Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample (D20).
Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only (D11). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does (D28).
| Target year | Hit | Partial | Miss | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2024 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Target year | Hit | Partial | Miss | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rule D33. Each trend is compared with the publisher’s next two editions: kept under the same name (persisted), kept under a new name (renamed), dropped (faded), or dropped and brought back later (recycled). This measures the publisher’s own consistency, not whether a trend came true, and is never a hit rate.
69%
persisted, 37 of 54 (55% to 79%)
26%
renamed, 14 of 54 (16% to 39%)
0%
recycled, 0 of 54 (0% to 7%)
6%
faded, 3 of 54 (2% to 15%)
Still open (fewer than two later editions): 27. Audit of the agreed rename checks: 17 checked, 0% residual error.