25 / 25
claims audited
4%
error rate so far (0 corrected, 1 contested)
Data projectors starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
NCES 2009: 72% of teachers with LCD/DLP projectors used them sometimes or often for instruction; availability far above 5% before 2012.
Test: at least 5% of US public school teachers had projectors available/used by 2014
Grader B
NCES 2009: 72% of public school teachers used LCD/DLP projectors sometimes or often for instruction, well above 5% before the placement.
Test: At least 5% of US K-12 teachers/classrooms used them by 2014.
Educational games starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
Cooney Center national survey (2014): 74% of K-8 teachers use digital games for instruction.
Test: at least 5% of K-8 teachers used digital games for instruction by 2014
Grader B
Cooney Center national survey (fielded fall 2013): 74% of K-8 teachers use digital games for instruction, over half weekly.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 teachers used digital games for instruction by 2014.
Interactive whiteboards starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
NCES 2009: IWBs available every day to 23-28% of teachers; 57% of those with access used them sometimes or often.
Test: at least 5% of US public school teachers had/used IWBs by 2014
Grader B
NCES 2009: 57% of public school teachers used interactive whiteboards sometimes or often for instruction.
Test: At least 5% of US K-12 teachers used IWBs by 2014.
Achievements & badges starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
Open Badges proper stayed small (about 300k badges by 2014), but gamified achievement systems were widespread: ClassDojo points in 1 in 3 US schools by 2014; Khan Academy badges across millions of learners. Hit rests on the broader 'achievement systems' part of the reading.
Test: at least 5% of US schools or students used a badge/achievement system by 2014
Grader B
ClassDojo, a points-and-badges classroom recognition tool, reported use in about 1 in 3 US schools by 2013-14; Khan Academy badges also widespread. Narrower reading (credentialing Open Badges) would be weaker, hence some uncertainty.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 schools or teachers used a digital points/badge system by 2014.
Online school communities starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
Edmodo alone: 7M users in 80,000 schools (2012), 29M users in 210,000 schools (2013).
Test: at least 5% of schools used an online school community platform by 2014
Grader B
Edmodo reached 18M users by March 2013 and about 22M later in 2013, mostly US K-12 teachers and students, far above 5% of US teachers.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 teachers/students used such platforms by 2014.
Video lessons starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
Speak Up 2013: 46% of US teachers use online videos in instruction; 16% create video lessons.
Test: at least 5% of teachers/learners used online video lessons by 2014
Grader B
PBS LearningMedia survey (Feb 2013): 43% of teachers report using online video content in their classrooms; Khan Academy in wide use.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 teachers used online video lessons by 2014.
Open courseware starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
MOOCs enrolled millions in 2012-14; Babson 2014: about a third of US faculty aware of OER and a share used them; well above 5% of learners in higher ed reached by OCW/MOOCs.
Test: at least 5% of higher-ed faculty/institutions or learners used OCW/OER/MOOCs by 2014
Grader B
Babson 2013: 5.0% of US higher-ed institutions offered a MOOC, a further 9.3% planning; MIT OCW and OER already widely used. Meets the threshold by 2014.
Test: At least 5% of higher-ed institutions or learners used them by 2014.
Educational programming tools starts to influence learning environments around 2012
Grader A
Scratch had millions of users by 2012; Hour of Code (Dec 2013) reached about 15M students in a week using block-based tools; Google/Gallup 2016 found 40% of US schools teaching programming (up from 25% in 2015).
Test: at least 5% of schools/students used educational programming tools by 2014
Grader B
Hour of Code (Dec 2013) reached about 20M participants in its first year with Scratch and Blockly tutorials; Scratch was already widely used in classrooms.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 students or schools used them by 2014.
Digitization of books starts to influence learning environments around 2013
Grader A
SLJ surveys: school libraries offering ebooks rose to 54% (2013) and 66% (2015).
Test: at least 5% of US schools offered/used digital books by 2015
Grader B
Speak Up 2015: about 30% of K-12 teachers used online textbooks and 29% of middle and high school students used online textbooks or curriculum in regular schoolwork.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 teachers/students used digital textbooks by 2015.
Tablets starts to influence learning environments around 2014
Grader A
Apple had sold 4.5M iPads directly to US schools by Feb 2013, before the placed year; reached well over 5% earlier than Y.
Test: at least 5% of US schools/students used tablets in class by 2016
Grader B
NCES 2009 already lists handheld devices; by 2013-15 Speak Up and Apple reported millions of iPads in US schools; Edmodo/Google Play for Education built around school tablets. Well over 5% of students had classroom tablet access by 2016.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 classrooms/students used tablets by 2016.
Student-developed apps starts to influence learning environments around 2015
Grader A
Google/Gallup: 40% of US schools offered a CS class with programming in 2016 (25% in 2015); intro curricula of the period (Code.org App Lab, MIT App Inventor, AP CS Principles from 2016) have students build apps. App-building as distinct from programming is not separately measured.
Test: at least 5% of US schools had students building programs/apps by 2017 (abstract-practice test)
Grader B
AP Computer Science Principles (launched 2016-17) requires a Create task in which each student builds a program, often an app (App Inventor, App Lab); offered in about 3,700 schools in 2017, roughly 15% of US high schools. Hour of Code and App Lab extend this further.
Test: Practice test: routine in at least 5% of (high) schools by 2017.
Formal communication #backchannels starts to influence learning environments around 2015
Grader A
Twitter backchannels were used by educators, but evidence is from self-selected surveys of Twitter-using educators (about 30% of such educators backchannel), mostly at conferences; no evidence of routine formal classroom adoption at 5% of classes. Real but niche use.
Test: at least 5% of teachers/classes used a backchannel as a formal class channel by 2017
Grader B
Backchannel use is documented among Twitter-active educators (about 30% of a Twitter-user educator sample) and in college case studies, but no measure shows it routine in 5% of schools; it stayed an enthusiast practice.
Test: Practice test: routine and normal in at least 5% of schools/teachers by 2017.
Portable academic histories starts to influence learning environments around 2016
Grader A
Parchment e-transcripts were already used by about 30% of US high schools in 2012-13 and accepted by thousands of colleges; reached 5% earlier than Y. Blockchain/lifelong learner records stayed niche, but the label's reading is met by e-transcripts.
Test: at least 5% of US high schools/colleges exchanged student records digitally by 2018
Grader B
Parchment's e-transcript exchange connects nearly 9,000 schools and universities plus state agencies; National Student Clearinghouse and state e-transcript initiatives (e.g. Michigan) also run. Narrower reading (learner-owned lifelong record/badges) would be partial.
Test: At least 5% of schools/colleges exchanged student records digitally by 2018.
Student-designed learning mechanics starts to influence learning environments around 2016
Grader A
Student game design (Scratch, Gamestar Mechanic) and student-led project design exist in classrooms, but no survey measures students designing their own learning mechanics as a routine practice; Cooney 2014 shows games used are overwhelmingly made by others. Real but unmeasured niche use.
Test: abstract-practice test: routine and reported normal in at least 5% of schools by 2018
Grader B
Real in game-design schools (Quest to Learn, ChicagoQuest) and game-design units, but those are described as one of two such public schools; no evidence it became routine in 5% of schools.
Test: Practice test: routine and normal in at least 5% of schools by 2018.
Inter-school teaching platforms starts to influence learning environments around 2017
Grader A
NCES: 55% of US public school districts had students enrolled in distance-education courses in 2009-10 (1.8M enrollments), many via state virtual schools and consortia; reached 5% long before Y.
Test: at least 5% of US districts had students in courses delivered from other schools/providers by 2019
Grader B
NCES: 55% of US public school districts had students enrolled in technology-based distance education courses in 2009-10 (1.8M enrollments), many from state virtual schools and consortia shared across schools. Already past 5% before the placement.
Test: At least 5% of districts/schools used inter-school course sharing by 2019 (earlier counts).
Classroom performance dashboards starts to influence learning environments around 2017
Grader A
Google Classroom used by about 15M US students in 2017; NWEA MAP (with teacher growth reports/dashboards) in 23-25% of US K-8 public schools.
Test: at least 5% of US schools/teachers used performance dashboards by 2019
Grader B
Gallup/NewSchools 2019: 65% of teachers use digital learning tools daily; 50% say the tools give immediate and actionable data on student progress, the dashboard function.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 teachers used them by 2019.
Self-paced learning starts to influence learning environments around 2017
Grader A
EdWeek Research Center 2019: 60% of teachers never or rarely use adaptive software for own-pace learning, so about 40% do so sometimes or more.
Test: abstract-practice test: at least 5% of teachers use software to let students learn at their own pace by 2019
Grader B
EdWeek Research Center 2019: 40% of educators use adaptive software to let students learn at their own pace at least sometimes (60% never/rarely); RAND reports on personalized-learning schools document routine self-paced work.
Test: Practice test: routine in at least 5% of schools/teachers by 2019.
Flipped classrooms starts to influence learning environments around 2017
Grader A
Speak Up 2013: 16% of math/science teachers already implementing flipped learning with video; reached before Y.
Test: abstract-practice test: at least 5% of teachers flip instruction by 2019
Grader B
FLN/Sophia 2014: 78% of surveyed teachers flipped at least one lesson (up from 48% in 2012); Speak Up 2013 also reported a notable share of teachers flipping. Self-selected sample, but Speak Up confirms share above 5% before 2019.
Test: Practice test: routine in at least 5% of schools/teachers by 2019 (earlier counts).
3D printers starts to influence learning environments around 2018
Grader A
MakerBot alone reported 7,000+ printers in US K-12 classrooms by about 2019 (US has ~130k K-12 schools, so 5% is ~6,500), plus other vendors and makerspace programs; Y Soft 2017 survey shows wide but restricted educational use. Crosses 5% plausibly but not directly measured as a school share.
Test: at least 5% of US K-12 schools had a 3D printer in use by 2020
Grader B
2017 industry survey: 23% of respondents reported 3D printing used at K-12 schools; maker-space adoption grew to 2020. Sample is not a probability survey, but the share is well above 5%.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 schools used them by 2020.
Assessment algorithms starts to influence learning environments around 2019
Grader A
NWEA MAP Growth computer-adaptive assessment used in 23-25% of US K-8 public schools (5.2M students fall 2019); state computer-adaptive tests (SBAC) since 2015. Reached before Y.
Test: at least 5% of schools/students assessed by algorithmic (adaptive or auto-scored) assessment by 2021
Grader B
By 2018 Utah, Ohio and others machine-scored state test essays; Pearson's engine scored about 34M essays; adaptive practice software auto-grades routinely. Already past 5% before the placement.
Test: At least 5% of students/assessments graded by algorithm by 2021 (earlier counts).
Cascading knowledge maps starts to influence learning environments around 2019
Grader A
Knowledge-space/knowledge-graph engines (ALEKS, Khan Academy's former knowledge map) run behind widely used products, but a student-facing cascading knowledge map is not a measured classroom tool; Khan dropped its visible map. Real but niche student-facing use.
Test: at least 5% of schools/students used navigable knowledge maps by 2021
Grader B
Knowledge-space and prerequisite-map systems are in real use (ALEKS knowledge spaces, Khan Academy's knowledge map from 2012), but the visual, student-navigated cascading map was not shown to reach 5% of schools; Khan retired its map view. No public share measure; real but limited use.
Test: At least 5% of students/schools used such maps as a routine learning interface by 2021.
Desk-sized screens starts to influence learning environments around 2020
Grader A
Products like SMART Table and vendor touch tables are sold to and used in some primary classrooms and special-needs settings, but no evidence of 5% school penetration; the category remained niche against wall displays and tablets.
Test: at least 5% of classrooms/schools used multi-touch tables by 2022
Grader B
SMART Table and similar touch tables have been used in some elementary classrooms and studied since about 2010, but remain a niche product; no source shows 5% of classrooms. Real use below 5%.
Test: At least 5% of K-12 classrooms used them by 2022.
S2S teaching platforms starts to influence learning environments around 2022
Grader A
Brainly, a peer-to-peer homework Q&A network, reported 250M monthly users by May 2020; reached well before Y.
Test: at least 5% of students used peer-to-peer learning platforms by 2024
Grader B
Brainly, a peer-to-peer Q&A learning network where students answer other students, reached 200-250M monthly users in 2020, a large share of school-age students in its markets.
Test: At least 5% of students used peer-teaching platforms by 2024 (earlier counts).
Wall-sized screens starts to influence learning environments around 2024
Grader A
Interactive projection walls and immersive rooms are installed in some schools (vendors report hundreds of installations), but nothing near 5% of schools; standard classroom panels are 65-86 inch boards, not walls. Real but niche use.
Test: at least 5% of classrooms/schools used wall-sized interactive surfaces by 2026
Grader B
Wall-scale immersive displays exist in some universities (CAVE systems) and specialist immersive rooms, but standard classrooms use front-of-room boards and flat panels; no evidence of 5% of classrooms. Window for hit open to 2026.
Test: At least 5% of classrooms used wall-sized interactive displays by 2026.
Mobile learning platforms starts to influence learning environments around 2024
Grader A
Mobile-first learning platforms were mass-market long before Y: Duolingo (130M MAU by 2025), Brainly (250M monthly users 2020).
Test: at least 5% of learners used mobile learning platforms by 2026
Grader B
EDUCAUSE: 91% of surveyed higher-ed students used Canvas Mobile in 2021 and 66% used a mobile learning app weekly; EdWeek reported learning apps' big K-12 presence by 2015. Already past 5%.
Test: At least 5% of students used mobile learning platforms by 2026 (earlier counts).