Micro-nuclear reactors

Grader A: miss

No microreactor operated commercially by 2025: Project Pele is in construction with first power targeted around 2028, Oklo Aurora and eVinci target 2028 or later. Russia's 70 MW floating plant is not a shippable micro-reactor.

Test: D37 Horizons: microreactors buyable by ordinary customers outside demonstrations by 2026 for a hit; miss if not available by 2029.

• The Janus Five: 20+ Commercial Nuclear Microreactors, Starting in 2028 (POWER) (2025): Commercial microreactor deployments planned from 2028.
• Sept 2025 update: which advanced nuclear models are likely to hit emerging markets first (Energy for Growth Hub) (2025-09): Microreactor designs still pre-commercial as of September 2025.

Grader B: miss

No commercial micro-reactor operates as of 2026. Project Pele is a military demonstrator targeting first power around 2028; Kairos and others target ~2030. Window open to 2029.

Test: Customers could buy power or units from a micro-reactor by 2026; partial if pilots or by 2027-2029.

• INL advances Project Pele demonstration microreactor with first TRISO fuel delivery (2025): Leading microreactor still a demonstration with first power years away.
• The Janus Five: 20+ Commercial Nuclear Microreactors, Starting in 2028 (2025): Commercial microreactors planned from 2028, none earlier.