Inertial confinement fusion

Published 2014-04

Products and services using Inertial confinement fusion are generally available around 2022

Verdict

missTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D37). The auditor agent confirmed it (D11).

Grader A: miss
Grader B: miss
agrees with A, without seeing its verdict
Audit: confirmed
in the fixed audit sample (D11)
Published: miss

Grader A: miss

NIF first reached scientific ignition in December 2022 with net loss at the wall plug (about 300 MJ in for 3.15 MJ out); LLNL's LIFE power-plant programme ended in 2014. No ICF electricity or product is sold.

Test: D37 Horizons: ICF power or products buyable by ordinary customers by 2024 for a hit; miss if not available by 2027.

National Ignition Facility (Wikipedia) (2022-12-05): Ignition achieved December 2022; no commercial ICF power; LIFE programme ended April 2014.

Grader B: miss

NIF achieved scientific ignition in Dec 2022, but no ICF power plant or product exists; commercial ICF firms target the 2030s.

Test: Customers could buy ICF-generated power by 2024; partial if pilots or by 2025-2027.

DOE National Laboratory Makes History by Achieving Fusion Ignition (2022-12-13): Scientific milestone only; no electricity generation.

All captured fields

id: hz-2014-070
category: Energy technologies
kind: technology
target year: 2022
placed year: 2022
milestones: {"scientifically_viable":2014,"mainstream":2021,"financially_viable":2022}
confidence: high
note: Numbered dot (mainstream point) at 2021.2, between the 2021 and 2022 lines, nearer 2021 (read as 2021). Bar from 2013.8 to 2021.6: scientifically viable ~2014, financially viable ~2022. The bar reaches the inner edge of the grid (~2014), so scientific viability may be at or before the chart start. Sub-area: Electricity generation.