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AI compute cost · Hindsight | Envisioning

Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

AI compute cost

ARK Invest, Big Ideas, 2025, published 2025-02-04

Publishers Envisioning Hype Cycle explorer Forecast vs actual

Enabled primarily by architectural improvements in AI systems, performance per dollar of AI compute is expected to improve >1000x by 2030.

Source

Verdict

Not graded yet.

All captured fields

idea: Convergence
target year: 2030
metric: improvement in AI compute performance per dollar
value: 1000
unit: x (lower bound)
subject: AI compute cost
page: 8
confidence: high

Permalink

https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/claims/ark-big-ideas-2025-001

Cite

Hindsight, claim ark-big-ideas-2025-001. Envisioning. https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/claims/ark-big-ideas-2025-001

Dispute this verdict

Data, code and grading rules are public at github.com/envisioning/hindsight. Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in the decision log. Think a verdict is wrong? Open a dispute.