Self-driving vehicles

Grader A: miss

Fully self-driving vehicles stayed far below 5% of trips or vehicles by 2024 (placed year 2019 + 5). Waymo, the leader, gave about 50,000 paid rides per week in May 2024 and 100,000 in Sept 2024, while Uber completed more than 1m trips per hour. Even at 450,000 weekly rides in Dec 2025, robotaxis were well under 1% of US ride-hailing.

Test: User share: robotaxi trips well under 1% of US ride-hailing trips (Waymo 100k/week vs Uber over 1m/hour, 2024).

• Waymo Robotaxis Are Giving 100,000 Rides a Week (2024-09-05): Waymo at 100,000 paid rides per week in Sept 2024.
• Waymo's skyrocketing ridership in one chart (2026-03-27): Waymo grew from 50,000 weekly paid rides (May 2024) to 500,000 (2026); still a sliver of Uber's more than 1m trips per hour.

Grader B: miss

Fully self-driving vehicles stayed limited to robotaxi services in a few cities. Waymo started driverless public rides in Phoenix in 2020 and ran about 3,000 robotaxis in 10 metro areas by March 2026. Cruise stopped operations in 2024. Most cars sold have Level 2 driver assistance only. Share of vehicles or trips was far under 5% by 2024.

Test: 20% of target users: about 3,000 Waymo robotaxis in 2026 against about 290 million US vehicles; far under 1%

• Waymo (2026): First public service without safety drivers October 2020; 3,000 robotaxis and 500,000 paid rides per week in 10 metro areas as of March 2026.
• Self-driving car (2026): No Level 5 system; driverless taxis only in designated cities; Cruise ceased operations in 2024; most systems Level 2.