Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Cover date February 6, 2020 (PDF re-exported 2020-02-25; file name says 011020). Skipped: about 15 claims without a number or without a date, for example 'the GE9X engine could be largely 3D printed by the late 2020s', 'interest income on banks' credit cards is likely to be cut in half during the next five to ten years' (numeric but only a 5-10 year window; not captured), the Bitcoin section (no numeric dated forecast), and slide-level CAGR labels that repeat captured forecasts.
Ridehailing company platform fees probably will drop from 20-30% today to 1-5% as they evolve into lead generators.
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EVs Are Nearing Price Parity With Gas-Powered Cars
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AI accelerator chips, which optimize deep learning workloads, generated $4 billion in revenue last year and should grow 36% at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to $18 billion in 2024.
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According to our research, streaming revenue should more than quadruple during the next five years, from $86 billion today to $390 billion in 2024.
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According to ARK's research, OTT ad revenues could increase more than 7x during the next five years, from nearly $6 billion in 2019 to roughly $44 billion in 2024.
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According to ARK's research, music streaming revenue in the US could grow at an average annual rate of 18%, from $8 billion in 2019 to $18 billion in 2024.
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Cloud gaming is likely to take share from console- and PC-gaming, growing from nearly $263 million in 2019 to $13.5 billion, or from 0.2% to 6.3% share during the next five years.
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Based on Wright's Law, we forecast EV sales will be 37 million units, six-times higher than the forecasting agencies' consensus estimate for 2024.
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According to ARK's research, automation will add $800 billion to US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2024, and potentially $12 trillion by 2035.
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ARK expects robot sales to quadruple during the next five years, from roughly 420,000 in 2018 to 1.6 million in 2024.
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ARK believes 3D printing will revolutionize manufacturing, growing from $10 billion in 2018 to $97 billion in 2024 at an average annual rate of 65%.
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ARK's research suggests that the 10-year net present value (NPV) of its cashflows is more than $1 trillion today and should hit $5 trillion by 2024 and $9 trillion by 2029.
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ARK estimates that, at scale, autonomous taxis will cost consumers $0.25 per mile
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ARK estimates that NGS revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5 billion last year to $21 billion in 2024.
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ARK believes that the number of whole human genomes sequenced per year should scale 110% at an annual rate, from roughly 2.6 million in 2019 to 105 million in 2024
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ARK believes that the average price to sequence a whole human genome will fall to roughly $200 by 2024.
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Improvements in R&D efficiency could add $9 trillion to the market capitalization of therapeutics companies during the next 5 years.
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In the US, digital wallets could be valued at $800 billion by 2024, 27x the $29.5 billion today.
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digital wallets will reduce the amount of revolving credit card debt sitting on bank balance sheets from $740 billion in 2018 to $483 billion by 2028.
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ARK's research suggests that the 10-year net present value (NPV) of its cashflows is more than $1 trillion today and should hit $5 trillion by 2024 and $9 trillion by 2029.
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Drones should make package delivery inexpensive: more purchase decisions made in-store could move online, pushing global ecommerce from 14% of retail sales in 2019 to 60% in 2030.
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At $0.25 per delivery, autonomous parcel drone operators could be targeting a $115 billion market opportunity by 2030.
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We estimate that revenue from drone food delivery could total roughly $116 billion globally by 2030.
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Drone delivery platforms could generate $275 billion in delivery revenue, $49 billion in hardware sales, and $12 billion in mapping revenue by 2030.
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By 2035, GDP could hit $40 trillion, nearly 40% higher than would be the case without automation, compounding at a 2.4% growth rate instead of 1.8%.
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Since 2012, deep learning has created $1 trillion in market capitalization. ARK believes it will add $30 trillion by 2037.
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