# Big Ideas · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[ARK Invest](/hindsight/ark-invest) 3. ›Big Ideas --- # Big Ideas Dated numeric targets · 10 publications Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Publications](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas)[Audit](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/audit) - [2026](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2026) Published 2026-01-21 Predictions 20 Status complete - [2025](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2025) Published 2025-02-04 Predictions 21 Status complete - [2024](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2024) Published 2024-01-31 Predictions 34 Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2023) Published 2023-01-31 Predictions 42 Status complete - [2022](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2022) Published 2022-01-25 Predictions 36 Graded 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2021) Published 2021-01-26 Predictions 36 Graded 13 Hit rate 2 of 12, counts only Status complete - [2020](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2020) Published 2020-02-06 Predictions 28 Graded 10 Hit rate 1 of 9, counts only Status complete - [2019](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2019) Published 2019-01-14 Predictions 22 Graded 9 Hit rate 1 of 9, counts only Status complete - [2018](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2018) Published 2018 Predictions 15 Graded 7 Hit rate 1 of 7, counts only Status complete - [2017](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2017) Published 2017 Predictions 8 Graded 5 Hit rate 1 of 4, counts only Status complete Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2026](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2026) 2026-01-21 20 complete [2025](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2025) 2025-02-04 21 complete [2024](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2024) 2024-01-31 34 complete [2023](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2023) 2023-01-31 42 complete [2022](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2022) 2022-01-25 36 1 0 of 1, counts only complete [2021](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2021) 2021-01-26 36 13 2 of 12, counts only complete [2020](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2020) 2020-02-06 28 10 1 of 9, counts only complete [2019](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2019) 2019-01-14 22 9 1 of 9, counts only complete [2018](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2018) 2018 15 7 1 of 7, counts only complete [2017](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas/2017) 2017 8 5 1 of 4, counts only complete - hit - partial - miss Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). ## 2017: by target year - 2020 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 2 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only - 2022 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2020 0 0 2 0 of 2, counts only 2022 1 0 1 1 of 2, counts only ## 2018: by target year - 2021 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2022 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 3 Hit rate 1 of 4, counts only - 2025 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 2 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2021 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2022 1 0 3 1 of 4, counts only 2025 0 0 2 0 of 2, counts only ## 2019: by target year - 2022 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2023 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 7 Hit rate 0 of 7, counts only - 2025 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2022 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2023 0 0 7 0 of 7, counts only 2025 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2020: by target year - 2022 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2024 Hit 0 Partial 2 Miss 6 Hit rate 0 of 8, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2022 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2024 0 2 6 0 of 8, counts only --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---