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ResearchCapabilityServicesSignalsAbout
ResearchCapabilityServicesSignalsAbout
  1. Hindsight

Side by side

The same quantity, forecast by several publishers at the same horizon. Publishers are in alphabetical order, never ranked (D17). Where intervals overlap, the publishers cannot be told apart. Bias and mean absolute error are in percentage points.
PublishersForecast vs actualSide by side

Brazil real gdp growth, current year

  • Focus market expectations survey
    Target years
    1999 to 2025
    Graded
    106
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    49% (40% to 58%)
    Bias
    -0.38
    Mean abs. error
    0.79
  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1990 to 2025
    Graded
    72
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    44% (34% to 56%)
    Bias
    -0.35
    Mean abs. error
    1.12
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2007 to 2025
    Graded
    27
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    52% (34% to 69%)
    Bias
    -0.59
    Mean abs. error
    0.98
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1995 to 2025
    Graded
    36
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    31% (18% to 47%)
    Bias
    -0.12
    Mean abs. error
    1.35
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Focus market expectations survey1999 to 202510649% (40% to 58%)-0.380.79
World Economic Outlook1990 to 20257244% (34% to 56%)-0.351.12
Economic Outlook2007 to 20252752% (34% to 69%)-0.590.98
Global Economic Prospects1995 to 20253631% (18% to 47%)-0.121.35

Restricted to the 13 target years every publisher above graded (2012 to 2025):

  • Focus market expectations survey
    Graded
    52
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    54% (41% to 67%)
    Bias
    -0.33
    Mean abs. error
    0.78
  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    26
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    58% (39% to 74%)
    Bias
    -0.39
    Mean abs. error
    0.85
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    25
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    52% (34% to 70%)
    Bias
    -0.59
    Mean abs. error
    1.00
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    26
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    27% (14% to 46%)
    Bias
    -0.10
    Mean abs. error
    1.47
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Focus market expectations survey5254% (41% to 67%)-0.330.78
World Economic Outlook2658% (39% to 74%)-0.390.85
Economic Outlook2552% (34% to 70%)-0.591.00
Global Economic Prospects2627% (14% to 46%)-0.101.47
  • BCB Focus values are the median of market forecasts, sampled quarterly; the others are institutional forecasts.

Brazil real gdp growth, next year

  • Focus market expectations survey
    Target years
    2000 to 2025
    Graded
    102
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    17% (11% to 25%)
    Bias
    +0.42
    Mean abs. error
    1.90
  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1991 to 2025
    Graded
    70
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    19% (11% to 29%)
    Bias
    +0.44
    Mean abs. error
    2.06
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2008 to 2025
    Graded
    25
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    16% (6% to 35%)
    Bias
    +0.09
    Mean abs. error
    1.89
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1996 to 2025
    Graded
    34
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    21% (10% to 37%)
    Bias
    +1.31
    Mean abs. error
    2.29
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Focus market expectations survey2000 to 202510217% (11% to 25%)+0.421.90
World Economic Outlook1991 to 20257019% (11% to 29%)+0.442.06
Economic Outlook2008 to 20252516% (6% to 35%)+0.091.89
Global Economic Prospects1996 to 20253421% (10% to 37%)+1.312.29

Restricted to the 12 target years every publisher above graded (2013 to 2025):

  • Focus market expectations survey
    Graded
    48
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    19% (10% to 32%)
    Bias
    +0.43
    Mean abs. error
    1.81
  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    24
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    21% (9% to 40%)
    Bias
    +0.48
    Mean abs. error
    1.84
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    23
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    17% (7% to 37%)
    Bias
    +0.24
    Mean abs. error
    1.91
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    24
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    25% (12% to 45%)
    Bias
    +0.83
    Mean abs. error
    1.99
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Focus market expectations survey4819% (10% to 32%)+0.431.81
World Economic Outlook2421% (9% to 40%)+0.481.84
Economic Outlook2317% (7% to 37%)+0.241.91
Global Economic Prospects2425% (12% to 45%)+0.831.99
  • BCB Focus values are the median of market forecasts, sampled quarterly; the others are institutional forecasts.

China real gdp growth, current year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1990 to 2025
    Graded
    72
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    49% (37% to 60%)
    Bias
    -1.17
    Mean abs. error
    1.31
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2007 to 2025
    Graded
    27
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    81% (63% to 92%)
    Bias
    -0.42
    Mean abs. error
    0.57
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1995 to 2025
    Graded
    37
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    62% (46% to 76%)
    Bias
    -0.10
    Mean abs. error
    0.67
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1990 to 20257249% (37% to 60%)-1.171.31
Economic Outlook2007 to 20252781% (63% to 92%)-0.420.57
Global Economic Prospects1995 to 20253762% (46% to 76%)-0.100.67

Restricted to the 13 target years every publisher above graded (2012 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    26
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    85% (66% to 94%)
    Bias
    -0.17
    Mean abs. error
    0.34
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    25
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    88% (70% to 96%)
    Bias
    -0.30
    Mean abs. error
    0.47
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    26
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    69% (50% to 84%)
    Bias
    +0.09
    Mean abs. error
    0.59
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook2685% (66% to 94%)-0.170.34
Economic Outlook2588% (70% to 96%)-0.300.47
Global Economic Prospects2669% (50% to 84%)+0.090.59

China real gdp growth, next year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1991 to 2025
    Graded
    70
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    29% (19% to 40%)
    Bias
    -1.46
    Mean abs. error
    2.09
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2008 to 2025
    Graded
    25
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    52% (34% to 70%)
    Bias
    +0.29
    Mean abs. error
    1.04
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1996 to 2025
    Graded
    35
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    40% (26% to 56%)
    Bias
    +0.06
    Mean abs. error
    1.04
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1991 to 20257029% (19% to 40%)-1.462.09
Economic Outlook2008 to 20252552% (34% to 70%)+0.291.04
Global Economic Prospects1996 to 20253540% (26% to 56%)+0.061.04

Restricted to the 12 target years every publisher above graded (2013 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    24
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    38% (21% to 57%)
    Bias
    +0.31
    Mean abs. error
    0.98
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    23
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    52% (33% to 71%)
    Bias
    +0.29
    Mean abs. error
    1.07
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    24
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    50% (31% to 69%)
    Bias
    +0.29
    Mean abs. error
    0.99
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook2438% (21% to 57%)+0.310.98
Economic Outlook2352% (33% to 71%)+0.291.07
Global Economic Prospects2450% (31% to 69%)+0.290.99

Euro area real gdp growth, current year

  • Staff macroeconomic projections
    Target years
    2000 to 2025
    Graded
    101
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    64% (55% to 73%)
    Bias
    -0.23
    Mean abs. error
    0.64
  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2000 to 2025
    Graded
    51
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    53% (40% to 66%)
    Bias
    -0.31
    Mean abs. error
    0.58
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1999 to 2025
    Graded
    53
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    64% (51% to 76%)
    Bias
    -0.37
    Mean abs. error
    0.61
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1999 to 2025
    Graded
    42
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    45% (31% to 60%)
    Bias
    -0.26
    Mean abs. error
    0.89
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Staff macroeconomic projections2000 to 202510164% (55% to 73%)-0.230.64
World Economic Outlook2000 to 20255153% (40% to 66%)-0.310.58
Economic Outlook1999 to 20255364% (51% to 76%)-0.370.61
Global Economic Prospects1999 to 20254245% (31% to 60%)-0.260.89

Restricted to the 23 target years every publisher above graded (2000 to 2025):

  • Staff macroeconomic projections
    Graded
    89
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    64% (54% to 73%)
    Bias
    -0.26
    Mean abs. error
    0.65
  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    46
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    52% (38% to 66%)
    Bias
    -0.35
    Mean abs. error
    0.58
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    46
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    63% (49% to 75%)
    Bias
    -0.39
    Mean abs. error
    0.63
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    41
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    46% (32% to 61%)
    Bias
    -0.24
    Mean abs. error
    0.88
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Staff macroeconomic projections8964% (54% to 73%)-0.260.65
World Economic Outlook4652% (38% to 66%)-0.350.58
Economic Outlook4663% (49% to 75%)-0.390.63
Global Economic Prospects4146% (32% to 61%)-0.240.88
  • OECD 'Euro area' is the euro area members of the OECD (EA16/EA17), not the full euro area.
  • ECB rows are graded against the ECB's own working-day-adjusted history (MPD, September 2026); the other sources against their own databases.

Euro area real gdp growth, next year

  • Staff macroeconomic projections
    Target years
    2001 to 2025
    Graded
    97
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    44% (35% to 54%)
    Bias
    +0.55
    Mean abs. error
    1.38
  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2001 to 2025
    Graded
    49
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    41% (28% to 55%)
    Bias
    +0.63
    Mean abs. error
    1.35
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2000 to 2025
    Graded
    51
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    39% (27% to 53%)
    Bias
    +0.53
    Mean abs. error
    1.28
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    2000 to 2025
    Graded
    40
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    38% (24% to 53%)
    Bias
    +0.65
    Mean abs. error
    1.51
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Staff macroeconomic projections2001 to 20259744% (35% to 54%)+0.551.38
World Economic Outlook2001 to 20254941% (28% to 55%)+0.631.35
Economic Outlook2000 to 20255139% (27% to 53%)+0.531.28
Global Economic Prospects2000 to 20254038% (24% to 53%)+0.651.51

Restricted to the 22 target years every publisher above graded (2001 to 2025):

  • Staff macroeconomic projections
    Graded
    85
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    49% (39% to 60%)
    Bias
    +0.56
    Mean abs. error
    1.34
  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    44
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    45% (32% to 60%)
    Bias
    +0.67
    Mean abs. error
    1.28
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    44
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    43% (30% to 58%)
    Bias
    +0.58
    Mean abs. error
    1.25
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    39
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    38% (25% to 54%)
    Bias
    +0.69
    Mean abs. error
    1.53
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Staff macroeconomic projections8549% (39% to 60%)+0.561.34
World Economic Outlook4445% (32% to 60%)+0.671.28
Economic Outlook4443% (30% to 58%)+0.581.25
Global Economic Prospects3938% (25% to 54%)+0.691.53
  • OECD 'Euro area' is the euro area members of the OECD (EA16/EA17), not the full euro area.
  • ECB rows are graded against the ECB's own working-day-adjusted history (MPD, September 2026); the other sources against their own databases.

India real gdp growth, current year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1990 to 2025
    Graded
    71
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    17% (10% to 27%)
    Bias
    -0.28
    Mean abs. error
    1.35
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2007 to 2025
    Graded
    27
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    15% (6% to 32%)
    Bias
    -0.33
    Mean abs. error
    1.14
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    2010 to 2025
    Graded
    31
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    23% (11% to 40%)
    Bias
    +0.35
    Mean abs. error
    1.61
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1990 to 20257117% (10% to 27%)-0.281.35
Economic Outlook2007 to 20252715% (6% to 32%)-0.331.14
Global Economic Prospects2010 to 20253123% (11% to 40%)+0.351.61

Restricted to the 13 target years every publisher above graded (2012 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    25
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    20% (9% to 39%)
    Bias
    +0.26
    Mean abs. error
    1.53
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    25
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    16% (6% to 35%)
    Bias
    -0.34
    Mean abs. error
    1.12
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    26
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    23% (11% to 42%)
    Bias
    +0.48
    Mean abs. error
    1.64
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook2520% (9% to 39%)+0.261.53
Economic Outlook2516% (6% to 35%)-0.341.12
Global Economic Prospects2623% (11% to 42%)+0.481.64
  • World Bank India rows are fiscal-year forecasts graded against fiscal-year actuals (GEP June 2026 for 2023 to 2025, WDI before); rows whose table does not state the basis are ungradable.

India real gdp growth, next year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1991 to 2025
    Graded
    67
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    7% (3% to 16%)
    Bias
    +0.12
    Mean abs. error
    2.05
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    2008 to 2025
    Graded
    25
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    12% (4% to 30%)
    Bias
    +1.25
    Mean abs. error
    2.24
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    2011 to 2025
    Graded
    29
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    14% (6% to 31%)
    Bias
    +0.89
    Mean abs. error
    2.50
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1991 to 2025677% (3% to 16%)+0.122.05
Economic Outlook2008 to 20252512% (4% to 30%)+1.252.24
Global Economic Prospects2011 to 20252914% (6% to 31%)+0.892.50

Restricted to the 11 target years every publisher above graded (2014 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    21
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    5% (1% to 23%)
    Bias
    +1.19
    Mean abs. error
    2.43
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    21
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    10% (3% to 29%)
    Bias
    +1.21
    Mean abs. error
    2.27
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    22
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    18% (7% to 39%)
    Bias
    +0.82
    Mean abs. error
    2.66
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook215% (1% to 23%)+1.192.43
Economic Outlook2110% (3% to 29%)+1.212.27
Global Economic Prospects2218% (7% to 39%)+0.822.66
  • World Bank India rows are fiscal-year forecasts graded against fiscal-year actuals (GEP June 2026 for 2023 to 2025, WDI before); rows whose table does not state the basis are ungradable.

Japan real gdp growth, current year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1990 to 2025
    Graded
    72
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    39% (28% to 50%)
    Bias
    +0.14
    Mean abs. error
    0.82
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1992 to 2025
    Graded
    67
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    34% (24% to 46%)
    Bias
    +0.00
    Mean abs. error
    0.80
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1995 to 2025
    Graded
    43
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    37% (24% to 52%)
    Bias
    +0.23
    Mean abs. error
    0.98
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1990 to 20257239% (28% to 50%)+0.140.82
Economic Outlook1992 to 20256734% (24% to 46%)+0.000.80
Global Economic Prospects1995 to 20254337% (24% to 52%)+0.230.98

Restricted to the 25 target years every publisher above graded (1995 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    50
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    36% (24% to 50%)
    Bias
    +0.04
    Mean abs. error
    0.88
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    50
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    40% (28% to 54%)
    Bias
    -0.07
    Mean abs. error
    0.81
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    43
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    37% (24% to 52%)
    Bias
    +0.23
    Mean abs. error
    0.98
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook5036% (24% to 50%)+0.040.88
Economic Outlook5040% (28% to 54%)-0.070.81
Global Economic Prospects4337% (24% to 52%)+0.230.98

Japan real gdp growth, next year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1991 to 2025
    Graded
    70
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    29% (19% to 40%)
    Bias
    +0.93
    Mean abs. error
    1.55
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1993 to 2025
    Graded
    65
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    26% (17% to 38%)
    Bias
    +0.68
    Mean abs. error
    1.52
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1996 to 2025
    Graded
    41
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    32% (20% to 47%)
    Bias
    +0.83
    Mean abs. error
    1.38
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1991 to 20257029% (19% to 40%)+0.931.55
Economic Outlook1993 to 20256526% (17% to 38%)+0.681.52
Global Economic Prospects1996 to 20254132% (20% to 47%)+0.831.38

Restricted to the 24 target years every publisher above graded (1996 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    48
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    33% (22% to 47%)
    Bias
    +0.78
    Mean abs. error
    1.26
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    48
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    29% (18% to 43%)
    Bias
    +0.70
    Mean abs. error
    1.34
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    41
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    32% (20% to 47%)
    Bias
    +0.83
    Mean abs. error
    1.38
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook4833% (22% to 47%)+0.781.26
Economic Outlook4829% (18% to 43%)+0.701.34
Global Economic Prospects4132% (20% to 47%)+0.831.38

United kingdom real gdp growth, current year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1990 to 2025
    Graded
    72
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    43% (32% to 55%)
    Bias
    -0.33
    Mean abs. error
    0.78
  • Economic and Fiscal Outlook
    Target years
    2010 to 2025
    Graded
    32
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    59% (42% to 74%)
    Bias
    -0.22
    Mean abs. error
    1.06
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1990 to 2025
    Graded
    65
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    57% (45% to 68%)
    Bias
    -0.34
    Mean abs. error
    0.65
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1990 to 20257243% (32% to 55%)-0.330.78
Economic and Fiscal Outlook2010 to 20253259% (42% to 74%)-0.221.06
Economic Outlook1990 to 20256557% (45% to 68%)-0.340.65

Restricted to the 16 target years every publisher above graded (2010 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    32
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    50% (34% to 66%)
    Bias
    -0.39
    Mean abs. error
    0.76
  • Economic and Fiscal Outlook
    Graded
    32
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    59% (42% to 74%)
    Bias
    -0.22
    Mean abs. error
    1.06
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    32
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    53% (36% to 69%)
    Bias
    -0.60
    Mean abs. error
    0.69
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook3250% (34% to 66%)-0.390.76
Economic and Fiscal Outlook3259% (42% to 74%)-0.221.06
Economic Outlook3253% (36% to 69%)-0.600.69
  • OBR year_1 is the calendar year of publication of each EFO (spring and autumn).

United kingdom real gdp growth, next year

  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1991 to 2025
    Graded
    70
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    47% (36% to 59%)
    Bias
    +0.37
    Mean abs. error
    1.35
  • Economic and Fiscal Outlook
    Target years
    2011 to 2025
    Graded
    30
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    37% (22% to 54%)
    Bias
    +0.17
    Mean abs. error
    1.36
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1991 to 2025
    Graded
    63
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    44% (33% to 57%)
    Bias
    +0.40
    Mean abs. error
    1.33
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook1991 to 20257047% (36% to 59%)+0.371.35
Economic and Fiscal Outlook2011 to 20253037% (22% to 54%)+0.171.36
Economic Outlook1991 to 20256344% (33% to 57%)+0.401.33

Restricted to the 15 target years every publisher above graded (2011 to 2025):

  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    30
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    53% (36% to 70%)
    Bias
    +0.51
    Mean abs. error
    1.47
  • Economic and Fiscal Outlook
    Graded
    30
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    37% (22% to 54%)
    Bias
    +0.17
    Mean abs. error
    1.36
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    30
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    47% (30% to 64%)
    Bias
    +0.31
    Mean abs. error
    1.51
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
World Economic Outlook3053% (36% to 70%)+0.511.47
Economic and Fiscal Outlook3037% (22% to 54%)+0.171.36
Economic Outlook3047% (30% to 64%)+0.311.51
  • OBR year_1 is the calendar year of publication of each EFO (spring and autumn).

United states real gdp growth, current year

  • Budget and economic projections
    Target years
    2000 to 2025
    Graded
    42
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    45% (31% to 60%)
    Bias
    +0.10
    Mean abs. error
    0.84
  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1990 to 2025
    Graded
    72
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    58% (47% to 69%)
    Bias
    -0.23
    Mean abs. error
    0.61
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1992 to 2025
    Graded
    68
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    50% (38% to 62%)
    Bias
    -0.23
    Mean abs. error
    0.64
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1995 to 2025
    Graded
    43
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    56% (41% to 70%)
    Bias
    -0.09
    Mean abs. error
    0.80
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Budget and economic projections2000 to 20254245% (31% to 60%)+0.100.84
World Economic Outlook1990 to 20257258% (47% to 69%)-0.230.61
Economic Outlook1992 to 20256850% (38% to 62%)-0.230.64
Global Economic Prospects1995 to 20254356% (41% to 70%)-0.090.80

Restricted to the 18 target years every publisher above graded (2000 to 2025):

  • Budget and economic projections
    Graded
    35
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    40% (26% to 56%)
    Bias
    +0.04
    Mean abs. error
    0.90
  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    36
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    56% (40% to 70%)
    Bias
    -0.04
    Mean abs. error
    0.60
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    36
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    47% (32% to 63%)
    Bias
    -0.05
    Mean abs. error
    0.68
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    31
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    45% (29% to 62%)
    Bias
    -0.07
    Mean abs. error
    0.96
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Budget and economic projections3540% (26% to 56%)+0.040.90
World Economic Outlook3656% (40% to 70%)-0.040.60
Economic Outlook3647% (32% to 63%)-0.050.68
Global Economic Prospects3145% (29% to 62%)-0.070.96
  • CBO year_1 comes from January or February baselines; IMF, OECD and World Bank current-year values come from spring and autumn editions.

United states real gdp growth, next year

  • Budget and economic projections
    Target years
    2001 to 2025
    Graded
    40
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    30% (18% to 45%)
    Bias
    +0.65
    Mean abs. error
    1.47
  • World Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1991 to 2025
    Graded
    70
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    34% (24% to 46%)
    Bias
    +0.02
    Mean abs. error
    1.21
  • Economic Outlook
    Target years
    1993 to 2025
    Graded
    66
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    35% (24% to 47%)
    Bias
    -0.05
    Mean abs. error
    1.24
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Target years
    1996 to 2025
    Graded
    41
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    41% (28% to 57%)
    Bias
    +0.22
    Mean abs. error
    1.15
PublisherTarget yearsGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Budget and economic projections2001 to 20254030% (18% to 45%)+0.651.47
World Economic Outlook1991 to 20257034% (24% to 46%)+0.021.21
Economic Outlook1993 to 20256635% (24% to 47%)-0.051.24
Global Economic Prospects1996 to 20254141% (28% to 57%)+0.221.15

Restricted to the 17 target years every publisher above graded (2001 to 2025):

  • Budget and economic projections
    Graded
    33
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    33% (20% to 50%)
    Bias
    +0.59
    Mean abs. error
    1.45
  • World Economic Outlook
    Graded
    34
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    35% (21% to 52%)
    Bias
    +0.52
    Mean abs. error
    1.19
  • Economic Outlook
    Graded
    34
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    38% (24% to 55%)
    Bias
    +0.40
    Mean abs. error
    1.31
  • Global Economic Prospects
    Graded
    29
    Hit rate (95% interval)
    38% (23% to 56%)
    Bias
    +0.42
    Mean abs. error
    1.33
PublisherGradedHit rate (95% interval)BiasMean abs. error
Budget and economic projections3333% (20% to 50%)+0.591.45
World Economic Outlook3435% (21% to 52%)+0.521.19
Economic Outlook3438% (24% to 55%)+0.401.31
Global Economic Prospects2938% (23% to 56%)+0.421.33
  • CBO year_1 comes from January or February baselines; IMF, OECD and World Bank current-year values come from spring and autumn editions.
Data, code and grading rules are public at github.com/envisioning/hindsight. Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in the decision log. Think a verdict is wrong? Open a dispute.