7 / 7
claims audited
14%
error rate so far (0 corrected, 1 contested)
$101.5 billion Projected spending on service providers in digital trust by 2025
Grader A
Footnote defines service providers as consultants, hardware support, implementation and outsourcing, which is Gartner's 'security services' segment. Gartner (July 2025) puts 2025 security services end-user spending at $83.8 bn. Error (101.5-83.8)/83.8 = +21% -> partial. Slide sources list McKinsey Cyber Market Map among others and do not attribute the figure to a third-party forecaster, so it is graded as McKinsey's. Only one public estimate on this definition found.
Test: D16 numeric rule: within 10% of actual 2025 worldwide security-services spending = hit, within 25% = partial.
Grader B
The slide's footnote defines service providers as consultants, hardware support, implementation and outsourcing, which matches Gartner's 'security services' segment. The figure is not attributed to a third party on the slide (sources list CSIS, IBM, ITRC, Kaspersky, NCSC, PurpleSec, Statista, McKinsey Cyber Market Map, MGI), so it is graded. Gartner's July 2025 forecast puts 2025 security services at $83.8 billion (2024: $77.1 billion). Error (101.5-83.8)/83.8 = +21% -> within 25% -> partial. Definition match is close but not certain.
Test: Worldwide security-services spending in 2025 within 10% (hit) / 25% (partial) of $101.5 billion (D16 numeric, level).
we anticipate significant growth across metrics in 2023.
Grader A
Gen AI funding nearly octupled to $25.2 bn in 2023 (Stanford AI Index); the 2024 edition reports gen AI equity investment of $36 bn in 2023 and job postings +111% 2022-23; the 2023 edition itself says gen AI 'ranked comparatively low on interest, investment, and innovation in 2022'. Interest (searches/news) surged after ChatGPT. Growth was large on every measure named.
Test: State of affairs (D30): 2023 values of gen AI investment and talent demand (and interest) significantly above 2022.
Grader B
Equity/private investment in gen AI rose from about $5B (2022) to $36B (2023) per McKinsey's 2024 data, and Stanford AI Index reports gen AI private funding nearly octupled to $25.2B in 2023 despite overall AI investment falling. Gen AI job postings rose 111% 2022-23. Interest (ChatGPT adoption) and innovation also surged. Held in 2023 -> hit.
Test: D30 state of affairs: gen AI equity investment and job postings both rose substantially in 2023 vs 2022 (direction plus 'significant' = large rise).
Hiring demand in 2023 will likely be significantly higher due to increased interest and investment.
Grader A
The 2024 edition, using the same job-postings measure, reports gen AI job postings +111% from 2022 to 2023 while overall tech-trend postings fell 26%. Direction right and size large. Independent signal: gen AI funding nearly 8x in 2023 (AI Index), the stated driver.
Test: State of affairs (D30): gen AI job postings in 2023 significantly above 2022 (a large positive change, not a few percent).
Grader B
Gen AI job postings rose 111% from 2022 to 2023 (2024 edition data, measured on the same job-postings series used in the 2023 edition). Direction right and large -> hit.
Test: D30: gen AI job postings in 2023 substantially above 2022 (direction graded).
New VR headsets are also expected throughout 2023, and peripheral devices (for example, haptics and displays) continue to advance
Grader A
Meta Quest 3 released 10 October 2023; Apple Vision Pro announced June 2023 (shipped Feb 2024); PlayStation VR2 shipped Feb 2023. New headsets came out through 2023 as stated.
Test: Event (D30): at least one notable new VR headset released in calendar 2023 after publication (July 2023).
Grader B
PlayStation VR2 released 22 Feb 2023; Meta Quest 3 released 10 Oct 2023; Apple Vision Pro announced June 2023 (shipped Feb 2024). Happened in 2023 -> hit.
Test: D30 event: at least one major new VR headset launched in calendar 2023.
Several new highly anticipated launch vehicles are expected to debut in 2023 and 2024, including the SpaceX’s superheavy Starship, designed to carry larger loads; the Vulcan Centaur, from United Launch Alliance, which is designed to carry satellites into orbit; and Blue Origin’s New Glenn
Grader A
Starship first integrated flight 20 Apr 2023 (before publication but inside the stated 2023-2024 window); Vulcan Centaur maiden flight 8 Jan 2024; New Glenn first flight NG-1 on 16 Jan 2025, 16 days after the window. Two of three in the window, the third in the year after -> partial under D30.
Test: Event (D30): all three first flights by 31 Dec 2024; partial if some within the window or all in full in 2025.
Grader B
Starship first integrated flight 20 Apr 2023 and Vulcan maiden flight 8 Jan 2024 were inside the window; New Glenn first launched 16 Jan 2025, in the year after. Two of three in the window and the third in full the year after -> partial.
Test: D30 event: all three named vehicles flew for the first time by end-2024 (hit); some by end-2024 or all by end-2025 (partial).
As we progress through 2024 and beyond, we anticipate organizations investing in the risk mitigation, operating model, talent, and technological capabilities required to scale gen AI.
Grader A
AI Index 2025: organizational AI use rose to 78% in 2024 from 55% in 2023; gen AI private investment $33.9 bn in 2024 (+18.7%); US private AI investment $109.1 bn. The report notes a gap between recognizing responsible-AI risks and acting, but the claim is that organizations invest, which held. Vague but one dominant reading; graded on it.
Test: State of affairs (D30): in 2024 organizations' spending and adoption for gen AI rose (investment, adoption, talent), i.e. organizations were investing to scale it.
Grader B
Menlo Ventures' enterprise survey: enterprise gen AI spending reached $13.8B in 2024, about 6x 2023 ($2.3B); application-layer spend almost 8x. Investment in technology and talent to scale gen AI clearly happened in 2024. The risk/operating-model components lack a separate measure, but the dominant reading (organizations invest to scale gen AI) held -> hit.
Test: D30 state of affairs: enterprise spending on gen AI capabilities rose materially in 2024.
While 2023 was mostly focused on training foundation models for AI, companies are expected to begin performing inference at scale on their models in 2024.
Grader A
Google processed 9.7 trillion tokens a month in May 2024 (480 trillion a year later), i.e. inference at very large scale in 2024. Nvidia already estimated ~40% of fiscal-2024 (Feb 2023-Jan 2024) data-center revenue was for inference, so 'begin' occurred partly before 2024; under D30's early-event rule this still counts because the state also held, and grew, in 2024.
Test: State of affairs (D30): large-scale production inference in 2024, shown by inference volumes or inference share of AI compute revenue.
Grader B
Nvidia estimated that about 40% of its Data Center revenue in fiscal 2024 (to Jan 2024) was for AI inference, and over 40% for the trailing four quarters to Q2 FY2025 (mid-2024). Inference at scale held in 2024 (it was already under way, but D30 early occurrence counts because it also holds in 2024) -> hit.
Test: D30 state of affairs: inference is a large share of AI compute demand during 2024.