# Top Strategic Predictions · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[Gartner](/hindsight/gartner) 3. ›Top Strategic Predictions --- # Top Strategic Predictions Dated predictions · 21 publications Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Publications](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions)[Audit](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/audit) - [2025](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2025) Published 2025-10-21 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2024](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2024) Published 2024-10-22 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2023) Published 2023-10-17 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2022](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2022) Published 2022-10-18 Predictions 10 Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2021) Published 2021-10-19 Predictions 10 Graded 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Status complete - [2020](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2020) Published 2020-10-21 Predictions 10 Graded 2 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only Status complete - [2019](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2019) Published 2019-10-22 Predictions 10 Graded 5 Hit rate 0 of 4, counts only Status complete - [2018](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2018) Published 2018-10-16 Predictions 10 Graded 4 Hit rate 1 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2017](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2017) Published 2017-10-03 Predictions 10 Graded 2 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only Status complete - [2016](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2016) Published 2016-10-18 Predictions 10 Graded 2 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Status complete - [2015](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2015) Published 2015-10-06 Predictions 10 Graded 4 Hit rate 1 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2014](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2014) Published 2014-10-07 Predictions 20 Graded 5 Hit rate 2 of 5, counts only Status complete - [2013](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2013) Published 2013-10-08 Predictions 20 Graded 7 Hit rate 2 of 7, counts only Status complete - [2012](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2012) Published 2012-10-24 Predictions 11 Graded 4 Hit rate 2 of 4, counts only Status complete - [2011](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2011) Published 2011-12-01 Predictions 11 Graded 6 Hit rate 0 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2010-11](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2010-11) Published 2010-11-30 Predictions 8 Graded 3 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Status complete - [2010-01](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2010-01) Published 2010-01-13 Predictions 9 Graded 4 Hit rate 3 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2009](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2009) Published 2009-02-06 Predictions 10 Graded 6 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Status complete - [2008](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2008) Published 2008-01-31 Predictions 10 Graded 5 Hit rate 0 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2006](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2006) Published 2006-12-13 Predictions 10 Graded 4 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only Status complete - [2004](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2004) Published 2004-11 Predictions 5 Graded 3 Hit rate 1 of 3, counts only Status partial Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2025](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2025) 2025-10-21 10 complete [2024](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2024) 2024-10-22 10 complete [2023](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2023) 2023-10-17 10 complete [2022](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2022) 2022-10-18 10 complete [2021](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2021) 2021-10-19 10 1 0 of 1, counts only complete [2020](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2020) 2020-10-21 10 2 0 of 2, counts only complete [2019](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2019) 2019-10-22 10 5 0 of 4, counts only complete [2018](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2018) 2018-10-16 10 4 1 of 3, counts only complete [2017](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2017) 2017-10-03 10 2 1 of 2, counts only complete [2016](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2016) 2016-10-18 10 2 1 of 1, counts only complete [2015](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2015) 2015-10-06 10 4 1 of 3, counts only complete [2014](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2014) 2014-10-07 20 5 2 of 5, counts only complete [2013](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2013) 2013-10-08 20 7 2 of 7, counts only complete [2012](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2012) 2012-10-24 11 4 2 of 4, counts only complete [2011](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2011) 2011-12-01 11 6 0 of 3, counts only complete [2010-11](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2010-11) 2010-11-30 8 3 0 of 1, counts only complete [2010-01](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2010-01) 2010-01-13 9 4 3 of 3, counts only complete [2009](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2009) 2009-02-06 10 6 0 of 1, counts only complete [2008](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2008) 2008-01-31 10 5 0 of 3, counts only complete [2006](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2006) 2006-12-13 10 4 0 of 2, counts only complete [2004](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions/2004) 2004-11 5 3 1 of 3, counts only partial - hit - partial - miss Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). ## 2004: by target year - 2007 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2008 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2009 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2007 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2008 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2009 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2006: by target year - 2007 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2010 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2007 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2010 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2008: by target year - 2011 Hit 0 Partial 1 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only - 2012 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2011 0 1 1 0 of 2, counts only 2012 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2010-01: by target year - 2012 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2013 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2014 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2012 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2013 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2014 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2011: by target year - 2013 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2014 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2015 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2013 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2014 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2015 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2012: by target year - 2014 Hit 0 Partial 1 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only - 2015 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2016 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2014 0 1 1 0 of 2, counts only 2015 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2016 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2013: by target year - 2014 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only - 2015 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 2 Hit rate 1 of 3, counts only - 2016 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2020 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2014 1 0 1 1 of 2, counts only 2015 1 0 2 1 of 3, counts only 2016 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2020 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2014: by target year - 2015 Hit 1 Partial 1 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only - 2016 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2017 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 2 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2015 1 1 0 1 of 2, counts only 2016 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2017 0 0 2 0 of 2, counts only ## 2015: by target year - 2018 Hit 1 Partial 1 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only - 2020 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2018 1 1 0 1 of 2, counts only 2020 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2017: by target year - 2020 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2022 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2020 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2022 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2018: by target year - 2021 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2023 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 2 Hit rate 0 of 2, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2021 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2023 0 0 2 0 of 2, counts only ## 2019: by target year - 2023 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 3 Hit rate 0 of 3, counts only - 2024 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2023 0 0 3 0 of 3, counts only 2024 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2020: by target year - 2024 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2025 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2024 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only 2025 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---