# Technology Trends Outlook · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[McKinsey & Company](/hindsight/mckinsey) 3. ›Technology Trends Outlook --- # Technology Trends Outlook Trend lists · 6 publications Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Publications](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook)[Audit](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/audit) - [2026](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2026) Published 2026-09-15 Predictions 17 Status partial - [2025](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2025) Published 2025-07 Predictions 29 Status complete - [2024](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2024) Published 2024-07 Predictions 22 Graded 3 Hit rate 3 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2023) Published 2023-07 Predictions 28 Graded 4 Hit rate 3 of 4, counts only Status complete - [2022](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2022) Published 2022-08 Predictions 36 Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2021) Published 2021-06 Predictions 16 Status complete Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2026](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2026) 2026-09-15 17 partial [2025](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2025) 2025-07 29 complete [2024](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2024) 2024-07 22 3 3 of 3, counts only complete [2023](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2023) 2023-07 28 4 3 of 4, counts only complete [2022](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2022) 2022-08 36 complete [2021](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook/2021) 2021-06 16 complete - hit - partial - miss Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). ## 2023: by target year - 2023 Hit 3 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 3 of 3, counts only - 2024 Hit 0 Partial 1 Miss 0 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2023 3 0 0 3 of 3, counts only 2024 0 1 0 0 of 1, counts only ## 2024: by target year - 2024 Hit 2 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 2 of 2, counts only - 2025 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2024 2 0 0 2 of 2, counts only 2025 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## Which trends the publisher kept Rule [D33](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d33-trend-claims-persistence-across-the-publishers-own-editions-issues-26-to-31). Each trend is compared with the publisher’s next two editions: kept under the same name (persisted), kept under a new name (renamed), dropped (faded), or dropped and brought back later (recycled). This measures the publisher’s own consistency, not whether a trend came true, and is never a hit rate. - persisted37 - renamed14 - faded3 - open27 69% persisted, 37 of 54 (55% to 79%) 26% renamed, 14 of 54 (16% to 39%) 0% recycled, 0 of 54 (0% to 7%) 6% faded, 3 of 54 (2% to 15%) Still open (fewer than two later editions): 27. Audit of the agreed rename checks: 17 checked, 0% residual error. --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---