Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Cover date January 26, 2021. Skipped: about 25 claims without a number or without a date, for example the hypothetical bitcoin price impacts (1% of S&P 500 cash; 2.5% to 6.5% institutional allocations; no year), bitcoin trading volume exceeding US equity volume 'in fewer than four years' (no number), US multi-cancer screening market USD 150 billion (no year), allogeneic cell therapy USD 250 billion (no year), orbital aerospace over USD 370 billion annually (no year), satellite broadband USD 40 billion 'during the next 5-10 years' (captured as not dated; not recorded), labor-share and operating-margin conditionals, and hypersonic willingness-to-pay figures.
According to our research, the average time spent playing video games will increase from 1.1 hours per person per day to 1.5 hours during the next five years.
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As our analysis suggests, it could scale from roughly $500 billion to $1-5 trillion in network capitalization during the next five to ten years.
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ARK estimates that at some point during the next five years, drones will deliver more than 20% of parcel shipments.
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Adjusting for the typical trial fail-rate, roughly 170 gene therapies are likely to be approved and commercialized during the next decade.
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We believe that state-of-the-art AI training model costs are likely to increase 100-fold, from roughly $1 million today to more than $100 million by 2025.
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ARK estimates that data center spending on AI processors will scale more than four-fold during the next five years, from $5 billion a year today to $22 billion in 2025.
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According to our research, revenue from virtual worlds will compound 17% annually from roughly $180 billion today to $390 billion by 2025.
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According to our research, during the past 10 years in-game purchases as a percent of total gaming revenue increased from 20% to 75%. They could hit 95% by 2025.
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Based on our research, the global gaming market will increase at a 16% compound annual rate during the next five years, from $175 billion in 2020 to roughly $365 billion by 2025.
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...compound annual rate during the next five years, from $3 billion to $28 billion in 2025.
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According to ARK's research, digital wallets are valued between $250 and $1,900 per user today but could scale to $20,000 per user, representing a $4.6 trillion opportunity in the US by 2025.
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bank interest income on credit cards fell more than 10%, or roughly $16 billion in 2020 and is likely to drop more than 25% further, from $130 billion in 2019 to $95 billion by 2025.
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Based on Wright's Law, ARK forecasts that EV sales should increase roughly 20-fold from ~2.2 million in 2020 to 40 million units in 2025.
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Automation could add 5%, or $1.2 trillion, to US GDP during the next five years. ARK believes automation will boost US real GDP growth by 100 basis points on average per year to 3.4%.
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ARK believes automation will boost US real GDP growth by 100 basis points on average per year to 3.4%.
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If Tesla launches its autonomous ride-hailing service successfully in 2022, ARK estimates adoption could approach 20% by 2025.
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Enterprise value for autonomous platform operators could scale to 3.8T by 2025.
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While not yet commercialized, ARK estimates that drone delivery platforms will generate nearly $50 billion in revenues, $14 billion in hardware sales, and $3 billion in mapping revenues by 2025.
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The market for connected planes, trains, and motor vehicles is likely to reach $36 billion in 2025.
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ARK believes 3D printing will revolutionize manufacturing, growing at an annual rate of roughly 60% from $12 billion last year to $120 billion in 2025.
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ARK estimates that drone hardware revenues will total roughly $100 billion by 2025.
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We estimate that long-read revenues will grow 82% at an annual rate, from $250 million in 2020 to roughly $5 billion in 2025.
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By the end of 2025, highly-accurate long and short-read sequencing should approach cost-parity.
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the convergence of innovative technologies has pushed the cost of multi-cancer screening down by 20-fold from $30,000 in 2015 to $1,500 today and it should drop another 80%+ to $250 in 2025.
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This timeline suggests that the FDA could approve the first CAR-T therapy for solid tumors in 2025.
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We believe that the combination of ARM and RISC-V will move from 0% market share in 2020 to 71% of the server market by 2030.
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For cloud computing, we believe ARM, RISC-V, and graphics processing units (GPUs) are likely to emerge as the new powerhouse processors. Together they could scale at a 45% annual rate to $19 billion in revenue by 2030.
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In the data center, we believe accelerators, dominated by GPUs, will become the dominant processors for new workloads, growing 21% at an annual rate to $41 billion by 2030.
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According to ARK's research, by 2030 most developer PCs could be powered by ARM CPUs, marking the end of the Intel x86 era.
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ARM server revenue could scale 100-fold, from less than $1 billion in 2020 to $100 billion in 2030, a level higher than x86 today.
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ARK forecasts that by 2030 the AR market could scale from under a $1 billion today to $130 billion.
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ARK's research suggests that autonomous ride-hailing platforms will generate more than $1 trillion in profits per year by 2030. In addition, automakers and fleet owners could enjoy profits of $250 billion and $70 billion, respectively.
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Likewise, autonomous ride-hailing could generate 50% margins, but its lower price point should expand the total market from $150 billion in revenues with take rates up to 60%, to $6-7 trillion by 2030.
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By 2030, drone delivery platforms could scale another four-fold, generating ~$275 billion in revenues, while hardware sales grow nearly three-fold to almost $50 billion, and mapping revenues nearly four-fold to $12 billion.
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ARK believes that deep learning will add ~$30 trillion to equity market capitalizations during the next 15-20 years.
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