Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Cover date January 25, 2022. Skipped: about 20 claims without a number or without a date, for example Codex share 'likely to increase significantly during the next few years', neighborhood EVs 'will take off by 2026', EV charging-rate and performance-index chart forecasts (no readable number), 3D printing expected penetration by 2026 (table read ambiguously), and the bitcoin use-case valuations per BTC (components of the USD 1 million claim).
According to our research, Bitcoin's market capitalization could scale more than 25-fold in the next decade
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Ether's Market Cap Could Exceed $20 Trillion In The Next 10 Years
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the multi-omics revenue opportunity ... will scale at a 22% annual rate, from roughly $110 billion to $300 billion, during the next five years.
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Since 2004, the cost of satellite bandwidth has dropped 7,500-fold ... Based on our research, it could fall another 40-fold during the next five years to ~$1,000/Gbps
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ARK's research suggests that the cost of end user antennas could drop from roughly $1,000 today to $500 after cumulative production reaches one million units by the end of 2023.
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EV production costs and sticker prices are likely to drop below those of gas-powered vehicles in the next one to two years and undercut them by 25-35% in 2025.
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we believe the market ... is likely to grow at an 18% compound annual rate during the next five years, from $1.8 trillion today to $4.1 trillion in 2026.
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We expect social commerce gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow at a compound annual rate of 41% over the next five years to $3.7 trillion, more than doubling it from less than 10% of total e-commerce today to 22% in 2026.
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We estimate that video game content and services will grow at a 15% compound annual growth rate from roughly $200 billion in 2021 to more than $400 billion by 2026
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We believe the global digital advertising market will grow at a 11% compound annual rate over the next eight years, surpassing $1 trillion in expenditures by the end of 2029.
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We Believe Disruptive Innovation Technologies Are Ready For Prime Time 2020: $14 Trillion ... 2030 Estimate: $210 Trillion
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AI Innovation Could Increase Nearly 10-Fold To More Than $100 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030
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Battery Technology Could Enable Autonomous Mobility, Generating More Than $30 Trillion In Market Capitalization By 2030
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Robotics Advances Could Generate More Than $10 Trillion In Equity Capitalization By 2030
The US Digital Wallet Opportunity Could Scale 69% At An Annual Rate From More Than $400 Billion In 2021 To $5.7 Trillion In 2026.
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The Global Digital Wallet Opportunity Could Scale 78% At An Annual Rate From $1.1 Trillion To $20 Trillion In 2026.
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the equity market capitalization of gene editing and gene therapy companies could grow 54% at a compound annual rate of return, scaling from roughly $130 billion today to $1.1 trillion by 2026.
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Based on Wright's Law, ARK forecasts that EV sales will increase roughly eightfold, or a 53% annual rate, from 4.8 million in 2021 to 40 million units in 2026.
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By 2026, The Enterprise Value Of Autonomous Ride-Hail Platforms Could Be Much Higher Than That Of Automakers Today
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The market for connected planes, trains, and motor vehicles is likely to reach $43 billion in 2026.
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Genomic Technologies Could Drive More Than $3 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030
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ARK Expects Cryptoassets And Digital Wallets To Command Nearly $50 Trillion In Equity Market Capitalization By 2030
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Our research suggests that the market capitalization of AI hardware and software companies could scale at roughly 50% annualized rate, increasing from $2.5 trillion in 2021 to $87 trillion by 2030.
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From 2015 to 2020, the cost to train a GPT-3 sized model dropped 65% at an annual rate, from $875 million to $4.6 million. According to our research, the cost will decline another four orders of magnitude to $500 in 2030.
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the cost to train a neural network equivalent in size to the human brain in 2021 would have been $2.5 billion and is likely to drop 60% at an annual rate to $600,000 by 2030.
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Our research suggests that by 2030 AI will increase the output of knowledge workers by 140%.
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By 2030, artificial intelligence is likely to boost the output of global knowledge workers by 9% at an annual rate, from $41 trillion in expected human labor output to roughly $97 trillion in AI + human output.
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ARK estimates that organizations will increase spending on enterprise software by 42% at an annual rate to $14 trillion a year.
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By 2030, AI hardware companies could produce $1.7 trillion in annual revenue collectively.
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By 2030, we expect these averages to flip, with users spending 52% of their free time online and 48% offline.
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According to our estimates, the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.
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By 2030, we expect Web3 to depress annual offline consumption by $7.3 trillion, boosting direct online expenditures at an annual rate of 28%, from $1.4 trillion today to $12.5 trillion per year.
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ARK's research suggests that autonomous ride-hailing platforms will add roughly $26 trillion to global GDP and $2 trillion in profits per year by 2030.
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ARK's research suggests that autonomous ride-hailing platforms will add ... $2 trillion in profits per year by 2030.
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ARK believes that autonomous logistics revenues could scale from nil today to $900 billion in 2030.
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ARK estimates that 3D printing and robotics could scale at a 56% annual rate, from nearly $70 billion in public enterprise value in 2020 to over $6 trillion in 2030.
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