# Global Risks Report · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[World Economic Forum](/hindsight/world-economic-forum) 3. ›Global Risks Report --- # Global Risks Report Rankings · 21 publications Validated: two blind event lists, two blind matchers and an adjudicator ([D32](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d32-wef-global-risks-surprise-measure-issue-48)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- - [2026](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2026) Published 2026-01 Predictions 28 Status complete - [2025](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2025) Published 2025-01 Predictions 27 Status complete - [2024](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2024) Published 2024-01 Predictions 25 Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2023) Published 2023-01 Predictions 20 Status complete - [2022](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2022) Published 2022-01 Predictions 40 Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2021) Published 2021-01 Predictions 44 Status complete - [2020](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2020) Published 2020-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2019](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2019) Published 2019-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2018](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2018) Published 2018-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2017](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2017) Published 2017-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2016](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2016) Published 2016-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2015](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2015) Published 2015-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2014](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2014) Published 2014-01 Predictions 20 Status complete - [2013](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2013) Published 2013-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2012](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2012) Published 2012-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2011](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2011) Published 2011-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2010](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2010) Published 2010-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2009](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2009) Published 2009-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2008](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2008) Published 2008-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2007](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2007) Published 2007-01 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2006](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2006) Published 2006-01 Predictions 21 Status complete Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2026](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2026) 2026-01 28 complete [2025](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2025) 2025-01 27 complete [2024](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2024) 2024-01 25 complete [2023](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2023) 2023-01 20 complete [2022](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2022) 2022-01 40 complete [2021](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2021) 2021-01 44 complete [2020](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2020) 2020-01 10 complete [2019](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2019) 2019-01 10 complete [2018](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2018) 2018-01 10 complete [2017](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2017) 2017-01 10 complete [2016](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2016) 2016-01 10 complete [2015](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2015) 2015-01 10 complete [2014](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2014) 2014-01 20 complete [2013](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2013) 2013-01 10 complete [2012](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2012) 2012-01 10 complete [2011](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2011) 2011-01 10 complete [2010](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2010) 2010-01 10 complete [2009](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2009) 2009-01 10 complete [2008](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2008) 2008-01 10 complete [2007](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2007) 2007-01 10 complete [2006](/hindsight/world-economic-forum/global-risks-report/2006) 2006-01 21 complete ## Did the report see the year’s major events coming? Rule [D32](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d32-wef-global-risks-surprise-measure-issue-48). For each year, two independent agents listed the major global events (at least 10,000 deaths, a world GDP effect of at least 0.5%, or a main shock named by the IMF or World Bank the following year). Each event is checked against the report published that January. Shown per method period, because the rankings changed method in 2021 and 2023. Never a hit rate. Matchers agreed on 85 of 86 events. - 2007-2020 Major events 51 Ranked high 12 Lower in the report 35 Not listed 4 Share ranked high 24% (14% to 37%) - 2021-2022 Major events 15 Ranked high 4 Lower in the report 11 Not listed 0 Share ranked high counts only (fewer than 20) - 2023-2025 Major events 18 Ranked high 9 Lower in the report 9 Not listed 0 Share ranked high counts only (fewer than 20) Period Major events Ranked high Lower in the report Not listed Share ranked high 2007-2020 51 12 35 4 24% (14% to 37%) 2021-2022 15 4 11 0 counts only (fewer than 20) 2023-2025 18 9 9 0 counts only (fewer than 20) - ranked high - lower in the report - not listed All 86 events - 2007 Event US subprime mortgage crisis and global financial turmoil (from August 2007) In the report ranked high Matched risk Asset price collapse ("Blow up in asset prices/excessive indebtedness") - 2007 Event Food and energy price surge (oil, grains) In the report ranked high Matched risk Oil price shock - 2008 Event Global financial crisis (Lehman collapse, banking panic) In the report ranked high Matched risk Asset price collapse - 2008 Event Oil and food price spike to mid-2008, then collapse In the report ranked high Matched risk Oil and gas price spike - 2008 Event Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar) In the report ranked low Matched risk NatCat: Cyclone - 2008 Event Sichuan (Wenchuan) earthquake, China In the report ranked low Matched risk NatCat: Earthquake - 2009 Event Great Recession: global output contraction and collapse in world trade In the report ranked high Matched risk Asset price collapse - 2009 Event H1N1 influenza pandemic In the report ranked low Matched risk Pandemic - 2009 Event Sri Lankan civil war, final offensive against the LTTE In the report absent Matched risk none - 2010 Event Haiti earthquake In the report ranked low Matched risk NatCat: Earthquake - 2010 Event Russian heat wave and wildfires In the report ranked low Matched risk Droughts and desertification - 2010 Event Euro area sovereign debt crisis (Greece, then Ireland bailouts) In the report ranked high Matched risk Fiscal crises - 2010 Event Food and commodity price surge (2010-11) In the report contested Matched risk Oil price spikes - 2011 Event Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and Fukushima nuclear accident (Japan) In the report ranked low Matched risk Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions - 2011 Event Euro area sovereign debt and banking crisis (Italy/Spain contagion) In the report ranked high Matched risk Fiscal crises - 2011 Event Somalia famine and East Africa drought In the report ranked low Matched risk Food security - 2012 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked low Matched risk Critical fragile states - 2012 Event Euro area crisis (Greek restructuring, threat of euro breakup) In the report ranked high Matched risk Chronic fiscal imbalances - 2012 Event US fiscal cliff standoff In the report not a major event Matched risk Chronic fiscal imbalances - 2012 Event Emerging market slowdown In the report ranked low Matched risk Hard landing of an emerging economy - 2013 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked low Matched risk Critical fragile states - 2013 Event Fed taper tantrum and emerging market capital outflows In the report ranked low Matched risk Recurring liquidity crises - 2014 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked low Matched risk Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance - 2014 Event Islamic State offensive and war in Iraq In the report ranked low Matched risk Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance - 2014 Event War in Afghanistan In the report ranked low Matched risk Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance - 2014 Event Boko Haram insurgency (Nigeria) In the report ranked low Matched risk Large-scale terrorist attacks - 2014 Event Oil price collapse (from mid-2014) In the report absent Matched risk none (Oil-price shock to the global economy defined as increases) - 2015 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked high Matched risk State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) - 2015 Event War in Afghanistan In the report ranked high Matched risk State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) - 2015 Event War against Islamic State in Iraq In the report ranked high Matched risk State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) - 2015 Event China slowdown, stock market crash and renminbi devaluation In the report ranked low Matched risk Asset bubble in a major economy - 2015 Event Commodity and oil price slump, with deep recessions in Brazil and Russia In the report absent Matched risk none (Energy price shock defined as increases) - 2016 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) - 2016 Event War in Iraq against ISIS (incl. battle of Mosul) In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) - 2016 Event War in Afghanistan In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) - 2016 Event UK Brexit referendum and policy uncertainty In the report absent Matched risk none - 2016 Event Oil and commodity price slump hitting commodity exporters In the report ranked high Matched risk Energy price shock - 2017 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2017 Event War in Afghanistan In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2017 Event War in Iraq against ISIS (Mosul) In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2018 Event War in Afghanistan In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2018 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2018 Event Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) In the report ranked low Matched risk Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.) - 2018 Event US-China trade war (tariff escalation) In the report ranked low Matched risk Interstate conflict with regional consequences - 2018 Event Emerging-market currency and financial stress (Argentina, Turkey) In the report ranked low Matched risk Fiscal crises in key economies - 2019 Event War in Afghanistan In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2019 Event Syrian civil war In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2019 Event Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) In the report ranked low Matched risk Illicit trade (incl. organized crime) - 2019 Event US-China trade war and global manufacturing and trade slowdown In the report ranked low Matched risk Interstate conflict with regional consequences - 2020 Event COVID-19 pandemic and global recession In the report ranked low Matched risk Infectious diseases (Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases) - 2020 Event War in Afghanistan In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2020 Event Tigray war, Ethiopia (from November 2020) In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or crisis - 2020 Event Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) In the report ranked low Matched risk Illicit trade (incl. organized crime) - 2021 Event COVID-19 pandemic (Delta and Omicron waves) In the report ranked high Matched risk Infectious diseases - 2021 Event War in Afghanistan and Taliban takeover In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse - 2021 Event Yemeni civil war and Saudi-led intervention In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse - 2021 Event Tigray war (Ethiopia, Eritrea) In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse - 2021 Event Post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions, energy price surge and inflation spike In the report ranked low Matched risk Price instability; Commodity shocks - 2021 Event China property sector crisis (Evergrande) and zero-COVID disruption In the report ranked low Matched risk Asset bubble burst - 2021 Event Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) In the report ranked low Matched risk Illicit economic activity - 2022 Event Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine In the report ranked low Matched risk Interstate conflict - 2022 Event Energy and food price shock (European gas crisis, grain disruption) In the report ranked low Matched risk Commodity shocks - 2022 Event Global inflation surge and synchronized monetary tightening In the report ranked low Matched risk Price instability - 2022 Event Ethiopian civil war (Tigray war, final offensive) In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse - 2022 Event European summer heatwaves 2022 In the report ranked high Matched risk Extreme weather - 2022 Event Somalia drought (Horn of Africa drought) In the report ranked high Matched risk Extreme weather - 2022 Event COVID-19 pandemic In the report ranked high Matched risk Infectious diseases - 2022 Event Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) In the report ranked low Matched risk Illicit economic activity - 2023 Event Turkey-Syria earthquakes In the report ranked high Matched risk Natural disasters and extreme weather events - 2023 Event Russia-Ukraine war In the report ranked low Matched risk Interstate conflict - 2023 Event Israel-Hamas war in Gaza (from 7 October 2023) In the report ranked low Matched risk Interstate conflict - 2023 Event Sudan civil war (SAF vs RSF, from April 2023) In the report ranked low Matched risk State collapse or severe instability - 2023 Event European summer heatwaves 2023 In the report ranked high Matched risk Natural disasters and extreme weather events - 2023 Event COVID-19 pandemic (late phase) In the report ranked low Matched risk Infectious diseases - 2023 Event High inflation and tight monetary policy (post-pandemic tightening cycle) In the report ranked low Matched risk Failure to stabilize price trajectories - 2023 Event Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) In the report ranked low Matched risk Proliferation of illicit economic activity - 2024 Event Russia-Ukraine war (incl. Kursk incursion) In the report ranked high Matched risk Interstate armed conflict - 2024 Event Israel-Gaza war and Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon In the report ranked high Matched risk Interstate armed conflict - 2024 Event European summer heatwaves 2024 In the report ranked high Matched risk Extreme weather events - 2024 Event COVID-19 pandemic (residual) In the report ranked low Matched risk Infectious diseases - 2024 Event Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) In the report ranked low Matched risk Intrastate violence - 2025 Event Russia-Ukraine war In the report ranked high Matched risk State-based armed conflict - 2025 Event Middle East wars (Gaza, Israel-Iran war of June 2025, Lebanon) In the report ranked high Matched risk State-based armed conflict - 2025 Event Sudan civil war and famine (incl. fall of El Fasher) In the report ranked high Matched risk State-based armed conflict - 2025 Event US tariff escalation and global trade tensions In the report ranked high Matched risk Geoeconomic confrontation - 2025 Event COVID-19 pandemic (residual) In the report ranked low Matched risk Infectious diseases Year Event In the report Matched risk 2007 US subprime mortgage crisis and global financial turmoil (from August 2007) ranked high Asset price collapse ("Blow up in asset prices/excessive indebtedness") 2007 Food and energy price surge (oil, grains) ranked high Oil price shock 2008 Global financial crisis (Lehman collapse, banking panic) ranked high Asset price collapse 2008 Oil and food price spike to mid-2008, then collapse ranked high Oil and gas price spike 2008 Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar) ranked low NatCat: Cyclone 2008 Sichuan (Wenchuan) earthquake, China ranked low NatCat: Earthquake 2009 Great Recession: global output contraction and collapse in world trade ranked high Asset price collapse 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic ranked low Pandemic 2009 Sri Lankan civil war, final offensive against the LTTE absent none 2010 Haiti earthquake ranked low NatCat: Earthquake 2010 Russian heat wave and wildfires ranked low Droughts and desertification 2010 Euro area sovereign debt crisis (Greece, then Ireland bailouts) ranked high Fiscal crises 2010 Food and commodity price surge (2010-11) contested Oil price spikes 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami and Fukushima nuclear accident (Japan) ranked low Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions 2011 Euro area sovereign debt and banking crisis (Italy/Spain contagion) ranked high Fiscal crises 2011 Somalia famine and East Africa drought ranked low Food security 2012 Syrian civil war ranked low Critical fragile states 2012 Euro area crisis (Greek restructuring, threat of euro breakup) ranked high Chronic fiscal imbalances 2012 US fiscal cliff standoff not a major event Chronic fiscal imbalances 2012 Emerging market slowdown ranked low Hard landing of an emerging economy 2013 Syrian civil war ranked low Critical fragile states 2013 Fed taper tantrum and emerging market capital outflows ranked low Recurring liquidity crises 2014 Syrian civil war ranked low Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance 2014 Islamic State offensive and war in Iraq ranked low Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance 2014 War in Afghanistan ranked low Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance 2014 Boko Haram insurgency (Nigeria) ranked low Large-scale terrorist attacks 2014 Oil price collapse (from mid-2014) absent none (Oil-price shock to the global economy defined as increases) 2015 Syrian civil war ranked high State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) 2015 War in Afghanistan ranked high State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) 2015 War against Islamic State in Iraq ranked high State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) 2015 China slowdown, stock market crash and renminbi devaluation ranked low Asset bubble in a major economy 2015 Commodity and oil price slump, with deep recessions in Brazil and Russia absent none (Energy price shock defined as increases) 2016 Syrian civil war ranked low State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) 2016 War in Iraq against ISIS (incl. battle of Mosul) ranked low State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) 2016 War in Afghanistan ranked low State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) 2016 UK Brexit referendum and policy uncertainty absent none 2016 Oil and commodity price slump hitting commodity exporters ranked high Energy price shock 2017 Syrian civil war ranked low State collapse or crisis 2017 War in Afghanistan ranked low State collapse or crisis 2017 War in Iraq against ISIS (Mosul) ranked low State collapse or crisis 2018 War in Afghanistan ranked low State collapse or crisis 2018 Syrian civil war ranked low State collapse or crisis 2018 Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) ranked low Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.) 2018 US-China trade war (tariff escalation) ranked low Interstate conflict with regional consequences 2018 Emerging-market currency and financial stress (Argentina, Turkey) ranked low Fiscal crises in key economies 2019 War in Afghanistan ranked low State collapse or crisis 2019 Syrian civil war ranked low State collapse or crisis 2019 Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) ranked low Illicit trade (incl. organized crime) 2019 US-China trade war and global manufacturing and trade slowdown ranked low Interstate conflict with regional consequences 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and global recession ranked low Infectious diseases (Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases) 2020 War in Afghanistan ranked low State collapse or crisis 2020 Tigray war, Ethiopia (from November 2020) ranked low State collapse or crisis 2020 Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) ranked low Illicit trade (incl. organized crime) 2021 COVID-19 pandemic (Delta and Omicron waves) ranked high Infectious diseases 2021 War in Afghanistan and Taliban takeover ranked low State collapse 2021 Yemeni civil war and Saudi-led intervention ranked low State collapse 2021 Tigray war (Ethiopia, Eritrea) ranked low State collapse 2021 Post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions, energy price surge and inflation spike ranked low Price instability; Commodity shocks 2021 China property sector crisis (Evergrande) and zero-COVID disruption ranked low Asset bubble burst 2021 Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) ranked low Illicit economic activity 2022 Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine ranked low Interstate conflict 2022 Energy and food price shock (European gas crisis, grain disruption) ranked low Commodity shocks 2022 Global inflation surge and synchronized monetary tightening ranked low Price instability 2022 Ethiopian civil war (Tigray war, final offensive) ranked low State collapse 2022 European summer heatwaves 2022 ranked high Extreme weather 2022 Somalia drought (Horn of Africa drought) ranked high Extreme weather 2022 COVID-19 pandemic ranked high Infectious diseases 2022 Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) ranked low Illicit economic activity 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes ranked high Natural disasters and extreme weather events 2023 Russia-Ukraine war ranked low Interstate conflict 2023 Israel-Hamas war in Gaza (from 7 October 2023) ranked low Interstate conflict 2023 Sudan civil war (SAF vs RSF, from April 2023) ranked low State collapse or severe instability 2023 European summer heatwaves 2023 ranked high Natural disasters and extreme weather events 2023 COVID-19 pandemic (late phase) ranked low Infectious diseases 2023 High inflation and tight monetary policy (post-pandemic tightening cycle) ranked low Failure to stabilize price trajectories 2023 Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) ranked low Proliferation of illicit economic activity 2024 Russia-Ukraine war (incl. Kursk incursion) ranked high Interstate armed conflict 2024 Israel-Gaza war and Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon ranked high Interstate armed conflict 2024 European summer heatwaves 2024 ranked high Extreme weather events 2024 COVID-19 pandemic (residual) ranked low Infectious diseases 2024 Mexican drug war (cartel conflicts) ranked low Intrastate violence 2025 Russia-Ukraine war ranked high State-based armed conflict 2025 Middle East wars (Gaza, Israel-Iran war of June 2025, Lebanon) ranked high State-based armed conflict 2025 Sudan civil war and famine (incl. fall of El Fasher) ranked high State-based armed conflict 2025 US tariff escalation and global trade tensions ranked high Geoeconomic confrontation 2025 COVID-19 pandemic (residual) ranked low Infectious diseases --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---