# Books and essays · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[Ray Kurzweil](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil) 3. ›Books and essays --- # Books and essays Dated predictions · 5 publications Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Publications](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books)[Audit](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/audit) - [2024](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/2024) Published 2024-06-25 Predictions 8 Status partial - [2010](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/2010) Published 2010-10 Predictions 3 Graded 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Status complete - [2005](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/2005) Published 2005-09 Predictions 16 Graded 13 Hit rate 3 of 13, counts only Status partial - [1999](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/1999) Published 1999-01 Predictions 252 Graded 246 Hit rate 38% of 243 Status partial - [1990](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/1990) Published 1990 Predictions 8 Graded 5 Hit rate 4 of 5, counts only Status partial Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2024](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/2024) 2024-06-25 8 partial [2010](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/2010) 2010-10 3 1 0 of 1, counts only complete [2005](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/2005) 2005-09 16 13 3 of 13, counts only partial [1999](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/1999) 1999-01 252 246 38% of 243 partial [1990](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books/1990) 1990 8 5 4 of 5, counts only partial - hit - partial - miss Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). ## 1990: by target year - 2000 Hit 2 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 2 of 2, counts only - 2010 Hit 2 Partial 1 Miss 0 Hit rate 2 of 3, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2000 2 0 0 2 of 2, counts only 2010 2 1 0 2 of 3, counts only ## 1999: by target year - 2009 Hit 65 Partial 37 Miss 41 Hit rate 45% of 143 - 2019 Hit 27 Partial 36 Miss 37 Hit rate 27% of 100 Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2009 65 37 41 45% of 143 2019 27 36 37 27% of 100 ## 2005: by target year - 2010 Hit 3 Partial 3 Miss 5 Hit rate 3 of 11, counts only - 2020 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2025 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2010 3 3 5 3 of 11, counts only 2020 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2025 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---