# McKinsey & Company · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/mckinsey

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›McKinsey & Company

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# McKinsey & Company

Every publication series from McKinsey & Company in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Technology Trends Outlook](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook)Trend lists

Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)).

6 publications, 2021 to 2026 · 148 predictions

[D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds): 7 graded claims, fewer than 20; counts only.

-   hit6
-   partial1
-   unfalsifiable2
-   ungradable10
-   contested1

1.  20claims
    
    each graded by two agents who cannot see each other's verdict ([D7](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d7-agentic-verdicts-with-independent-agreement))
    
2.  →
    
    19agreed
    
    agreement beyond chance, kappa 0.92
    
3.  →
    
    1settled
    
    the graders disagreed; a third agent decided ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11))
    
4.  →
    
    7audited
    
    an agent re-checked a fixed sample of agreed verdicts: 0 corrected, 1 left unsettled ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
5.  →
    
    19published
    
    1 contested: no verdict publishes
    

How testable the claims were

10% too vague to test

2 of 20. unfalsifiable: the plausible readings give different verdicts.

50% no public measure

10 of 20. ungradable: nothing measures what the claim states at its date.

Measured under its own rule, not as a hit rate: which trends the publisher kept, renamed or dropped ([D33](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d33-trend-claims-persistence-across-the-publishers-own-editions-issues-26-to-31)). [See the series](/hindsight/mckinsey/technology-trends-outlook).

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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