# Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight --- --- 1. Hindsight --- # Hindsight Published forecasts about the future, checked against what happened. Publishers are listed alphabetically; accuracy is shown with its 95% interval, widened by the audit error rate ([D17](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d17-publishers-side-by-side-not-ranked-amends-d6), [D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Each strip shows how a series’ claims turned out, graded part first and claims not graded or still open after the gap. Rates are not lined up on one scale here, because Hindsight does not rank forecasters. [Download the dataset](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/releases/tag/hindsight-2026.2) (release 2026.2, CC BY 4.0). First finding: [how accurate is the Gartner Hype Cycle?](/hindsight/findings/hype-cycle) --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- ## What is checked, and how One mark per publication series; hover or tap it for the series. Each kind of claim has its own test, listed under the grid, and kinds are never mixed in one figure (D6). - ●graded and audited - ◐graded, audit pending - ○captured, not graded yet - [Accenture](/hindsight/accenture) Trends [●](/hindsight/accenture/technology-vision) - [Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz) Trends [●](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas) - [ARK Invest](/hindsight/ark-invest) Targets [●](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas) - [Banco Central do Brasil](/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil) Numeric [●](/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil/focus-survey) - [BloombergNEF](/hindsight/bloombergnef) Numeric [●](/hindsight/bloombergnef/electric-vehicle-outlook) - [BP](/hindsight/bp) Numeric [●](/hindsight/bp/energy-outlook) - [Deloitte](/hindsight/deloitte) Predictions [●](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions) Trends [●](/hindsight/deloitte/tech-trends) - [Envisioning](/hindsight/envisioning) Technology [●](/hindsight/envisioning/technology) Studies [●](/hindsight/envisioning/education)[●](/hindsight/envisioning/health)[●](/hindsight/envisioning/emerging-technologies) - [Eurasia Group](/hindsight/eurasia-group) Rankings [●](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks) - [European Central Bank](/hindsight/ecb) Numeric [●](/hindsight/ecb/staff-projections) - [Future Today Strategy Group](/hindsight/future-today-strategy-group) Trends [●](/hindsight/future-today-strategy-group/tech-trends) - [Gartner](/hindsight/gartner) Predictions [●](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions) Technology [●](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle) - [IDC](/hindsight/idc) Predictions [●](/hindsight/idc/futurescape) - [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change](/hindsight/ipcc) Scenarios [●](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways) - [International Energy Agency](/hindsight/iea) Numeric [●](/hindsight/iea/world-energy-outlook) - [International Monetary Fund](/hindsight/imf) Numeric [●](/hindsight/imf/world-economic-outlook) - [McKinsey & Company](/hindsight/mckinsey) Trends [●](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook) - [MIT Technology Review](/hindsight/mit-technology-review) Technology [●](/hindsight/mit-technology-review/10-breakthrough-technologies) - [OECD](/hindsight/oecd) Numeric [●](/hindsight/oecd/economic-outlook) - [Pew Research Center and Elon University](/hindsight/pew-research-and-elon-university) Surveys [●](/hindsight/pew-research-and-elon-university/future-of-the-internet) - [Ray Kurzweil](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil) Predictions [●](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books) - [Shell](/hindsight/shell) Scenarios [●](/hindsight/shell/scenarios) - [The Economist](/hindsight/the-economist) Predictions [●](/hindsight/the-economist/the-world-ahead) - [TrendWatching](/hindsight/trendwatching) Trends [●](/hindsight/trendwatching/annual-trends) - [UK Office for Budget Responsibility](/hindsight/obr) Numeric [●](/hindsight/obr/economic-and-fiscal-outlook) - [US Congressional Budget Office](/hindsight/cbo) Numeric [●](/hindsight/cbo/economic-projections) - [US Energy Information Administration](/hindsight/us-eia) Numeric [●](/hindsight/us-eia/annual-energy-outlook) - [US Federal Reserve](/hindsight/federal-reserve) Numeric [●](/hindsight/federal-reserve/summary-of-economic-projections) - [US National Intelligence Council](/hindsight/us-national-intelligence-council) Scenarios [●](/hindsight/us-national-intelligence-council/global-trends) - [World Bank](/hindsight/world-bank) Numeric [●](/hindsight/world-bank/global-economic-prospects) - [World Economic Forum](/hindsight/world-economic-forum) Rankings [●](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report) Publisher Numeric Targets Predictions Technology Studies Surveys Trends Rankings Scenarios [Accenture](/hindsight/accenture) [●](/hindsight/accenture/technology-vision) [Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz) [●](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas) [ARK Invest](/hindsight/ark-invest) [●](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas) [Banco Central do Brasil](/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil) [●](/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil/focus-survey) [BloombergNEF](/hindsight/bloombergnef) [●](/hindsight/bloombergnef/electric-vehicle-outlook) [BP](/hindsight/bp) [●](/hindsight/bp/energy-outlook) [Deloitte](/hindsight/deloitte) [●](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions) [●](/hindsight/deloitte/tech-trends) [Envisioning](/hindsight/envisioning) [●](/hindsight/envisioning/technology) [●](/hindsight/envisioning/education)[●](/hindsight/envisioning/health)[●](/hindsight/envisioning/emerging-technologies) [Eurasia Group](/hindsight/eurasia-group) [●](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks) [European Central Bank](/hindsight/ecb) [●](/hindsight/ecb/staff-projections) [Future Today Strategy Group](/hindsight/future-today-strategy-group) [●](/hindsight/future-today-strategy-group/tech-trends) [Gartner](/hindsight/gartner) [●](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions) [●](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle) [IDC](/hindsight/idc) [●](/hindsight/idc/futurescape) [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change](/hindsight/ipcc) [●](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways) [International Energy Agency](/hindsight/iea) [●](/hindsight/iea/world-energy-outlook) [International Monetary Fund](/hindsight/imf) [●](/hindsight/imf/world-economic-outlook) [McKinsey & Company](/hindsight/mckinsey) [●](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook) [MIT Technology Review](/hindsight/mit-technology-review) [●](/hindsight/mit-technology-review/10-breakthrough-technologies) [OECD](/hindsight/oecd) [●](/hindsight/oecd/economic-outlook) [Pew Research Center and Elon University](/hindsight/pew-research-and-elon-university) [●](/hindsight/pew-research-and-elon-university/future-of-the-internet) [Ray Kurzweil](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil) [●](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books) [Shell](/hindsight/shell) [●](/hindsight/shell/scenarios) [The Economist](/hindsight/the-economist) [●](/hindsight/the-economist/the-world-ahead) [TrendWatching](/hindsight/trendwatching) [●](/hindsight/trendwatching/annual-trends) [UK Office for Budget Responsibility](/hindsight/obr) [●](/hindsight/obr/economic-and-fiscal-outlook) [US Congressional Budget Office](/hindsight/cbo) [●](/hindsight/cbo/economic-projections) [US Energy Information Administration](/hindsight/us-eia) [●](/hindsight/us-eia/annual-energy-outlook) [US Federal Reserve](/hindsight/federal-reserve) [●](/hindsight/federal-reserve/summary-of-economic-projections) [US National Intelligence Council](/hindsight/us-national-intelligence-council) [●](/hindsight/us-national-intelligence-council/global-trends) [World Bank](/hindsight/world-bank) [●](/hindsight/world-bank/global-economic-prospects) [World Economic Forum](/hindsight/world-economic-forum) [●](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report) Numeric: numeric forecasts, graded by code: within 0.5 points (rates) or 10% (levels) of the actual ([D16](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d16-grading-rule-for-year-placed-forecasts-revised-supersedes-d10), [D18](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d18-grading-numeric-forecasts-of-rates), [D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)) Targets: dated numeric targets, within 10% of the target figure by its date ([D16](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d16-grading-rule-for-year-placed-forecasts-revised-supersedes-d10), [D23](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d23-when-a-numeric-claim-is-ungradable-amends-d22-for-ark-big-ideas-and-similar-sources)) Predictions: dated predictions, came about by its date ([D16](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d16-grading-rule-for-year-placed-forecasts-revised-supersedes-d10), [D30](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d30-event-and-state-of-affairs-forecasts-in-any-source-extends-d27)) Technology: technology placements, mainstream by its date ([D16](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d16-grading-rule-for-year-placed-forecasts-revised-supersedes-d10), [D21](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d21-hype-cycle-verdicts-from-blind-adoption-timelines)) Studies: study posters, in use in its field, or on sale, by its date ([D37](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d37-envisioning-study-posters-education-2012-health-2012-horizons-2014)) Surveys: expert surveys, the panel's majority view came about ([D27](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d27-year-ahead-event-claims-the-economist-and-panel-majority-views-pewelon)) Trends: trend lists, kept, renamed or dropped by the publisher ([D33](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d33-trend-claims-persistence-across-the-publishers-own-editions-issues-26-to-31)) Rankings: rankings, risks that happened, events ranked high ([D31](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d31-eurasia-group-top-risks-materialised-share-and-red-herrings-issue-47), [D32](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d32-wef-global-risks-surprise-measure-issue-48)) Scenarios: scenario sets, reality inside the set ([D34](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d34-scenario-sets-coverage-issues-32-to-34)) ## How the claims turned out - hit - partial - miss - unfalsifiable or ungradable - contested - not due yet - [Accenture](/hindsight/accenture) - [Technology Vision](/hindsight/accenture/technology-vision)2011 to 2025, 15 publications1 of 3 hits, counts only - [Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz) - [Big Ideas](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas)2023 to 2026, 4 publications - [ARK Invest](/hindsight/ark-invest) - [Big Ideas](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas)2017 to 2026, 10 publicationshit rate 14% (4% to 30%) - [Banco Central do Brasil](/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil) - [Focus market expectations survey](/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil/focus-survey)1999 to 2026, 108 publicationshit rate 38% (35% to 42%) - [BloombergNEF](/hindsight/bloombergnef) - [Electric Vehicle Outlook](/hindsight/bloombergnef/electric-vehicle-outlook)2016 to 2026, 11 publications3 of 9 hits, counts only - [BP](/hindsight/bp) - [Energy Outlook](/hindsight/bp/energy-outlook)2011 to 2025, 14 publications3 of 8 hits, counts only - [Deloitte](/hindsight/deloitte) - [Tech Trends](/hindsight/deloitte/tech-trends)2010 to 2026, 17 publications - [Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions)2002 to 2026, 25 publicationshit rate 70% (56% to 83%) - [Envisioning](/hindsight/envisioning) - [Envisioning the future of education technology](/hindsight/envisioning/education)2012 to 2012, 1 publicationshit rate 75% (53% to 91%) - [Envisioning the future of health technology](/hindsight/envisioning/health)2012 to 2012, 1 publicationshit rate 43% (23% to 65%) - [Envisioning Emerging Technologies (Policy Horizons Canada)](/hindsight/envisioning/emerging-technologies)2014 to 2014, 1 publicationshit rate 75% (60% to 86%) - [Envisioning Technology posters](/hindsight/envisioning/technology)2011 to 2012, 2 publicationshit rate 45% (28% to 63%) - [Eurasia Group](/hindsight/eurasia-group) - [Top Risks](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks)2007 to 2026, 20 publicationshit rate 70% (64% to 76%, audit pending) - [European Central Bank](/hindsight/ecb) - [Staff macroeconomic projections](/hindsight/ecb/staff-projections)2000 to 2026, 104 publicationshit rate 58% (53% to 62%) - [Future Today Strategy Group](/hindsight/future-today-strategy-group) - [Tech Trends Report](/hindsight/future-today-strategy-group/tech-trends)2014 to 2025, 11 publications - [Gartner](/hindsight/gartner) - [Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle)1995 to 2025, 31 publicationshit rate 61% (55% to 66%, audit pending) - [Top Strategic Predictions](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions)2004 to 2025, 21 publicationshit rate 33% (21% to 48%, audit pending) - [IDC](/hindsight/idc) - [FutureScape](/hindsight/idc/futurescape)2014 to 2025, 12 publicationsno pooled rate (see the series) - [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change](/hindsight/ipcc) - [Emission scenarios and pathways](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways)1990 to 2021, 5 publications - [International Energy Agency](/hindsight/iea) - [World Energy Outlook](/hindsight/iea/world-energy-outlook)2000 to 2025, 26 publicationshit rate 10% (4% to 21%) - [International Monetary Fund](/hindsight/imf) - [World Economic Outlook](/hindsight/imf/world-economic-outlook)1990 to 2026, 73 publicationshit rate 41% (38% to 43%) - [McKinsey & Company](/hindsight/mckinsey) - [Technology Trends Outlook](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook)2021 to 2026, 6 publicationsno pooled rate (see the series) - [MIT Technology Review](/hindsight/mit-technology-review) - [10 Breakthrough Technologies](/hindsight/mit-technology-review/10-breakthrough-technologies)2001 to 2026, 25 publicationshit rate 49% (37% to 62%, audit pending) - [OECD](/hindsight/oecd) - [Economic Outlook](/hindsight/oecd/economic-outlook)1990 to 2026, 73 publicationshit rate 43% (40% to 47%) - [Pew Research Center and Elon University](/hindsight/pew-research-and-elon-university) - [Future of the Internet canvassings](/hindsight/pew-research-and-elon-university/future-of-the-internet)2005 to 2023, 34 publicationshit rate 46% (31% to 62%, audit pending) - [Ray Kurzweil](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil) - [Books and essays](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books)1990 to 2024, 5 publicationshit rate 38% (27% to 49%) - [Shell](/hindsight/shell) - [Scenarios](/hindsight/shell/scenarios)1993 to 2026, 17 publications - [The Economist](/hindsight/the-economist) - [The World in / The World Ahead](/hindsight/the-economist/the-world-ahead)1987 to 2026, 40 publicationshit rate 60% (51% to 68%, audit pending) - [TrendWatching](/hindsight/trendwatching) - [Annual consumer trends](/hindsight/trendwatching/annual-trends)2007 to 2025, 19 publications - [UK Office for Budget Responsibility](/hindsight/obr) - [Economic and Fiscal Outlook](/hindsight/obr/economic-and-fiscal-outlook)2010 to 2026, 33 publicationshit rate 34% (29% to 38%) - [US Congressional Budget Office](/hindsight/cbo) - [Budget and economic projections](/hindsight/cbo/economic-projections)1976 to 2026, 112 publicationshit rate 31% (28% to 33%) - [US Energy Information Administration](/hindsight/us-eia) - [Annual Energy Outlook](/hindsight/us-eia/annual-energy-outlook)1982 to 2026, 43 publicationshit rate 46% (45% to 48%) - [US Federal Reserve](/hindsight/federal-reserve) - [Summary of Economic Projections](/hindsight/federal-reserve/summary-of-economic-projections)2007 to 2026, 76 publicationshit rate 51% (48% to 54%) - [US National Intelligence Council](/hindsight/us-national-intelligence-council) - [Global Trends](/hindsight/us-national-intelligence-council/global-trends)1997 to 2017, 6 publicationshit rate 69% (55% to 81%) - [World Bank](/hindsight/world-bank) - [Global Economic Prospects](/hindsight/world-bank/global-economic-prospects)not captured yethit rate 41% (37% to 46%) - [World Economic Forum](/hindsight/world-economic-forum) - [Global Risks Report](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report)not captured yet --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---