Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
The first Hype Cycle, from Jackie Fenn's Gartner note 'When to Leap on the Hype Cycle' (Gartner document 484408, dated 11 January 1995 on gartner.com; Fenn's LinkedIn history says February 1995). Read from Figure 2 of R.J. Stone, 'Human Factors Guidelines for Interactive 3D and Games-Based Training Systems Design' (University of Birmingham PDF, page 6), captioned 'Gartner Hype Cycle for emerging technologies, 1995. Source: Gartner Inc.'; Stone cites Fenn and Linden, 'Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2005' (G00130115) as where the 1995 chart appears. The chart has 10 labels and phase names written on the curve. Paul Asel's 'one of ten technologies' matches the count. Mullany's label 'Emergent Computing' is 'Emergent Computation' on the chart. rank is the order along the curve, left to right. The chart has no time-to-plateau markers, so every band is null.
| Label | Phase | Time to plateau | Confidence | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emergent Computation | innovation_trigger | high | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. | |
| Wireless Communications | innovation_trigger | medium | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. Label sits beside the rising curve at about half height. Tempo places it near the peak. | |
| Intelligent Agents | peak | high | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. Mullany calls it the most hyped item of 1995. | |
| Information Superhighway | peak | medium | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. Label joined by an arrow to the curve just past the top. | |
| Virtual Reality | trough | medium | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. Label on the descending side, about half height. | |
| Video Conferencing | trough | medium | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. Label on the descending side, near the bottom. | |
| Handwriting Recognition | trough | high | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. Label under the bottom of the trough. | |
| Object-oriented Programming | slope | high | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. | |
| Speech Recognition | slope | high | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. Mullany says it was climbing the Plateau; the chart places it on the slope, as Tempo says. | |
| Knowledge-based Systems | plateau | high | Phase inferred from the label's position on the curve; the chart draws no phase boundaries. |