6 publications, 2021 to 2026 · 148 predictions
D11: 7 graded claims, fewer than 20; counts only.
20claims
each graded by two agents who cannot see each other's verdict (D7)
19agreed
agreement beyond chance, kappa 0.92
1settled
the graders disagreed; a third agent decided (D20)
7audited
an agent re-checked a fixed sample of agreed verdicts: 0 corrected, 1 left unsettled (D11)
19published
1 contested: no verdict publishes
How testable the claims were
10% too vague to test
2 of 20. unfalsifiable: the plausible readings give different verdicts.
50% no public measure
10 of 20. ungradable: nothing measures what the claim states at its date.
Measured under its own rule, not as a hit rate: which trends the publisher kept, renamed or dropped (D33). See the series.
Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample (D20).