Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
At least half of all transactions are conducted on-line.
Grader A: miss
Online commerce was far below half of transactions. US e-commerce was 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, and still in single digits in 2014.
Test: Numeric: claimed at least 50% of transactions online; actual US retail e-commerce share 3.7% in 2009 (Census). Far outside the 25% band.
Grader B: miss
Census E-Stats covers manufacturing, wholesale, retail and selected services. In 2010, e-commerce was 46.4% of manufacturing shipments, 24.6% of merchant wholesale sales, 4.4% of retail sales (4.0% in 2009) and 2.3% of selected service revenues. Weighted across these sectors, e-commerce was about 16% of value. Consumer-facing transactions were far below half. The 50% threshold was not reached by 2009 or 2011.
Test: Numeric test: predicted at least 50% of transactions online. Actual (US, 2009-2010): about 16% of covered economic activity by value; retail 4.0% (2009). 16% is far outside the 25% band of 50%.