Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
Published January 21, 2026 (press release; PDF created 2026-01-21). The 'Investment Opportunity Report 2026' (ARK Funds, April 2026) is a separate derivative publication and is not captured. No per-coin bitcoin price target appears in the text layer of this edition. Skipped: about 20 claims without a number or without a date, for example space versus terrestrial AI compute cost ratios (no year in text), capital expenditure as a share of GDP (chart only), innovation share of global equity market (chart only), Starship satellite bandwidth cost points (2026 and 2035, values not legible in text), and multiomics 2030 performance multipliers on p62.
achieving reducing error rate by Moore's Law's pace, quantum computing would not be useful for cryptographic decryption until the 2040s.
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growth in global software spend could accelerate from 14% at an annual rate during the past ten years to 19%-56% during the next five years.
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ARK projects that Optimus can overcome the complexity ratio and reach human-level task performance around 2028, conditional on sustained AI compute capacity expansion
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Capital investment alone, catalyzed by disruptive innovation platforms, could add 1.9 percentage points to annualized real GDP growth this decade.
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According to our research, this category of investment will continue to inflect and could triple to ~$1.4 trillion in 2030.
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AI Agents should capture an increasing share of digital transactions—from 2% of online spend in 2025 to ~25% by 2030.
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AI Agents Could Facilitate More Than $8 Trillion In Online Consumption In 2030
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From 2025 to 2030, AI search could increase from 10% to 65% of global search traffic, as AI-related search advertising increases ~50% at an annual rate.
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AI-mediated consumer revenue could grow ~105% at an annual rate during the next five years, from ~$20 billion today to ~$900 billion in 2030.
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Digital Assets Could Reach $28 Trillion In Market Value In 2030
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bitcoin is likely to dominate the market cap for cryptocurrencies, increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~63% during the next five years, from nearly ~$2 trillion to ~$16 trillion by 2030.
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The market capitalization of smart contracts could increase at a 54% annual rate to ~$6 trillion by 2030, as they generate annualized revenue of ~$192 billion at an average take rate of 0.75%.
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tokenized assets could grow from $19 billion to $11 trillion, accounting for ~1.38% of all financial assets by 2030.
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By 2030, the cost to sequence a whole human genome could drop roughly ten-fold to $10
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According to our research, this volume of data will scale 10-fold by 2030.
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best-fit modeling suggests that the percent of AI-driven diagnostics and devices will scale to ~30% by 2030 and ~100% over time.
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capital expenditure in power-generation must scale ~2× to ~$10 trillion by 2030 to meet global electricity demand.
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Robotaxis Could Generate ~$34 Trillion In Enterprise Value By 2030
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Our research suggests that autonomous delivery revenue could reach $480 billion globally by 2030.
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