Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Captured from the archived Eurasia Group page (undated URL /pages/top-risks, archived 3 February 2010). Title on page: 'Eurasia Group's President Ian Bremmer and Head of Research David Gordon announce Top Risks and Red Herrings for 2010'. Publication day not printed; January 2010 from archive dates.
The biggest risk for 2010 comes from the point at which these three trends converge: US-China relations.
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By far the biggest purely geopolitical risk in 2010 comes from Iran.
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Political risk returns to the Eurozone in an important way this year, with the consequent blurring of the distinction between “mature” and “emerging” markets.
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On balance, 2010 is looking like a tougher year for President Obama than 2009 proved to be.
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What happens when the ruling party loses power in a one-party state? You get a zero-party state.
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Before Copenhagen, the prevailing presumption was that 2010 would be the year when a global treaty, including the United States, China and India, really got done.
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After years of being wildly bullish on Brazil, we’re in for a bump.
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Coming out of global recession, historically high levels of unemployment are a critical factor in a solid majority of the world’s economies.
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There’s very little "country risk" in the top 10 this year, but trends in Turkey are sufficiently worrisome that it deserves a slot.
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But the real story is going to be a moderate government, growing geopolitical influence, and the most exciting new investment opportunities the region has seen in a decade.
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Iraq’s gain trumps Dubai’s loss in the Persian Gulf, and the rest of the region is doing just fine.
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This year, Russia gets through the downturn and starts to look stable again.
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The status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is much stronger than the hyped commentary.
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All this fear about "finance" running away from New York and London--because of regulatory burdens or growth outside the developed world--is misplaced.
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