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Virtual experiences

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

Beyond music recordings, images, and movie videos, the most popular type of digital entertainment object is virtual experience software. These interactive virtual environments allow you to go whitewater rafting on virtual rivers, to hang glide in a virtual Grand Canyon, or to engage in intimate encounters with your favorite movie star.

Source

Verdict

hitThe two blind graders disagreed (A: partial, B: hit). A third agent settled it (D20).

Grader A: partial

Interactive environments, as video games, were a very popular digital entertainment form by 2009 (World of Warcraft alone had over 10 million subscribers). But the claim describes immersive virtual experiences (rafting, hang gliding, intimate encounters) that feel like being there. Consumer VR headsets arrived only in 2016. Games were popular; the virtual-experience form was not.

Test: Video game play: mass market (WoW 10-12 million subscribers 2008-2010). Immersive VR experience software: under 5% of households by 2014 (first consumer Rift 2016).

World of Warcraft (Wikipedia) (2026-09-28): More than 10 million subscribers in January 2008; peak 12 million in October 2010.
Oculus Rift (Wikipedia) (2026-09-28): DK1 March 2013; consumer CV1 shipped 25 March 2016; earlier VR impractical for consumers.

Grader B: hit

If 'virtual experience software' means interactive 3D environments delivered as software (video games, including simulations of sports, flight and adventure), it was the leading digital entertainment category after music, images and video. In 2008, 53% of US adults and 97% of teens played video games. World of Warcraft had more than 10 million subscribers in January 2008. Immersive VR-headset experiences (the literal whitewater and hang-gliding examples) were not mainstream until well after 2014; under that reading the verdict would be miss.

Test: Mainstream test: 20% of target users use interactive virtual-environment software. 2008: 53% of US adults and 97% of teens played video games (Pew).

Adults and Video Games (Pew Internet) (2008-12-07): 53% of US adults and 97% of teens play video games.
World of Warcraft (Wikipedia) (accessed 2026-09): More than 10 million subscribers by January 2008; peak of 12 million in October 2010.

All captured fields

rank: 123
kind: decade_prediction
section: The Arts
subject: Virtual experiences
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item The Arts 18 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 99
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.