Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Captured from the archived Eurasia Group page (the undated URL /pages/top-risks, archived 16 January 2011). The page names the G-Zero as the top risk of 2011. Signed 'Ian and David'; the 2010 edition is signed by Ian Bremmer and David Gordon. Publication day not printed on the page.
In the G-Zero, the world's major powers set aside aspirations for global leadership—alone, coordinated, or otherwise—and look primarily inward for their policy priorities.
rank 1eurasia-top-risks-2011-001
2011 will be a year of growing uncertainty for Europe. The eurozone will remain intact, but the risk will grow that the crisis will balloon into something unmanageable.
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For the past decade, increasingly technologically capable hackers and organized crime organizations have elevated cybersecurity as a business risk, but not as a political risk.
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With a sluggish global recovery, especially in the industrialized countries where unemployment remains high, the China growth story will generate more and more resentment abroad.
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In 2011, the North Koreans are likely to take provocative steps against the south despite reasonably strong pressure from China.
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The risk is rising that a number of countries, including those that resisted the urge last year, will impose capital controls in 2011.
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Strong governance is generally considered good for emerging markets, where new policies are needed to make the trains run on time; while gridlock is a fine outcome for developed states, allowing markets and businesses to prosper undisturbed.
rank 7eurasia-top-risks-2011-007
The risk in the subcontinent this year isn't Afghanistan-Pakistan (or Af-Pak, as it's called in Washington). It's Pak-Pak.
rank 8eurasia-top-risks-2011-008
The dramatic increase in the flow of capital into emerging markets has lifted all boats. But there are very different risk profiles among emerging markets, and not all are going to perform well this year.
rank 10eurasia-top-risks-2011-010
Expect more geo-strategic hedging, but no break with the West.
rank 2eurasia-top-risks-2011-012
Despite a great deal of (legitimate) hand-wringing, Sudan's not headed back to civil war.
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Nigeria will continue to prove more resilient than most expect.
rank 4eurasia-top-risks-2011-014