Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Cover date January 31, 2024 (PDF on assets.arkinvest.com re-exported 2024-10-14). No bitcoin price target appears in this edition's text layer. Skipped: about 30 claims without a number or without a date, for example 'AI could automate most tasks in knowledge-based professions by 2030', US auto loans 'at risk over the next 10 years', AI/ML drug discovery 'within the next decade', generalizable robotics USD 24+ trillion (no year), ride-hail USD 11 trillion addressable market (no year), and the 2040 'possibilities' columns of the pp. 14-18 tables (scenario text, not forecasts).
Globally, real economic growth could accelerate from 3% on average during the past 125 years to more than 7% during the next 7 years
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If so, ad spend on CTV should surpass that on linear TV in 2027.
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charging rates for 200 miles of range have improved nearly three-fold, from 40 minutes to 12, and could drop another three-fold to 4 minutes over the next five years.
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the global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase from 16% of the total to more than 60% by 2030.
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increasing its market capitalization from ~$19 trillion today to roughly $220 trillion by 2030.
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Global money supply has grown in tandem with GDP, and cryptocurrencies now account for ~10% of the total.
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robotaxis have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles ... The number of autonomous vehicles facilitating this travel is ~100 million
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Adopted by 50% of knowledge workers, AI software systems have improved their productivity by 9x on average.
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AI hardware spend of $1.3 trillion supports $13 trillion in AI software sales
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a 40,000 strong satellite network is in orbit ... an addressable market totaling $130 billion annually.
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Adaptive robots have penetrated manufacturing processes enough to increase productivity by 15%, and annual unit sales of humanoid robots have grown to 10% of the number of humans in the manufacturing workforce.
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In other words, the convergence of hardware and software could drive AI training costs down by 75% at an annual rate through 2030.
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the market value associated with decentralized applications could scale 32% at an annual rate, from $775 billion in 2023 to $5.3 trillion in 2030.
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smart contracts could generate annual fees of more than $450 billion and create more than $5 trillion in market value
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spending on digital leisure should take share from physical options and grow 19% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from $7 trillion in 2023 to $23 trillion in 2030.
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Connected TV (CTV) Advertising should grow 17% at a compound annual rate, from $25 billion in 2023 to $73 billion in 2030.
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Social Commerce should grow 32% at an annual rate, from $730 billion today to over $5 trillion in 2030.
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Generative AI could lower labor hours per worker by 1.3% on average, from 5.0 hours per day in 2022 to 4.5 hours in 2030. As a result, consumers might ... increas[e] the share of total waking hours spent online from 40% in 2023 to 49% in 2030.
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Based on the shift toward digital leisure, real digital revenue could increase 16% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$1.8 trillion to $5 trillion, and account for 43% of all leisure spending in 2030.
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total C2B digital wallet payments should increase 20% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$2 trillion in 2023 to ~$7 trillion in 2030.
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the core revenue of Block's Square, Shopify, and Toast should increase 22% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from $7 billion in 2023 to $27 billion in 2030.
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employee digital wallets could generate $25 billion of gross revenue on the $1 trillion in addressable payroll opportunities in 2030.
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the enterprise value of companies focused on precision therapies could appreciate 28% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$820 billion in 2023 to ~$4.5 trillion by 2030.
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these technologies could reduce research and development (R&D) spending per drug by more than 25%
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ARK forecasts that electric vehicle sales will scale 33% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from roughly 10 million in 2023 to 74 million in 2030.
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ARK Forecasts Global Manufacturing GDP At ~$28.5 Trillion In 2030
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According to ARK's research, autonomous electric vehicles should prevent ~10,000 deaths in 2030.
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At 15x EBIT in 2030, autonomous platform providers could scale to $28 trillion in enterprise value, or ~9x that of all auto manufactures in 2023.
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autonomous delivery revenues could scale from essentially nil today to $900 billion in 2030.
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satellite connectivity revenues could reach $130 billion in 2030
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hypersonic flight point-to-point could generate revenues of ~$35 billion in 2030, and potentially reach $350 billion at scale.
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3D printing revenues could scale ~40% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$18 billion today to ~$180 billion in 2030.
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