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Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

31 editions. Pick a year to see its curve, or follow one technology across every edition.

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2004

complete37 entries

<2 years2-5 years5-10 years>10 yearsobsolete before plateau years low confidenceGrey: no band on the chart. Exact positions where digitized; otherwise spread evenly within the phase on a schematic curve.

Labels and phases from the table of contents of Gartner document 453677 'Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2004' (30 July 2004), as shown on the Internet Archive snapshot of 21 Jul 2019. Gartner's summary says 37 technologies; the table of contents lists 37. Phase headings: On the Rise (mapped to innovation_trigger), At the Peak, Sliding Into the Trough, Climbing the Slope, Entering the Plateau. rank is the order in the table of contents. Bands read from a copy of the chart ('As of July 2004') titled 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2004' on Pinterest (613x467 GIF). The chart has the same 37 labels as the table of contents. Legend: white <2 years, light blue 2-5, dark blue 5-10, orange triangle >10; no obsolete marker is used. Computerwoche's two bands (Wikis 2-5, Molecular Transistors >10) agree with the chart. Labels are verbatim, including the source typo 'UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia' (802.15.3a intended). Computerwoche places Speech Recognition for telephony, IM and internal Web services on the plateau, and WiMAX, UWB, inkjet and unified communications at the peak, which agrees with the table of contents. Computerwoche names Linux on the desktop and internal grids without a phase; the table of contents puts 'Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users' at the peak and 'Internal MPP Grids' on the slope.

Label	Phase	Time to plateau	Confidence	Note
Protein-DNA Logic	innovation_trigger	>10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy.
Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition	innovation_trigger	>10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy. See Molecular Transistors.
Molecular Transistors	innovation_trigger	>10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy. Computerwoche also gives more than 10 years. Two triangles sit close together for Molecular Transistors and Computer-Brain Interface; both are >10, so the pairing does not change the band.
Truth Verification	innovation_trigger	>10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy.
RFID (Item)	innovation_trigger	>10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy.
Trusted Computing Group	innovation_trigger	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy.
Augmented Reality	innovation_trigger	>10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy.
Information Extraction	innovation_trigger	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy.
Wikis	innovation_trigger	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy. Computerwoche also gives 2-5 years.
Social Network Analysis	innovation_trigger	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('On the Rise'). Band read from the chart copy.
Electronic Ink/Digital Paper	peak	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy.
Micro Fuel Cells	peak	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy.
Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices	peak	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy.
Inkjet Processes	peak	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy.
External MPP Grids	peak	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy.
Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users	peak	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy.
Semantic Web	peak	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy.
802.16d WiMAX	peak	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy. Label joined to its marker by a leader line.
Unified Communications	peak	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy. Label joined to its marker by a leader line.
UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia	peak	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('At the Peak'). Band read from the chart copy. Label joined to its marker by a leader line.
LEPs/OLEDs	trough	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Service-Oriented Architecture	trough	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Really Simple Syndication	trough	<2	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Web-Services-Enabled Business Models	trough	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Mesh Networks — Sensor	trough	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Mesh Networks — Wide Area	trough	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
RFID (Case/Pallet)	trough	5-10	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Smartphone	trough	<2	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Tablet PC	trough	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy. Label joined to its marker by a leader line.
XBRL	trough	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Wi-Fi Hot Spots	trough	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Sliding Into the Trough'). Band read from the chart copy.
Location "Aware" Services	slope	2-5	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Climbing the Slope'). Band read from the chart copy.
VoIP	slope	<2	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Climbing the Slope'). Band read from the chart copy.
Internal MPP Grids	slope	<2	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Climbing the Slope'). Band read from the chart copy. Marker sits high on the slope, near the plateau.
Speech Recognition for Telephony and Call Center	plateau	<2	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Entering the Plateau'). Band read from the chart copy.
Instant Messaging	plateau	<2	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Entering the Plateau'). Band read from the chart copy.
Internal Web Services	plateau	<2	high	Phase from the Gartner table-of-contents section heading ('Entering the Plateau'). Band read from the chart copy.