Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Cover date January 14, 2019. Skipped: about 15 claims without a number or without a date, for example 'digital wallets could upend traditional banks within five years', 'each of these platforms will create multiple trillions in market capitalization over the next decade', the Bitcoin section (no numeric forecast), CRISPR market-opportunity sizes without a year, and third-party figures (Amazon 3,000 stores by 2021; China AI mandate by 2025; disease spending by 2025 from Grand View Research and others).
If deep learning were to achieve the same rate of adoption, it would add $30 trillion to global equity market capitalizations in the next 20 years.
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oil demand could peak next year and, within five years, could drop by roughly 10%, or 10 Mb/d, relative to expectations.
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ARK expects global vehicle miles traveled to increase two- to three-fold during the next 15 years
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ARK believes that the number of whole human genomes sequenced should increase 40-fold from 5 million today to 200 million in the early 2020's
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If Tesla's fleet becomes autonomous, and all eligible vehicles join the Tesla Network, US adoption could hit 8% in 2020.
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ARK estimates that, at scale, autonomous taxis will cost consumers $0.26 cents per mile, spurring widespread adoption.
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Mobile Value Transfers Could Reach $55 Trillion by 2022.
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Thanks to Battery Cost Declines, EVs Should be Cheaper Than Comparable Gas-Powered Cars by 2022
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If the value of a digital wallet customer were that of a bank customer, digital wallet providers could be worth approximately $700 billion in 2023
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**Calculated based on ARK's estimate that there will be 200 million digital wallet customers by 2023.
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ARK is forecasting that electric vehicle sales will rise from roughly 1.3 million in 2018 to more than 26 million in 2023.
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2023 EV Energy Storage Demand 26 million EVs = 1,300,000,000 kWh
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Utility-Scale Energy Storage Should Become Competitive
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NGS Revenues Could Scale From Roughly $4 Billion Today to $20 Billion in 2023.
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ARK's Research Suggests That the Market For 3D Printing Could Scale More Than Tenfold to $94 Billion by 2023.
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ARK Forecast 2025 Unit Cost: $11,000 Unit Sales: 3.4 Million
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ARK estimates AI Accelerator revenue as a percentage of total server revenue could grow from 5% in 2018 to 30% in 2028, creating another $30+ billion opportunity.
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ARK Believes That the Autonomous Taxi Opportunity Should Be Valued at $2 Trillion Dollars Today and $7 Trillion by 2028.
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By 2030, annual insurance premiums could fall by 50-60% to $100 billion
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Autonomous Taxi Revenues Could Reach $8 Trillion in 2035.
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