Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Labels from the note 'Top 10 Risks of 2009' (5 January 2009, PDF archived). Quotes from the press release of the same day, which summarises each risk. The press release describes the three red herrings as social unrest in China, political instability in the Persian Gulf, and major global climate change initiatives.
A stronger Congress is likely to be more assertive in driving the US economic policy agenda
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The security environment in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan will deteriorate significantly, and the US and Europe will find themselves more directly involved in conflicts in all three states, with little benefit to show for it by the end of 2009.
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While the likelihood of US strikes against Iran has diminished considerably, 2009 is the critical year for conflict (both direct and through proxies) between Iran and Israel.
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The challenges of the financial crisis are likely to produce increased social unrest in Russia-with nearly zero state tolerance for dissent.
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The Iraqi government will face a series of political tests that will determine its ability to keep the country united and move it toward stability.
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President Hugo Chavez's plan for a referendum to reform the constitution and abolish term limits is unlikely to succeed.
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Rising violence and corruption scandals associated with narco-trafficking will continue to raise questions about the government's strategy against organized crime.
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Direct military conflict with Russia is unlikely, but battles between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko will continue to divide the government and complicate attempts to deal with the country's economic crisis.
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The fight between secularists-in the judiciary, military, and industry-and the Islamists in government is becoming a serious obstacle to economic advancement and Ankara's bid for EU membership.
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The African National Congress is likely to keep a majority in parliament and Jacob Zuma should prevail as the country's next president.
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