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Landing page lists labels and headline sentences. Full PDF is behind an email form (whitepaper.cfm?fileID=13327) and was not downloaded. The landing page says 2026 US-China conflict is itself a red herring, but the red-herrings page does not list it as a separate herring.
Trump is attempting to dismantle checks on his power, capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his enemies, making the United States the principal source of global risk in 2026.
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China is betting on electrons. The United States is betting on molecules. This year, we'll start to see who was right.
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The Trump administration doesn't want to be the world's policeman but intends to assert direct control over America's own backyard.
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Europe's political center is collapsing in all three major powers at once, leaving the continent unable to fill the security vacuum left by America's retreat.
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The most dangerous front in Europe will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.
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The most economically interventionist American administration since the New Deal will pick winners and losers at a scale not seen in modern US history.
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Beijing won't break out of its deflationary trap this year; instead, it will keep trying to export its way out, flooding global markets with cheap goods at everyone else's expense.
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Under pressure to generate revenue and justify sky-high valuations, some AI companies will adopt extractive business models that threaten social and political stability.
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North American trade will be stuck in limbo as USMCA staggers on, neither dead nor alive.
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Water is becoming a loaded weapon in several of the world's most dangerous rivalries.
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Donald Trump's trade war will keep escalating, causing more economic havoc in 2026. That's a common fear. We don't buy it.
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But that doesn't mean 2026 will be a year of deglobalization.
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