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Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

31 editions. Pick a year to see its curve, or follow one technology across every edition.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2002

complete21 entries

<2 years2-5 years5-10 years>10 yearsobsolete before plateau years low confidenceGrey: no band on the chart. Exact positions where digitized; otherwise spread evenly within the phase on a schematic curve.

Read from a copy of the chart titled 'Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2002' on Pinterest (image 615x370, i.pinimg.com), one of a series of pins for 1996 to 2007 uploaded by the same account. Not read from a Gartner page, so the copy is a repost; its labels, phases and bands agree with every 2002 item in cio.de and Out-Law (see early-editions-1995-2002.md), which supports it. Gartner document 358842 'Gartner's 2002 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies', 28 May 2002, analyst Alexander Linden. The chart has 21 markers. Legend: white = less than two years, yellow = two to five years, crossed = five to 10 years, dark red = beyond 10 years; no obsolete-before-plateau marker. Phase boundaries are not drawn; phase is assigned from position under the axis labels, checked against cio.de where it names the item. rank is the order along the curve, left to right. The Register names 'location sensing' for 2002, which matches the chart.

Label	Phase	Time to plateau	Confidence	Note
Personal fuel cells	innovation_trigger	5-10	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text.
E-tags	innovation_trigger	2-5	high	Phase agrees with Out-Law text. Out-Law calls it 'electronic tags'.
Nanocomputing	innovation_trigger	>10	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text.
Identity services	innovation_trigger	2-5	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text.
Natural-language search	innovation_trigger	2-5	medium	Chart only; no text source for this entry. Marker sits on the rising curve just below the peak; phase boundary is not drawn on the chart. Assigned by position, next to Identity services (trigger per cio.de).
Biometrics	peak	5-10	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text.
Grid computing	peak	5-10	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text.
Web services	peak	2-5	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. Marker is just past the top of the peak, on the descending side.
Personal digital assistant phones	trough	2-5	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. Marker is on the steep descent; cio.de and Out-Law name 'PDA phones' in the trough.
Peer-to-peer computing	trough	5-10	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text.
WAP/Wireless Web	trough	2-5	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. cio.de names 'WAP' in the trough.
Location sensing	trough	2-5	medium	Chart only; no text source for this entry. Label joined to its marker by an arrow.
Speech recognition on desktops	trough	2-5	medium	Chart only; no text source for this entry. Label joined to its marker by an arrow.
E-payments	trough	5-10	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. Label joined to its marker by an arrow; the arrow reads as pointing at the crossed (5-10) marker. Medium confidence for the band.
Public key infrastructure	trough	2-5	medium	Chart only; no text source for this entry. Label joined to its marker by an arrow. Marker is at the start of the rise out of the trough. Mullany's spreadsheet lists 'Public Authentication Services' for 2002; that label is not on this chart.
Bluetooth	slope	2-5	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. Label joined to its marker by an arrow.
Voice over IP	slope	2-5	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. Label joined to its marker by an arrow.
Speech recognition in call centers	slope	2-5	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. Label joined to its marker by an arrow.
Text-to-speech	slope	<2	medium	Chart only; no text source for this entry. Mullany lists 'Speech generation, text to speech' for 2002.
Wireless LANs/802.11s	plateau	<2	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. The chart label wraps; the trailing 's' may instead belong to 'Virtual private networks'. cio.de: 'Wireless LANs (802.11b)'.
Virtual private networks	plateau	<2	high	Phase agrees with cio.de text. Chart text reads 'Virtual private network' with the final 's' wrapped under the previous label.