Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
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Joe Biden's term opens the era of the asterisk presidency, when the occupant of the Oval Office is seen as illegitimate by roughly half the country … and by the lawmakers these election skeptics send to Congress.
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Neither the coronavirus nor its wide-ranging impacts will disappear once widespread vaccination begins.
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Beyond the headlines, the energy transition will be dominated by competition and a lack of coordination.
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US efforts to enlist allies, vaccine diplomacy, and climate tech competition will further complicate US-China relations.
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To those who say that data is the new oil: Here comes the new Great Game.
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A combination of low-probability, high-impact risks and inexorable technology trends make 2021 the year that cyber conflict will create unprecedented technological and geopolitical risk.
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President Erdogan's misadventures will boomerang painfully against the economy.
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Energy prices will remain low, keeping the pressure on governments that already faced instability.
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Angela Merkel has been Europe's most important leader, and her impending departure drives the continent's top risk.
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The Middle East is the obvious big coronavirus crisis loser among the world's regions; but Latin America is a clear second.
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The incoming Biden administration will be willing to engage on matters of shared interest.
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Big tech will be saved by the political complexities of the problems it poses.
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Absent a clear dash to a bomb, the risk of war is low.
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