# Ray Kurzweil · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/ray-kurzweil

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›Ray Kurzweil

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# Ray Kurzweil

Every publication series from Ray Kurzweil in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Books and essays](/hindsight/ray-kurzweil/books)Dated predictions

Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)).

5 publications, 1990 to 2024 · 287 predictions

38%

050%100%

hit rate, 99 of 262, 95% interval 27% to 49% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 32% to 44%.

-   hit99
-   partial78
-   miss85
-   unfalsifiable3
-   ungradable3
-   contested3

1.  271claims
    
    each graded by two agents who cannot see each other's verdict ([D7](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d7-agentic-verdicts-with-independent-agreement))
    
2.  →
    
    219agreed
    
    agreement beyond chance, kappa 0.72
    
3.  →
    
    52settled
    
    the graders disagreed; a third agent decided ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11))
    
4.  →
    
    100audited
    
    an agent re-checked a fixed sample of agreed verdicts: 2 corrected, 3 left unsettled ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
5.  →
    
    268published
    
    3 contested: no verdict publishes
    

How testable the claims were

1% too vague to test

3 of 271. unfalsifiable: the plausible readings give different verdicts.

1% no public measure

3 of 271. ungradable: nothing measures what the claim states at its date.

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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