Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
The report adds an unranked asterisk item, 'Brexit', after risk 10, captured here as ranking 'wildcard'. Red herring labels are from the PDF; quotes from the landing-page summary.
The geopolitical dangers taking shape around the world will bear fruit in years to come.
rank 1eurasia-top-risks-2019-001
Something fundamental has broken in the relationship between Washington and Beijing that can't be put back together, regardless of what happens to their economic ties.
rank 2eurasia-top-risks-2019-002
Hackers have grown more sophisticated, societies have become heavily dependent on digital services, and efforts to agree on basic rules of the road for cyber conflict have gone nowhere.
rank 3eurasia-top-risks-2019-003
2019 will show that populists and protest movements are stronger than ever.
rank 4eurasia-top-risks-2019-004
While the odds of Trump being impeached and removed from office remain extremely low, political volatility will be exceptionally high.
rank 5eurasia-top-risks-2019-005
We're heading for a global innovation winter—a politically driven reduction in the financial and human capital available to drive the next generation of emerging technologies.
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The US-led global order has been eroding for a couple of decades now, but we are now seeing the growing ranks of a coalition of world leaders unwilling to uphold the global liberal order, with some even bent on bringing it down.
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The country's new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, begins his term with a degree of power and control over the political system not seen in Mexico since the early 1990s, and domestic risk factors loom large.
rank 8eurasia-top-risks-2019-008
November's clash in the Kerch Strait was a taste of coming tensions. Putin continues to see Ukraine as vital to Russia's sphere of influence.
rank 9eurasia-top-risks-2019-009
Nigeria faces its most fiercely contested election since the transition to democracy in 1999.
rank 10eurasia-top-risks-2019-010
Why the asterisk? Because three years after the vote, almost any Brexit outcome remains possible.
eurasia-top-risks-2019-011
Brazil's new president Jair Bolsonaro might be a nationalist, but the country's institutions won't allow for any dangerous centralization of power.
rank 1eurasia-top-risks-2019-012
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has made many enemies, but neither he nor the kingdom face serious risks in 2019.
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Iran's need to endure US sanctions by protecting relations with Europe will limit its aggressiveness.
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Suspicion and competition will restrain Russia and China's cooperation.
rank 4eurasia-top-risks-2019-015