# Hindsight: forecast vs actual | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/forecasts --- --- 1. Hindsight --- # Forecast vs actual Every edition’s forecasts for one measure, drawn against what happened. When the thin lines keep pointing the same way off the thick one, the forecaster leans: too high (orange) or too low (blue). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- Source[Banco Central do Brasil: Focus market expectations survey](?src=bcb-focus)[BloombergNEF: Electric Vehicle Outlook](?src=bnef-evo)[BP: Energy Outlook](?src=bp-energy-outlook)[European Central Bank: Staff macroeconomic projections](?src=ecb-projections)[International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook](?src=iea-weo)[International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook](?src=imf-weo)[OECD: Economic Outlook](?src=oecd-economic-outlook)[UK Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and Fiscal Outlook](?src=obr-forecasts)[US Congressional Budget Office: Budget and economic projections](?src=cbo-projections)[US Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook](?src=eia-aeo)[US Federal Reserve: Summary of Economic Projections](?src=fed-sep)[World Bank: Global Economic Prospects](?src=world-bank-gep) Measure (most graded first)United States · real GDP growth (142 graded)China · real GDP growth (142 graded)Brazil · real GDP growth (142 graded)Japan · real GDP growth (142 graded)Germany · real GDP growth (142 graded)United Kingdom · real GDP growth (142 graded)India · real GDP growth (138 graded)World · real GDP growth (130 graded)Advanced economies · real GDP growth (114 graded)Euro area · real GDP growth (100 graded)Emerging market and developing economies · real GDP growth (86 graded)Show ## [World Economic Outlook](/hindsight/imf/world-economic-outlook) · United States · real GDP growth \-5051990199419982002200620102014201820222026%2026-04: 2026 2.3, 2027 2.12026-04: 2026 2.3, 2027 2.12026-04: 2026 2.3, 2027 2.11990-04: 1990 1.7 (actual 1.9), 1991 2.3 (actual -0.10)1990-04: 1990 1.7 (actual 1.9), 1991 2.3 (actual -0.10) - what happened - edition forecast above it, on average - below it - not due yet 33 of 72 editions forecast above what happened, on average across the years each one covered; the mean edition was off by -0.10 %. Each thin line is one edition; hover for its numbers. The actual values are the ones the grading used ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)). --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---