Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Captured from the archived Eurasia Group page. The page ends with an unranked '? - North Korea' item, captured as ranking 'wildcard'. The introduction is written in the first person by the founder ('When I started Eurasia Group in 1998'); no byline. Publication day not printed on the page; month from archive date.
For the past four years, we've been uncritically thankful for the emerging markets.
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Take a serious look at China and the risks come faster than you can process: labor scarcity, pensions, inefficiency of state owned enterprises, conflicts in the East and South China Seas, clean water availability, clean air, food and commodity scarcity (and prices).
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It was barely more than a year ago that we were talking hopefully about an Arab spring.
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2013 should be a year for reform progress and renewed economic dynamism in the United States.
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There are three current global trends that matter most: China is rising, the Middle East is exploding, and Europe is muddling through.
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The risks generated by the European financial crisis were substantially lowered when, in late summer, German chancellor Angela Merkel rejected the hardline approach of the German Bundesbank leadership and endorsed ECB President Mario Draghi’s commitment to buy the bonds of ailing eurozone countries.
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Geopolitical risk will continue growing in East Asia in 2013 in a new, and potentially more dangerous, way.
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It never fails, we give a speech and we get the question—when is the United States or, failing that, Israel going to bomb Iran? It's very unlikely, especially in 2013.
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India in 2013 will be one of the prime examples of the intrusion of political factors into what had been until recently seen as a long-term economic success story.
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Sub-Saharan Africa, more than any other region, epitomizes the paradox of the shift in economic dynamism to the emerging markets and the significant increase in political risk.
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But there is almost no chance that any of these issues grows into an actual crisis in 2013.
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Sometimes...you just can’t know what's happening. Looking at North Korea this year, that's really the case.
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