Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Original report 6 January 2020; the landing page now shows a 'Coronavirus Edition' updated 19 March 2020 (https://www.eurasiagroup.net/files/upload/top_risks_2020_coronavirus_edition_1.pdf). The ranking and labels in the original PDF contents page match the landing page. The March update text was not compared risk by risk. Label capitalisation follows the original PDF contents page; the landing page prints labels in capitals.
We've never listed US domestic politics as our Top Risk, but in 2020, US institutions will be tested in unprecedented ways.
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The decision by China and the US to decouple in the technology sphere is the single most impactful geopolitical development for globalization since the Soviet Union collapsed.
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Divergences between the US and China's political structures are bringing irreconcilable differences to the fore, and tensions will lead to a more explicit clash over national security, influence, and values.
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Nation-states are reasserting themselves, presenting corporates with a significantly more confrontational regulatory and geopolitical environment going forward.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spent much of his second term promoting controversial social policies at the expense of an economic agenda. The impacts will be felt in 2020.
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For years, Europe has proven unable or unwilling to effectively push back where it disagreed with Washington or, increasingly, Beijing. This is about to change.
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Climate change will create a collision course for corporate decision-makers, who must choose between commitments to reduce emissions and bottom lines.
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US policy toward the major Shia-led nations in the Middle East is failing. That creates significant risks for regional stability.
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Public anger over sluggish growth, corruption, and low-quality public services will keep the risk of political instability high across Latin America in 2020.
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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has entered a period of steep political decline. With a long history of provocative behavior in response to threats, his weakness will lead him to lash out.
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The new “axis of evil" is unlikely to blow up, despite the headlines.
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The world's advanced industrial democracies remain well-positioned to withstand the populist storm in 2020.
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A big win for Boris Johnson gives Britain a much-needed break from Brexit madness.
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