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Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

Hindsight

Published forecasts about the future, checked against what happened. Publishers are listed alphabetically; accuracy is shown with its interval where two blind graders agree or a numeric forecast meets its published actual (D17).
PublishersEnvisioningHype Cycle explorerForecast vs actual
  • ARK Invest
    • Big Ideas2017 to 2026, 10 publications
  • Banco Central do Brasil
    • Focus market expectations survey1999 to 2026, 108 publicationshit rate 38% (35% to 42%)
  • BloombergNEF
    • Electric Vehicle Outlook2016 to 2026, 11 publications
  • BP
    • Energy Outlook2011 to 2025, 14 publications
  • Deloitte
    • Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions2005 to 2026, 22 publications
  • Envisioning
    • Envisioning Technology posters2011 to 2012, 2 publicationshit rate 45% (36% to 55%)
  • Eurasia Group
    • Top Risks2007 to 2026, 20 publications
  • European Central Bank
    • Staff macroeconomic projections2000 to 2026, 104 publicationshit rate 57% (52% to 61%)
  • Gartner
    • Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies1995 to 2025, 31 publications
    • Top Strategic Predictions2004 to 2025, 21 publications
  • IDC
    • FutureScape2014 to 2025, 12 publications
  • International Energy Agency
    • World Energy Outlook2000 to 2025, 26 publicationshit rate 10% (4% to 21%)
  • International Monetary Fund
    • World Economic Outlook1990 to 2026, 73 publicationshit rate 39% (37% to 42%)
  • MIT Technology Review
    • 10 Breakthrough Technologies2001 to 2026, 25 publications
  • OECD
    • Economic Outlook2013 to 2026, 24 publicationshit rate 48% (43% to 53%)
  • Pew Research Center and Elon University
    • Future of the Internet canvassings2005 to 2023, 34 publications
  • Ray Kurzweil
    • Books and essays1990 to 2024, 5 publicationshit rate 45% (38% to 54%)
  • The Economist
    • The World in / The World Ahead1987 to 2026, 40 publications
  • UK Office for Budget Responsibility
    • Economic and Fiscal Outlook2010 to 2026, 33 publicationshit rate 36% (31% to 41%)
  • US Congressional Budget Office
    • Budget and economic projections1976 to 2026, 112 publicationshit rate 29% (26% to 31%)
  • US Energy Information Administration
    • Annual Energy Outlook1982 to 2025, 42 publicationshit rate 47% (45% to 48%)
  • US Federal Reserve
    • Summary of Economic Projections2007 to 2026, 76 publicationshit rate 52% (49% to 55%)
  • World Bank
    • Global Economic Prospects1999 to 2026, 44 publicationshit rate 43% (39% to 48%)
  • World Economic Forum
    • Global Risks Report2006 to 2026, 21 publications
Data, code and grading rules are public at github.com/envisioning/hindsight. Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in the decision log. Think a verdict is wrong? Open a dispute.