon. Publishers are in alphabetical order, never ranked ([D17](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d17-publishers-side-by-side-not-ranked-amends-d6)). Where intervals overlap, the publishers cannot be told apart. Bias and mean absolute error are in percentage points. --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- ## Brazil real gdp growth, current year - Focus market expectations survey Target years 1999 to 2025 Graded 106 Hit rate (95% interval) 49% (40% to 58%) Bias \-0.38 Mean abs. error 0.79 - World Economic Outlook Target years 1990 to 2025 Graded 72 Hit rate (95% interval) 44% (34% to 56%) Bias \-0.35 Mean abs. error 1.12 - Economic Outlook Target years 2007 to 2025 Graded 27 Hit rate (95% interval) 52% (34% to 69%) Bias \-0.59 Mean abs. error 0.98 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1995 to 2025 Graded 36 Hit rate (95% interval) 31% (18% to 47%) Bias \-0.12 Mean abs. error 1.35 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Focus market expectations survey 1999 to 2025 106 49% (40% to 58%) \-0.38 0.79 World Economic Outlook 1990 to 2025 72 44% (34% to 56%) \-0.35 1.12 Economic Outlook 2007 to 2025 27 52% (34% to 69%) \-0.59 0.98 Global Economic Prospects 1995 to 2025 36 31% (18% to 47%) \-0.12 1.35 Restricted to the 13 target years every publisher above graded (2012 to 2025): - Focus market expectations survey Graded 52 Hit rate (95% interval) 54% (41% to 67%) Bias \-0.33 Mean abs. error 0.78 - World Economic Outlook Graded 26 Hit rate (95% interval) 58% (39% to 74%) Bias \-0.39 Mean abs. error 0.85 - Economic Outlook Graded 25 Hit rate (95% interval) 52% (34% to 70%) Bias \-0.59 Mean abs. error 1.00 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 26 Hit rate (95% interval) 27% (14% to 46%) Bias \-0.10 Mean abs. error 1.47 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Focus market expectations survey 52 54% (41% to 67%) \-0.33 0.78 World Economic Outlook 26 58% (39% to 74%) \-0.39 0.85 Economic Outlook 25 52% (34% to 70%) \-0.59 1.00 Global Economic Prospects 26 27% (14% to 46%) \-0.10 1.47 - BCB Focus values are the median of market forecasts, sampled quarterly; the others are institutional forecasts. ## Brazil real gdp growth, next year - Focus market expectations survey Target years 2000 to 2025 Graded 102 Hit rate (95% interval) 17% (11% to 25%) Bias +0.42 Mean abs. error 1.90 - World Economic Outlook Target years 1991 to 2025 Graded 70 Hit rate (95% interval) 19% (11% to 29%) Bias +0.44 Mean abs. error 2.06 - Economic Outlook Target years 2008 to 2025 Graded 25 Hit rate (95% interval) 16% (6% to 35%) Bias +0.09 Mean abs. error 1.89 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1996 to 2025 Graded 34 Hit rate (95% interval) 21% (10% to 37%) Bias +1.31 Mean abs. error 2.29 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Focus market expectations survey 2000 to 2025 102 17% (11% to 25%) +0.42 1.90 World Economic Outlook 1991 to 2025 70 19% (11% to 29%) +0.44 2.06 Economic Outlook 2008 to 2025 25 16% (6% to 35%) +0.09 1.89 Global Economic Prospects 1996 to 2025 34 21% (10% to 37%) +1.31 2.29 Restricted to the 12 target years every publisher above graded (2013 to 2025): - Focus market expectations survey Graded 48 Hit rate (95% interval) 19% (10% to 32%) Bias +0.43 Mean abs. error 1.81 - World Economic Outlook Graded 24 Hit rate (95% interval) 21% (9% to 40%) Bias +0.48 Mean abs. error 1.84 - Economic Outlook Graded 23 Hit rate (95% interval) 17% (7% to 37%) Bias +0.24 Mean abs. error 1.91 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 24 Hit rate (95% interval) 25% (12% to 45%) Bias +0.83 Mean abs. error 1.99 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Focus market expectations survey 48 19% (10% to 32%) +0.43 1.81 World Economic Outlook 24 21% (9% to 40%) +0.48 1.84 Economic Outlook 23 17% (7% to 37%) +0.24 1.91 Global Economic Prospects 24 25% (12% to 45%) +0.83 1.99 - BCB Focus values are the median of market forecasts, sampled quarterly; the others are institutional forecasts. ## China real gdp growth, current year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1990 to 2025 Graded 72 Hit rate (95% interval) 49% (37% to 60%) Bias \-1.17 Mean abs. error 1.31 - Economic Outlook Target years 2007 to 2025 Graded 27 Hit rate (95% interval) 81% (63% to 92%) Bias \-0.42 Mean abs. error 0.57 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1995 to 2025 Graded 37 Hit rate (95% interval) 62% (46% to 76%) Bias \-0.10 Mean abs. error 0.67 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1990 to 2025 72 49% (37% to 60%) \-1.17 1.31 Economic Outlook 2007 to 2025 27 81% (63% to 92%) \-0.42 0.57 Global Economic Prospects 1995 to 2025 37 62% (46% to 76%) \-0.10 0.67 Restricted to the 13 target years every publisher above graded (2012 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 26 Hit rate (95% interval) 85% (66% to 94%) Bias \-0.17 Mean abs. error 0.34 - Economic Outlook Graded 25 Hit rate (95% interval) 88% (70% to 96%) Bias \-0.30 Mean abs. error 0.47 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 26 Hit rate (95% interval) 69% (50% to 84%) Bias +0.09 Mean abs. error 0.59 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 26 85% (66% to 94%) \-0.17 0.34 Economic Outlook 25 88% (70% to 96%) \-0.30 0.47 Global Economic Prospects 26 69% (50% to 84%) +0.09 0.59 ## China real gdp growth, next year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1991 to 2025 Graded 70 Hit rate (95% interval) 29% (19% to 40%) Bias \-1.46 Mean abs. error 2.09 - Economic Outlook Target years 2008 to 2025 Graded 25 Hit rate (95% interval) 52% (34% to 70%) Bias +0.29 Mean abs. error 1.04 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1996 to 2025 Graded 35 Hit rate (95% interval) 40% (26% to 56%) Bias +0.06 Mean abs. error 1.04 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1991 to 2025 70 29% (19% to 40%) \-1.46 2.09 Economic Outlook 2008 to 2025 25 52% (34% to 70%) +0.29 1.04 Global Economic Prospects 1996 to 2025 35 40% (26% to 56%) +0.06 1.04 Restricted to the 12 target years every publisher above graded (2013 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 24 Hit rate (95% interval) 38% (21% to 57%) Bias +0.31 Mean abs. error 0.98 - Economic Outlook Graded 23 Hit rate (95% interval) 52% (33% to 71%) Bias +0.29 Mean abs. error 1.07 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 24 Hit rate (95% interval) 50% (31% to 69%) Bias +0.29 Mean abs. error 0.99 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 24 38% (21% to 57%) +0.31 0.98 Economic Outlook 23 52% (33% to 71%) +0.29 1.07 Global Economic Prospects 24 50% (31% to 69%) +0.29 0.99 ## Euro area real gdp growth, current year - Staff macroeconomic projections Target years 2000 to 2025 Graded 101 Hit rate (95% interval) 64% (55% to 73%) Bias \-0.23 Mean abs. error 0.64 - World Economic Outlook Target years 2000 to 2025 Graded 51 Hit rate (95% interval) 53% (40% to 66%) Bias \-0.31 Mean abs. error 0.58 - Economic Outlook Target years 1999 to 2025 Graded 53 Hit rate (95% interval) 64% (51% to 76%) Bias \-0.37 Mean abs. error 0.61 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1999 to 2025 Graded 42 Hit rate (95% interval) 45% (31% to 60%) Bias \-0.26 Mean abs. error 0.89 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Staff macroeconomic projections 2000 to 2025 101 64% (55% to 73%) \-0.23 0.64 World Economic Outlook 2000 to 2025 51 53% (40% to 66%) \-0.31 0.58 Economic Outlook 1999 to 2025 53 64% (51% to 76%) \-0.37 0.61 Global Economic Prospects 1999 to 2025 42 45% (31% to 60%) \-0.26 0.89 Restricted to the 23 target years every publisher above graded (2000 to 2025): - Staff macroeconomic projections Graded 89 Hit rate (95% interval) 64% (54% to 73%) Bias \-0.26 Mean abs. error 0.65 - World Economic Outlook Graded 46 Hit rate (95% interval) 52% (38% to 66%) Bias \-0.35 Mean abs. error 0.58 - Economic Outlook Graded 46 Hit rate (95% interval) 63% (49% to 75%) Bias \-0.39 Mean abs. error 0.63 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 41 Hit rate (95% interval) 46% (32% to 61%) Bias \-0.24 Mean abs. error 0.88 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Staff macroeconomic projections 89 64% (54% to 73%) \-0.26 0.65 World Economic Outlook 46 52% (38% to 66%) \-0.35 0.58 Economic Outlook 46 63% (49% to 75%) \-0.39 0.63 Global Economic Prospects 41 46% (32% to 61%) \-0.24 0.88 - OECD 'Euro area' is the euro area members of the OECD (EA16/EA17), not the full euro area. - ECB rows are graded against the ECB's own working-day-adjusted history (MPD, September 2026); the other sources against their own databases. ## Euro area real gdp growth, next year - Staff macroeconomic projections Target years 2001 to 2025 Graded 97 Hit rate (95% interval) 44% (35% to 54%) Bias +0.55 Mean abs. error 1.38 - World Economic Outlook Target years 2001 to 2025 Graded 49 Hit rate (95% interval) 41% (28% to 55%) Bias +0.63 Mean abs. error 1.35 - Economic Outlook Target years 2000 to 2025 Graded 51 Hit rate (95% interval) 39% (27% to 53%) Bias +0.53 Mean abs. error 1.28 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 2000 to 2025 Graded 40 Hit rate (95% interval) 38% (24% to 53%) Bias +0.65 Mean abs. error 1.51 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Staff macroeconomic projections 2001 to 2025 97 44% (35% to 54%) +0.55 1.38 World Economic Outlook 2001 to 2025 49 41% (28% to 55%) +0.63 1.35 Economic Outlook 2000 to 2025 51 39% (27% to 53%) +0.53 1.28 Global Economic Prospects 2000 to 2025 40 38% (24% to 53%) +0.65 1.51 Restricted to the 22 target years every publisher above graded (2001 to 2025): - Staff macroeconomic projections Graded 85 Hit rate (95% interval) 49% (39% to 60%) Bias +0.56 Mean abs. error 1.34 - World Economic Outlook Graded 44 Hit rate (95% interval) 45% (32% to 60%) Bias +0.67 Mean abs. error 1.28 - Economic Outlook Graded 44 Hit rate (95% interval) 43% (30% to 58%) Bias +0.58 Mean abs. error 1.25 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 39 Hit rate (95% interval) 38% (25% to 54%) Bias +0.69 Mean abs. error 1.53 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Staff macroeconomic projections 85 49% (39% to 60%) +0.56 1.34 World Economic Outlook 44 45% (32% to 60%) +0.67 1.28 Economic Outlook 44 43% (30% to 58%) +0.58 1.25 Global Economic Prospects 39 38% (25% to 54%) +0.69 1.53 - OECD 'Euro area' is the euro area members of the OECD (EA16/EA17), not the full euro area. - ECB rows are graded against the ECB's own working-day-adjusted history (MPD, September 2026); the other sources against their own databases. ## India real gdp growth, current year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1990 to 2025 Graded 71 Hit rate (95% interval) 17% (10% to 27%) Bias \-0.28 Mean abs. error 1.35 - Economic Outlook Target years 2007 to 2025 Graded 27 Hit rate (95% interval) 15% (6% to 32%) Bias \-0.33 Mean abs. error 1.14 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 2010 to 2025 Graded 31 Hit rate (95% interval) 23% (11% to 40%) Bias +0.35 Mean abs. error 1.61 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1990 to 2025 71 17% (10% to 27%) \-0.28 1.35 Economic Outlook 2007 to 2025 27 15% (6% to 32%) \-0.33 1.14 Global Economic Prospects 2010 to 2025 31 23% (11% to 40%) +0.35 1.61 Restricted to the 13 target years every publisher above graded (2012 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 25 Hit rate (95% interval) 20% (9% to 39%) Bias +0.26 Mean abs. error 1.53 - Economic Outlook Graded 25 Hit rate (95% interval) 16% (6% to 35%) Bias \-0.34 Mean abs. error 1.12 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 26 Hit rate (95% interval) 23% (11% to 42%) Bias +0.48 Mean abs. error 1.64 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 25 20% (9% to 39%) +0.26 1.53 Economic Outlook 25 16% (6% to 35%) \-0.34 1.12 Global Economic Prospects 26 23% (11% to 42%) +0.48 1.64 - World Bank India rows are fiscal-year forecasts graded against fiscal-year actuals (GEP June 2026 for 2023 to 2025, WDI before); rows whose table does not state the basis are ungradable. ## India real gdp growth, next year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1991 to 2025 Graded 67 Hit rate (95% interval) 7% (3% to 16%) Bias +0.12 Mean abs. error 2.05 - Economic Outlook Target years 2008 to 2025 Graded 25 Hit rate (95% interval) 12% (4% to 30%) Bias +1.25 Mean abs. error 2.24 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 2011 to 2025 Graded 29 Hit rate (95% interval) 14% (6% to 31%) Bias +0.89 Mean abs. error 2.50 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1991 to 2025 67 7% (3% to 16%) +0.12 2.05 Economic Outlook 2008 to 2025 25 12% (4% to 30%) +1.25 2.24 Global Economic Prospects 2011 to 2025 29 14% (6% to 31%) +0.89 2.50 Restricted to the 11 target years every publisher above graded (2014 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 21 Hit rate (95% interval) 5% (1% to 23%) Bias +1.19 Mean abs. error 2.43 - Economic Outlook Graded 21 Hit rate (95% interval) 10% (3% to 29%) Bias +1.21 Mean abs. error 2.27 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 22 Hit rate (95% interval) 18% (7% to 39%) Bias +0.82 Mean abs. error 2.66 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 21 5% (1% to 23%) +1.19 2.43 Economic Outlook 21 10% (3% to 29%) +1.21 2.27 Global Economic Prospects 22 18% (7% to 39%) +0.82 2.66 - World Bank India rows are fiscal-year forecasts graded against fiscal-year actuals (GEP June 2026 for 2023 to 2025, WDI before); rows whose table does not state the basis are ungradable. ## Japan real gdp growth, current year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1990 to 2025 Graded 72 Hit rate (95% interval) 39% (28% to 50%) Bias +0.14 Mean abs. error 0.82 - Economic Outlook Target years 1992 to 2025 Graded 67 Hit rate (95% interval) 34% (24% to 46%) Bias +0.00 Mean abs. error 0.80 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1995 to 2025 Graded 43 Hit rate (95% interval) 37% (24% to 52%) Bias +0.23 Mean abs. error 0.98 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1990 to 2025 72 39% (28% to 50%) +0.14 0.82 Economic Outlook 1992 to 2025 67 34% (24% to 46%) +0.00 0.80 Global Economic Prospects 1995 to 2025 43 37% (24% to 52%) +0.23 0.98 Restricted to the 25 target years every publisher above graded (1995 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 50 Hit rate (95% interval) 36% (24% to 50%) Bias +0.04 Mean abs. error 0.88 - Economic Outlook Graded 50 Hit rate (95% interval) 40% (28% to 54%) Bias \-0.07 Mean abs. error 0.81 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 43 Hit rate (95% interval) 37% (24% to 52%) Bias +0.23 Mean abs. error 0.98 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 50 36% (24% to 50%) +0.04 0.88 Economic Outlook 50 40% (28% to 54%) \-0.07 0.81 Global Economic Prospects 43 37% (24% to 52%) +0.23 0.98 ## Japan real gdp growth, next year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1991 to 2025 Graded 70 Hit rate (95% interval) 29% (19% to 40%) Bias +0.93 Mean abs. error 1.55 - Economic Outlook Target years 1993 to 2025 Graded 65 Hit rate (95% interval) 26% (17% to 38%) Bias +0.68 Mean abs. error 1.52 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1996 to 2025 Graded 41 Hit rate (95% interval) 32% (20% to 47%) Bias +0.83 Mean abs. error 1.38 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1991 to 2025 70 29% (19% to 40%) +0.93 1.55 Economic Outlook 1993 to 2025 65 26% (17% to 38%) +0.68 1.52 Global Economic Prospects 1996 to 2025 41 32% (20% to 47%) +0.83 1.38 Restricted to the 24 target years every publisher above graded (1996 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 48 Hit rate (95% interval) 33% (22% to 47%) Bias +0.78 Mean abs. error 1.26 - Economic Outlook Graded 48 Hit rate (95% interval) 29% (18% to 43%) Bias +0.70 Mean abs. error 1.34 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 41 Hit rate (95% interval) 32% (20% to 47%) Bias +0.83 Mean abs. error 1.38 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 48 33% (22% to 47%) +0.78 1.26 Economic Outlook 48 29% (18% to 43%) +0.70 1.34 Global Economic Prospects 41 32% (20% to 47%) +0.83 1.38 ## United kingdom real gdp growth, current year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1990 to 2025 Graded 72 Hit rate (95% interval) 43% (32% to 55%) Bias \-0.33 Mean abs. error 0.78 - Economic and Fiscal Outlook Target years 2010 to 2025 Graded 32 Hit rate (95% interval) 59% (42% to 74%) Bias \-0.22 Mean abs. error 1.06 - Economic Outlook Target years 1990 to 2025 Graded 65 Hit rate (95% interval) 57% (45% to 68%) Bias \-0.34 Mean abs. error 0.65 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1990 to 2025 72 43% (32% to 55%) \-0.33 0.78 Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2010 to 2025 32 59% (42% to 74%) \-0.22 1.06 Economic Outlook 1990 to 2025 65 57% (45% to 68%) \-0.34 0.65 Restricted to the 16 target years every publisher above graded (2010 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 32 Hit rate (95% interval) 50% (34% to 66%) Bias \-0.39 Mean abs. error 0.76 - Economic and Fiscal Outlook Graded 32 Hit rate (95% interval) 59% (42% to 74%) Bias \-0.22 Mean abs. error 1.06 - Economic Outlook Graded 32 Hit rate (95% interval) 53% (36% to 69%) Bias \-0.60 Mean abs. error 0.69 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 32 50% (34% to 66%) \-0.39 0.76 Economic and Fiscal Outlook 32 59% (42% to 74%) \-0.22 1.06 Economic Outlook 32 53% (36% to 69%) \-0.60 0.69 - OBR year\_1 is the calendar year of publication of each EFO (spring and autumn). ## United kingdom real gdp growth, next year - World Economic Outlook Target years 1991 to 2025 Graded 70 Hit rate (95% interval) 47% (36% to 59%) Bias +0.37 Mean abs. error 1.35 - Economic and Fiscal Outlook Target years 2011 to 2025 Graded 30 Hit rate (95% interval) 37% (22% to 54%) Bias +0.17 Mean abs. error 1.36 - Economic Outlook Target years 1991 to 2025 Graded 63 Hit rate (95% interval) 44% (33% to 57%) Bias +0.40 Mean abs. error 1.33 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 1991 to 2025 70 47% (36% to 59%) +0.37 1.35 Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2011 to 2025 30 37% (22% to 54%) +0.17 1.36 Economic Outlook 1991 to 2025 63 44% (33% to 57%) +0.40 1.33 Restricted to the 15 target years every publisher above graded (2011 to 2025): - World Economic Outlook Graded 30 Hit rate (95% interval) 53% (36% to 70%) Bias +0.51 Mean abs. error 1.47 - Economic and Fiscal Outlook Graded 30 Hit rate (95% interval) 37% (22% to 54%) Bias +0.17 Mean abs. error 1.36 - Economic Outlook Graded 30 Hit rate (95% interval) 47% (30% to 64%) Bias +0.31 Mean abs. error 1.51 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error World Economic Outlook 30 53% (36% to 70%) +0.51 1.47 Economic and Fiscal Outlook 30 37% (22% to 54%) +0.17 1.36 Economic Outlook 30 47% (30% to 64%) +0.31 1.51 - OBR year\_1 is the calendar year of publication of each EFO (spring and autumn). ## United states real gdp growth, current year - Budget and economic projections Target years 2000 to 2025 Graded 42 Hit rate (95% interval) 45% (31% to 60%) Bias +0.10 Mean abs. error 0.84 - World Economic Outlook Target years 1990 to 2025 Graded 72 Hit rate (95% interval) 58% (47% to 69%) Bias \-0.23 Mean abs. error 0.61 - Economic Outlook Target years 1992 to 2025 Graded 68 Hit rate (95% interval) 50% (38% to 62%) Bias \-0.23 Mean abs. error 0.64 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1995 to 2025 Graded 43 Hit rate (95% interval) 56% (41% to 70%) Bias \-0.09 Mean abs. error 0.80 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Budget and economic projections 2000 to 2025 42 45% (31% to 60%) +0.10 0.84 World Economic Outlook 1990 to 2025 72 58% (47% to 69%) \-0.23 0.61 Economic Outlook 1992 to 2025 68 50% (38% to 62%) \-0.23 0.64 Global Economic Prospects 1995 to 2025 43 56% (41% to 70%) \-0.09 0.80 Restricted to the 18 target years every publisher above graded (2000 to 2025): - Budget and economic projections Graded 35 Hit rate (95% interval) 40% (26% to 56%) Bias +0.04 Mean abs. error 0.90 - World Economic Outlook Graded 36 Hit rate (95% interval) 56% (40% to 70%) Bias \-0.04 Mean abs. error 0.60 - Economic Outlook Graded 36 Hit rate (95% interval) 47% (32% to 63%) Bias \-0.05 Mean abs. error 0.68 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 31 Hit rate (95% interval) 45% (29% to 62%) Bias \-0.07 Mean abs. error 0.96 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Budget and economic projections 35 40% (26% to 56%) +0.04 0.90 World Economic Outlook 36 56% (40% to 70%) \-0.04 0.60 Economic Outlook 36 47% (32% to 63%) \-0.05 0.68 Global Economic Prospects 31 45% (29% to 62%) \-0.07 0.96 - CBO year\_1 comes from January or February baselines; IMF, OECD and World Bank current-year values come from spring and autumn editions. ## United states real gdp growth, next year - Budget and economic projections Target years 2001 to 2025 Graded 40 Hit rate (95% interval) 30% (18% to 45%) Bias +0.65 Mean abs. error 1.47 - World Economic Outlook Target years 1991 to 2025 Graded 70 Hit rate (95% interval) 34% (24% to 46%) Bias +0.02 Mean abs. error 1.21 - Economic Outlook Target years 1993 to 2025 Graded 66 Hit rate (95% interval) 35% (24% to 47%) Bias \-0.05 Mean abs. error 1.24 - Global Economic Prospects Target years 1996 to 2025 Graded 41 Hit rate (95% interval) 41% (28% to 57%) Bias +0.22 Mean abs. error 1.15 Publisher Target years Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Budget and economic projections 2001 to 2025 40 30% (18% to 45%) +0.65 1.47 World Economic Outlook 1991 to 2025 70 34% (24% to 46%) +0.02 1.21 Economic Outlook 1993 to 2025 66 35% (24% to 47%) \-0.05 1.24 Global Economic Prospects 1996 to 2025 41 41% (28% to 57%) +0.22 1.15 Restricted to the 17 target years every publisher above graded (2001 to 2025): - Budget and economic projections Graded 33 Hit rate (95% interval) 33% (20% to 50%) Bias +0.59 Mean abs. error 1.45 - World Economic Outlook Graded 34 Hit rate (95% interval) 35% (21% to 52%) Bias +0.52 Mean abs. error 1.19 - Economic Outlook Graded 34 Hit rate (95% interval) 38% (24% to 55%) Bias +0.40 Mean abs. error 1.31 - Global Economic Prospects Graded 29 Hit rate (95% interval) 38% (23% to 56%) Bias +0.42 Mean abs. error 1.33 Publisher Graded Hit rate (95% interval) Bias Mean abs. error Budget and economic projections 33 33% (20% to 50%) +0.59 1.45 World Economic Outlook 34 35% (21% to 52%) +0.52 1.19 Economic Outlook 34 38% (24% to 55%) +0.40 1.31 Global Economic Prospects 29 38% (23% to 56%) +0.42 1.33 - CBO year\_1 comes from January or February baselines; IMF, OECD and World Bank current-year values come from spring and autumn editions. --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---