Top Risks, 2024

The 2024 election will test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn't experienced in 150 years.

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The region is a tinderbox, and the number of players carrying matches makes the risk of escalation exceptionally high.

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Ukraine will be de facto partitioned this year, an unacceptable outcome for Ukraine and the West that will nevertheless become reality.

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Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence will move much faster than governance efforts.

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Deeper alignment and mutual support between Russia, Iran, and North Korea will pose a growing threat to global stability.

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Any green shoots in the Chinese economy will only raise false hopes of a recovery as economic constraints and political dynamics prevent a durable growth rebound.

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The scramble for critical minerals will heat up as importers and exporters intensify their use of industrial policies and trade restrictions.

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The global inflation shock that began in 2021 will continue to exert a powerful economic and political drag in 2024.

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A powerful El Nino climate pattern will bring extreme weather events that cause food insecurity, increase water stress, disrupt logistics, spread disease, and fuel migration and political instability.

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Companies caught in the crossfire of US culture wars will see their decision-making autonomy limited and their cost of doing business rise.

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Yet we expect the US and China to maintain comparatively stable ties in 2024.

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But Europe's center will hold in 2024.

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The BRICS will not emerge as a China-led rival to the G7 this year—or anytime soon.

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