Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample (D20).
| Publication | Published | Predictions | Graded |
|---|
Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only (D11). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does (D28).
| Hit rate |
|---|
| Status |
|---|
| 2014 | 2014-04 | 88 | 55 | complete |
| Target year | Hit | Partial | Miss | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2016 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2017 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2019 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2020 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2021 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2022 | 9 | 3 | 4 | |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 2 |