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Microsoft $1 trillion market cap

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

A company west of the Mississippi and north of the Mason-Dixon Line has surpassed a trillion dollars in market capitalization.

Source

Verdict

missTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). The auditor agent confirmed it (D11).

Grader A: miss

No company reached $1 trillion market capitalization by 2014. Microsoft (Redmond, the intended company) was worth $269 billion at end of 2009 and first passed $1 trillion in 2019. Apple and Amazon passed $1 trillion only in 2018.

Test: Numeric: claimed >$1,000bn; Microsoft actual $268.55bn at end 2009 (73% short).

Microsoft market capitalization history (CompaniesMarketCap) (2026-09-28): Year-end market cap: 1999 $604bn, 2009 $268.55bn, 2014 $381.72bn, 2019 $1.2 trillion.

Grader B: miss

No company reached a $1 trillion market capitalization by 2014. The first were Apple (August 2, 2018), Amazon (September 4, 2018) and Microsoft (April 25, 2019). The Seattle-area firms (Amazon, Microsoft) match the geographic hint. The milestone came about a decade late.

Test: Numeric/threshold test: any company at or above $1T market cap by 2009 (grace to 2014). Actual: none until August 2018.

Trillion-dollar company (Wikipedia) (accessed 2026-09): First $1T market caps: Apple 2 Aug 2018, Amazon 4 Sep 2018, Microsoft 25 Apr 2019.

All captured fields

rank: 96
kind: decade_prediction
section: Business & Economics
subject: Microsoft $1 trillion market cap
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Business & Economics 19 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 83
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.