Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
5 publications, 1990 to 2024 · 287 predictions
45%
hit rate, 65 of 143 (95% interval 38% to 54%)
Two blind graders (D7, rule D16), agreement kappa 0.71. A third agent settled 29 disagreements (D20). Audit (D11): 50 agreed verdicts checked, error rate 6%.