Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
The 2008 list has nine risks ('Top 9 Political Risks for 2008'). Summaries and quotes from the archived publications page; double spaces are as printed. The red-herrings PDF (0801-18Top9RisksRedherrings.pdf) was archived but damaged and could not be read; red-herring labels come from the press release, which lists China, Taiwan, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Russia's domestic politics. The page says 'six major issues'.
Amid growing unease in the US about domestic security and economic resilience, policymaking in the Bush administration and Congress is likely to move toward increased protectionism in 2008.
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The Iran standoff will remain dangerous in 2008, as the US seeks to impose sanctions while Iran pursues aggressive and defiant policies.
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General frustration with the stalled political process in Iraq could jeopardize the future of the country's central government, even if the security situation improves.
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The risk of a terror attack in 2008 that inflicts mass casualties remains substantial because Al Qaeda and its allied groups have been able to regroup.
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Afghanistan and Pakistan are facing serious political and security problems, and the threat of Islamic radicalism hangs over both countries.
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Increasingly emboldened by Russia's economic growth and political stability, the Kremlin will act as a spoiler on the resolution of key international issues as it seeks to oppose US unilateralism and claim a global role for itself.
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While the election of Jacob Zuma as president of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in December 2007 means that South Africa will face a difficult, uncertain year, it will largely weather the division between the government under President Thabo Mbeki, who will stay on as state president until elections currently scheduled for 2009, and the ruling ANC party under Zuma.
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Despite the ruling AKP's large parliamentary majority, its controversial plan to introduce a new constitution increases Turkey's risk of political instability and distracts from its bid for EU membership.
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Energy policy challenges in Latin America could limit future economic growth in the region.
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