# Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[Gartner](/hindsight/gartner) 3. ›Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies --- # Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Technology placements · 31 publications Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Publications](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle)[Explorer](/hindsight/hype-cycle)[Audit](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/audit) ## Hit rate by year of publication 0%50%100%all years 60%1999: 45% hits, 9 of 20 (95% interval 26% to 66%)2002: 45% hits, 9 of 20 (95% interval 26% to 66%)2003: 33% hits, 9 of 27 (95% interval 19% to 52%)2004: 48% hits, 15 of 31 (95% interval 32% to 65%)2005: 54% hits, 20 of 37 (95% interval 38% to 69%)2006: 57% hits, 17 of 30 (95% interval 39% to 73%)2007: 61% hits, 14 of 23 (95% interval 41% to 78%)2008: 61% hits, 14 of 23 (95% interval 41% to 78%)2009: 62% hits, 18 of 29 (95% interval 44% to 77%)2010: 72% hits, 23 of 32 (95% interval 55% to 84%)2011: 83% hits, 29 of 35 (95% interval 67% to 92%)2012: 81% hits, 17 of 21 (95% interval 60% to 92%)graded1999: 20 graded2000: 19 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2001: 19 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2002: 20 graded2003: 27 graded2004: 31 graded2005: 37 graded2006: 30 graded2007: 23 graded2008: 23 graded2009: 29 graded2010: 32 graded2011: 35 graded2012: 21 graded2013: 13 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2014: 12 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2015: 9 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2016: 3 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)199920012003200520072009201120132015 Each dot is one year’s hit rate with its 95% interval, shown only for years with at least 20 graded claims ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). The bars below count the graded claims per year; faint bars are years too thin for a rate. Per-year rates carry no audit adjustment. Hover for the numbers. - [2025](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2025) Published 2025-08 Predictions 30 Status complete - [2024](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2024) Published 2024-08 Predictions 25 Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2023) Published 2023-08 Predictions 25 Status complete - [2022](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2022) Published 2022-08 Predictions 25 Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2021) Published 2021-08 Predictions 25 Status complete - [2020](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2020) Published 2020-08 Predictions 30 Status complete - [2019](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2019) Published 2019-08 Predictions 29 Status complete - [2018](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2018) Published 2018-08 Predictions 35 Status partial - [2017](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2017) Predictions 32 Status unknown - [2016](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2016) Published 2016-08 Predictions 34 Graded 3 Hit rate 3 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2015](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2015) Predictions 37 Graded 9 Hit rate 3 of 9, counts only Status unknown - [2014](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2014) Predictions 45 Graded 12 Hit rate 9 of 12, counts only Status unknown - [2013](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2013) Predictions 43 Graded 13 Hit rate 12 of 13, counts only Status unknown - [2012](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2012) Predictions 48 Graded 21 Hit rate 81% of 21 Status unknown - [2011](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2011) Predictions 42 Graded 36 Hit rate 83% of 35 Status unknown - [2010](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2010) Predictions 41 Graded 33 Hit rate 72% of 32 Status unknown - [2009](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2009) Predictions 34 Graded 29 Hit rate 62% of 29 Status unknown - [2008](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2008) Predictions 27 Graded 23 Hit rate 61% of 23 Status unknown - [2007](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2007) Predictions 29 Graded 24 Hit rate 61% of 23 Status unknown - [2006](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2006) Predictions 36 Graded 30 Hit rate 57% of 30 Status unknown - [2005](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2005) Predictions 44 Graded 37 Hit rate 54% of 37 Status unknown - [2004](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2004) Published 2004-07-30 Predictions 37 Graded 31 Hit rate 48% of 31 Status complete - [2003](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2003) Published 2003-07-02 Predictions 31 Graded 27 Hit rate 33% of 27 Status complete - [2002](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2002) Published 2002-05-28 Predictions 21 Graded 20 Hit rate 45% of 20 Status complete - [2001](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2001) Published 2001-07-02 Predictions 19 Graded 19 Hit rate 12 of 19, counts only Status complete - [2000](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2000) Published 2000-06-05 Predictions 20 Graded 19 Hit rate 7 of 19, counts only Status complete - [1999](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1999) Published 1999 Predictions 21 Graded 20 Hit rate 45% of 20 Status complete - [1998](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1998) Published 1998 Predictions 23 Status complete - [1997](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1997) Published 1997 Predictions 23 Status complete - [1996](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1996) Published 1996 Predictions 20 Status complete - [1995](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1995) Published 1995-01-11 Predictions 10 Status complete Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2025](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2025) 2025-08 30 complete [2024](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2024) 2024-08 25 complete [2023](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2023) 2023-08 25 complete [2022](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2022) 2022-08 25 complete [2021](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2021) 2021-08 25 complete [2020](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2020) 2020-08 30 complete [2019](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2019) 2019-08 29 complete [2018](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2018) 2018-08 35 partial [2017](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2017) 32 unknown [2016](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2016) 2016-08 34 3 3 of 3, counts only complete [2015](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2015) 37 9 3 of 9, counts only unknown [2014](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2014) 45 12 9 of 12, counts only unknown [2013](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2013) 43 13 12 of 13, counts only unknown [2012](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2012) 48 21 81% of 21 unknown [2011](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2011) 42 36 83% of 35 unknown [2010](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2010) 41 33 72% of 32 unknown [2009](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2009) 34 29 62% of 29 unknown [2008](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2008) 27 23 61% of 23 unknown [2007](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2007) 29 24 61% of 23 unknown [2006](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2006) 36 30 57% of 30 unknown [2005](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2005) 44 37 54% of 37 unknown [2004](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2004) 2004-07-30 37 31 48% of 31 complete [2003](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2003) 2003-07-02 31 27 33% of 27 complete [2002](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2002) 2002-05-28 21 20 45% of 20 complete [2001](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2001) 2001-07-02 19 19 12 of 19, counts only complete [2000](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/2000) 2000-06-05 20 19 7 of 19, counts only complete [1999](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1999) 1999 21 20 45% of 20 complete [1998](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1998) 1998 23 complete [1997](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1997) 1997 23 complete [1996](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1996) 1996 20 complete [1995](/hindsight/gartner/hype-cycle/1995) 1995-01-11 10 complete - hit - partial - miss Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---