| Publication | Published | Predictions | Graded | Hit rate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2024-12 | 4 | partial | ||
| 2024 | 2023-12 | 15 | complete | ||
| 2023 | 2022-12 | 15 | complete | ||
| 2022 | 2021-12 | 27 | complete | ||
| 2021 | 2020-12 | 21 | complete | ||
| 2020 | 2019-11 | 5 | complete | ||
| 2019 | 2018-11 | 5 | complete | ||
| 2018 | 2017-11 | 5 | complete | ||
| 2017 | 2016-11 | 5 | complete | ||
| 2016 | 2015-11 | 5 | complete | ||
| 2015 | 2014-11 | 10 | complete | ||
| 2014 | 2013-12 | 7 | complete | ||
| 2013 | 2012-11 | 10 | complete | ||
| 2012 | 2011-12 | 12 | complete | ||
| 2011 | 2010-12 | 11 | complete | ||
| 2010 | 2009-11 | 10 | complete | ||
| 2009 | 2008-12 | 6 | complete | ||
| 2008 | 2007-12 | 8 | complete | ||
| 2007 | 2007-01 | 5 | complete |
Rule D33. Each trend is compared with the publisher’s next two editions: kept under the same name (persisted), kept under a new name (renamed), dropped (faded), or dropped and brought back later (recycled). This measures the publisher’s own consistency, not whether a trend came true, and is never a hit rate. 15 trends are not graded because a following edition was only partly captured (D36).
5%
persisted, 7 of 151 (2% to 9%)
31%
renamed, 47 of 151 (24% to 39%)
0%
recycled, 0 of 151 (0% to 3%)
64%
faded, 97 of 151 (56% to 71%)
Still open (fewer than two later editions): 19. Audit of the agreed rename checks: 49 checked, 2% residual error.