# Gartner · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/gartner

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›Gartner

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# Gartner

Every publication series from Gartner in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle)Technology placements

Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)).

31 publications, 1995 to 2025 · 941 predictions

60%

050%100%

hit rate, 240 of 403, 95% interval 45% to 74% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 55% to 64%.

-   hit240
-   partial73
-   miss90
-   unfalsifiable3
-   contested3

1.  409claims
    
    each graded by two agents who cannot see each other's verdict ([D7](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d7-agentic-verdicts-with-independent-agreement))
    
2.  →
    
    323agreed
    
    agreement beyond chance, kappa 0.66
    
3.  →
    
    86settled
    
    the graders disagreed; a third agent decided ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11))
    
4.  →
    
    50audited
    
    an agent re-checked a fixed sample of agreed verdicts: 2 corrected, 3 left unsettled ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
5.  →
    
    406published
    
    3 contested: no verdict publishes
    

How testable the claims were

under 1% too vague to test

3 of 409. unfalsifiable: the plausible readings give different verdicts.

[Top Strategic Predictions](/hindsight/gartner/strategic-predictions)Dated predictions

Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)).

21 publications, 2004 to 2025 · 224 predictions

29%

050%100%

hit rate, 14 of 48, 95% interval 6% to 55% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 18% to 43%.

-   hit14
-   partial4
-   miss30
-   ungradable134
-   contested4

1.  186claims
    
    each graded by two agents who cannot see each other's verdict ([D7](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d7-agentic-verdicts-with-independent-agreement))
    
2.  →
    
    177agreed
    
    agreement beyond chance, kappa 0.88
    
3.  →
    
    9settled
    
    the graders disagreed; a third agent decided ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11))
    
4.  →
    
    42audited
    
    an agent re-checked a fixed sample of agreed verdicts: 1 corrected, 4 left unsettled ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
5.  →
    
    182published
    
    4 contested: no verdict publishes
    

How testable the claims were

72% no public measure

134 of 186. ungradable: nothing measures what the claim states at its date.

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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