# Eurasia Group · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/eurasia-group

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›Eurasia Group

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# Eurasia Group

Every publication series from Eurasia Group in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Top Risks](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks)Rankings

Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)).

20 publications, 2007 to 2026 · 279 predictions

[D31](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d31-eurasia-group-top-risks-materialised-share-and-red-herrings-issue-47): top risks publish a materialised share (a calibration measure, not a hit rate) and red herrings a hit rate; the two never merge. See summary-d31.json.

-   hit178
-   partial63
-   miss15
-   ungradable1
-   contested1

1.  258claims
    
    each graded by two agents who cannot see each other's verdict ([D7](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d7-agentic-verdicts-with-independent-agreement))
    
2.  →
    
    234agreed
    
    agreement beyond chance, kappa 0.81
    
3.  →
    
    24settled
    
    the graders disagreed; a third agent decided ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11))
    
4.  →
    
    50audited
    
    an agent re-checked a fixed sample of agreed verdicts: 2 corrected, 1 left unsettled ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
5.  →
    
    257published
    
    1 contested: no verdict publishes
    

How testable the claims were

under 1% no public measure

1 of 258. ungradable: nothing measures what the claim states at its date.

Measured under its own rule, not as a hit rate: share of top risks that happened, and of red herrings that stayed calm ([D31](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d31-eurasia-group-top-risks-materialised-share-and-red-herrings-issue-47)). [See the series](/hindsight/eurasia-group/top-risks).

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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