Top Risks, 2021

Joe Biden's term opens the era of the asterisk presidency, when the occupant of the Oval Office is seen as illegitimate by roughly half the country … and by the lawmakers these election skeptics send to Congress.

rank 1eurasia-top-risks-2021-001

Neither the coronavirus nor its wide-ranging impacts will disappear once widespread vaccination begins.

rank 2eurasia-top-risks-2021-002

Beyond the headlines, the energy transition will be dominated by competition and a lack of coordination.

rank 3eurasia-top-risks-2021-003

US efforts to enlist allies, vaccine diplomacy, and climate tech competition will further complicate US-China relations.

rank 4eurasia-top-risks-2021-004

To those who say that data is the new oil: Here comes the new Great Game.

rank 5eurasia-top-risks-2021-005

A combination of low-probability, high-impact risks and inexorable technology trends make 2021 the year that cyber conflict will create unprecedented technological and geopolitical risk.

rank 6eurasia-top-risks-2021-006

President Erdogan's misadventures will boomerang painfully against the economy.

rank 7eurasia-top-risks-2021-007

Energy prices will remain low, keeping the pressure on governments that already faced instability.

rank 8eurasia-top-risks-2021-008

Angela Merkel has been Europe's most important leader, and her impending departure drives the continent's top risk.

rank 9eurasia-top-risks-2021-009

The Middle East is the obvious big coronavirus crisis loser among the world's regions; but Latin America is a clear second.

rank 10eurasia-top-risks-2021-010

The incoming Biden administration will be willing to engage on matters of shared interest.

rank 1eurasia-top-risks-2021-011

Big tech will be saved by the political complexities of the problems it poses.

rank 2eurasia-top-risks-2021-012

Absent a clear dash to a bomb, the risk of war is low.

rank 3eurasia-top-risks-2021-013