Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Cover date February 4, 2025. Read from ARK Invest Europe's copy of the report (archived by the Internet Archive); the research.ark-invest.com link is also known. Skipped: about 20 claims without a number or without a date, for example 'Through 2030, we expect the amount of software deployed per knowledge worker to grow considerably', the knowledge-work adoption scenario table (three scenarios, not one forecast), fusion commercialization 'another ~15 years', US nuclear tripling by 2050 (a policy target, not an ARK forecast), and AI power demand compared with China's 2023 additions (no figure in text).
Satellite Connectivity Revenues Could Exceed $130 Billion Per Year
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Enabled primarily by architectural improvements in AI systems, performance per dollar of AI compute is expected to improve >1000x by 2030.
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Disruptive innovation could command more than two-thirds of the global equity market, compounding at a 38% rate through 2030.
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By 2030, we believe AI ad revenue could account for more than 54% of the $1.1 trillion digital ad market.
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ARK research suggests that AI agents could facilitate nearly $9 trillion in global gross online consumption by 2030.
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digital wallets empowered by AI purchasing agents ... could account for 72% of all e-commerce transactions by 2030.
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AI purchasing agents could generate global revenue between $40 billion and $200 billion—ARK's base and bull cases, respectively—for digital wallet platforms in 2030.
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Currently $203 billion, or 0.17% of global M2 supply, stablecoins could grow to $1.4 trillion and 0.9%, respectively, by 2030.
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By 2030, ARK's research suggests that the number of robotaxis will have scaled to roughly 50 million globally, with Tesla at ~50% market share.
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Robotaxis Could Generate ~$34 Trillion In Enterprise Value By 2030
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robot/drone delivery fees and autonomous trucking revenues could reach ~$440 billion and ~$420 billion, respectively, in 2030.
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ARK Forecasts Global Manufacturing GDP At ~$32 Trillion In 2030
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3D Printing Revenues Could Grow ~40% At An Annual Rate To $180 Billion By 2030
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If launch costs decline in line with ARK's expectations, early adopters of hypersonic flight could generate $35 billion revenue by 2030.
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DNA synthesis costs have dropped 100,000-fold (10⁵) and could continue to fall 10 million-fold (10⁷) by 2030.
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Multiomics Performance Should Improve By Orders Of Magnitude By 2030 ... 100x decrease in cost to read DNA ... 1,000x decrease in cost to write DNA
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Autonomous Ride-Hail Will Lower The Cost Of Point-To-Point
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