# Top Risks · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[Eurasia Group](/hindsight/eurasia-group) 3. ›Top Risks --- # Top Risks Rankings · 20 publications Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Publications](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks)[Audit](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/audit) - [2026](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2026) Published 2026-01-05 Predictions 14 Status complete - [2025](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2025) Published 2025-01-06 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 10 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2024](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2024) Published 2024-01-08 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 12 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2023) Published 2023-01-03 Predictions 14 Graded 13 Hit rate 6 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2022](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2022) Published 2022-01-03 Predictions 14 Graded 14 Hit rate 8 of 14, counts only Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2021) Published 2021-01-04 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 10 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2020](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2020) Published 2020-01-06 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 9 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2019](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2019) Published 2019-01-07 Predictions 15 Graded 14 Hit rate 7 of 14, counts only Status complete - [2018](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2018) Published 2018-01-02 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 7 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2017](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2017) Published 2017-01-03 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 8 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2016](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2016) Published 2016-01-04 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 10 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2015](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2015) Published 2015-01-05 Predictions 14 Graded 13 Hit rate 10 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2014](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2014) Published 2014-01 Predictions 14 Graded 13 Hit rate 11 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2013](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2013) Published 2013-01 Predictions 15 Graded 14 Hit rate 13 of 14, counts only Status complete - [2012](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2012) Published 2012-01 Predictions 14 Graded 14 Hit rate 11 of 14, counts only Status complete - [2011](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2011) Published 2011-01 Predictions 14 Graded 14 Hit rate 12 of 14, counts only Status complete - [2010](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2010) Published 2010-01 Predictions 15 Graded 15 Hit rate 10 of 15, counts only Status complete - [2009](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2009) Published 2009-01-05 Predictions 13 Graded 13 Hit rate 5 of 13, counts only Status complete - [2008](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2008) Published 2008-01-07 Predictions 15 Graded 15 Hit rate 10 of 15, counts only Status complete - [2007](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2007) Published 2007-01-02 Predictions 17 Graded 13 Hit rate 9 of 13, counts only Status complete Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2026](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2026) 2026-01-05 14 complete [2025](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2025) 2025-01-06 13 13 10 of 13, counts only complete [2024](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2024) 2024-01-08 13 13 12 of 13, counts only complete [2023](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2023) 2023-01-03 14 13 6 of 13, counts only complete [2022](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2022) 2022-01-03 14 14 8 of 14, counts only complete [2021](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2021) 2021-01-04 13 13 10 of 13, counts only complete [2020](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2020) 2020-01-06 13 13 9 of 13, counts only complete [2019](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2019) 2019-01-07 15 14 7 of 14, counts only complete [2018](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2018) 2018-01-02 13 13 7 of 13, counts only complete [2017](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2017) 2017-01-03 13 13 8 of 13, counts only complete [2016](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2016) 2016-01-04 13 13 10 of 13, counts only complete [2015](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2015) 2015-01-05 14 13 10 of 13, counts only complete [2014](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2014) 2014-01 14 13 11 of 13, counts only complete [2013](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2013) 2013-01 15 14 13 of 14, counts only complete [2012](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2012) 2012-01 14 14 11 of 14, counts only complete [2011](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2011) 2011-01 14 14 12 of 14, counts only complete [2010](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2010) 2010-01 15 15 10 of 15, counts only complete [2009](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2009) 2009-01-05 13 13 5 of 13, counts only complete [2008](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2008) 2008-01-07 15 15 10 of 15, counts only complete [2007](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks/2007) 2007-01-02 17 13 9 of 13, counts only complete - hit - partial - miss Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). ## Risks that happened, and red herrings that stayed calm Rule [D31](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d31-eurasia-group-top-risks-materialised-share-and-red-herrings-issue-47). A top risk is graded on whether it materially happened in the edition year; that share is a calibration measure, not a hit rate, because a risk list is meant to include risks that do not happen. A red herring is a forecast that a feared risk stays calm. The two figures are never added together. 70% 050%100% of top risks happened, 129 of 184, 95% interval 57% to 82% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 63% to 76%. - yes129 - in part46 - no9 - contested1 68% 050%100% of red herrings stayed calm, 49 of 72, 95% interval 51% to 84% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 57% to 78%. - yes49 - in part17 - no6 --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---