# ARK Invest · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/ark-invest

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›ARK Invest

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# ARK Invest

Every publication series from ARK Invest in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Big Ideas](/hindsight/ark-invest/big-ideas)Dated numeric targets

Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)).

10 publications, 2017 to 2026 · 262 predictions

14%

050%100%

hit rate, 6 of 42, 95% interval 4% to 30% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 7% to 28%.

-   hit6
-   partial2
-   miss34
-   ungradable32
-   contested1

1.  75claims
    
    each graded by two agents who cannot see each other's verdict ([D7](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d7-agentic-verdicts-with-independent-agreement))
    
2.  →
    
    70agreed
    
    agreement beyond chance, kappa 0.89
    
3.  →
    
    5settled
    
    the graders disagreed; a third agent decided ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11))
    
4.  →
    
    41audited
    
    an agent re-checked a fixed sample of agreed verdicts: 0 corrected, 1 left unsettled ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
5.  →
    
    74published
    
    1 contested: no verdict publishes
    

How testable the claims were

43% no public measure

32 of 75. ungradable: nothing measures what the claim states at its date.

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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