Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Cover date January 31, 2023. Skipped: about 25 claims without a number or without a date, for example autonomous ride-hail 'widespread commercial adoption within the next ten years', ICE vehicles losing share by 2027 (no number), therapy selection tests adoption doubling to 'more than 50%' (year cut off in text layer), robotaxi launch-year chart estimates, satellite bandwidth 'another 40-fold ... during the next five years' (repeat of 2022), and the per-use-case bitcoin penetration assumptions behind the price targets.
Satellite Broadband Could Generate $84 Billion In Annual Revenue Over The Next 10 Years
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total CTV ad spend should grow 20% in real terms at a compound annual rate, from $21 billion in 2022 to more than $50 billion in 2027.
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US linear TV ad spend should decline 8% at an annual rate during the next five years, from $70 billion to $45 billion by 2027.
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online sports betting in the US and Canada is likely to grow 27% in real terms at an annual rate during the next five years, from ~$100 billion in 2022 to ~$330 billion in 2027.
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ARK forecasts that global NFT transaction volume will grow more than five-fold from $22 billion today to $120 billion by 2027.
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ARK forecasts that EV prices will decline and sales will increase more than 7-fold, or 50% at an annual rate, from roughly 7.8 million in 2022 to 60 million units in 2027.
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In the past four years, charging rates have improved nearly three-fold, from 40 to 15 minutes for 200 miles of range. During the next five years, it could drop nearly four-fold to 4 minutes.
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ARK's research suggests that global autonomous ride-hail platforms will create $14 trillion in enterprise value, based on $4 trillion in revenue during the next five years.
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Autonomous Taxis Could Generate $4 Trillion In Revenue In 2027
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antenna costs could drop from roughly $500 today to $300 by the end of 2027.
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Demand for digital goods and services is likely to grow 17% at an annual rate in real terms, surpassing demand for physically-facilitated goods and services in 2029.
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The market value of disruptive innovation platforms could scale 40% at an annual rate during this business cycle, from $13 trillion today to $200 trillion by 2030.
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Global Real GDP Growth Projections Consistent with Technological History Compared to Consensus forecast
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According to ARK's research, breakthroughs associated with Energy Storage and Robotics alone could add 30% to real GDP by 2030, and AI could dwarf both their contributions.
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Based on our modeling, the cost of training an AI model with 57x more parameters and 720x more tokens than GPT-3 would drop from $17 billion today to $600,000 by 2030.
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AI coding assistants like Copilot could increase the output of software engineers ~10-fold by 2030.
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Wright's Law suggests that by 2030 ChatGPT-style applications will be deployable at the scale of Google Search, processing 8.5 billion searches per day.
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According to ARK's research, AI should increase the productivity of knowledge workers more than 4-fold by 2030.
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If vendors were to capture 10% of value created by their products, AI software could generate up to $14 trillion in revenue and $90 trillion in enterprise value in 2030.
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daily hours worked globally could decline 0.9% on average at an annual rate during the next five years, from 4.7 hours in 2022 to 4.4 hours in 2030
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consumers will reallocate extra time to online instead of offline activities, increasing the share of total waking hours spent online from 39% in 2022 to 53% in 2030.
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real digital revenue should grow 14% at an annual rate during the next eight years, from ~$2 trillion in 2022 to $5 trillion in 2030.
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US digital wallet users will increase 7% at an annual rate during the next eight years, from ~160 million in 2022 to more than 260 million
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the number of global digital wallet users increases 8% at an annual rate, hitting 5.6 billion, 65% of the global population, by 2030.
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Closed-Loop Transactions Could Account For More Than 50% Of Digital Wallet Payments By 2030
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Cryptocurrencies and smart contracts could command $20 trillion and $5 trillion in market value, respectively, during the next ten years.
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ARK's research estimates that the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030
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ARK's research estimates that the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030
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ARK's research estimates that the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030
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smart contracts could generate $450 billion in annual fees and create $5.3 trillion in market value by 2030.
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the enterprise value of companies focused on precision therapies could appreciate 29% at an annual rate from ~$500 billion in 2022 to ~$3 trillion by 2030.
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ARK's base case forecast for gene editing revenue is ~$30 billion, though approvals for diseases like Type 1 diabetes could scale the category to $60 billion by 2030.
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Molecular cancer diagnostics revenues are likely to grow faster than 20% per year, from ~$5 billion today to more than $24 billion in 2030.
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the enterprise value for molecular cancer testing companies should compound at a similar rate, growing from ~$30 billion in 2022 to $145 billion in 2030.
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Based on ARK's electric vehicle forecast, oil demand is peaking and could decline by 5%, or 5 million barrels per day, by 2030 and 10% by 2035.
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ARK estimates that autonomous logistics revenue could scale from nearly zero today to $1-2 trillion by 2030.
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drone delivery fees could total $500 billion for parcels and $200 billion for restaurant meals, ~5X more than ARK previously estimated, by 2030.
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In 2030, e-commerce could capture 35% of the $11 trillion grocery market globally, with robots accounting for more than half of the deliveries.
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Autonomous Trucks Should Become More Cost Effective Than Rail By 2030
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ARK estimates that manufacturing robots and 3D printing could scale at a ~80% annual rate during the next eight years, from $70 billion in 2022 to ~$9 trillion by 2030.
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Adding the adoption of autonomous vehicles ... oil demand could decline 30 million barrels per day by 2035.
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