Ubiquity of online transactions

Grader A: miss

Online commerce was far below half of transactions. US e-commerce was 3.7% of retail sales in 2009, and still in single digits in 2014.

Test: Numeric: claimed at least 50% of transactions online; actual US retail e-commerce share 3.7% in 2009 (Census). Far outside the 25% band.

• Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 4th Quarter 2009 (US Census Bureau) (2010-02-16): E-commerce sales in 2009 accounted for 3.7% of total retail sales (3.3% in 2008).

Grader B: miss

Census E-Stats covers manufacturing, wholesale, retail and selected services. In 2010, e-commerce was 46.4% of manufacturing shipments, 24.6% of merchant wholesale sales, 4.4% of retail sales (4.0% in 2009) and 2.3% of selected service revenues. Weighted across these sectors, e-commerce was about 16% of value. Consumer-facing transactions were far below half. The 50% threshold was not reached by 2009 or 2011.

Test: Numeric test: predicted at least 50% of transactions online. Actual (US, 2009-2010): about 16% of covered economic activity by value; retail 4.0% (2009). 16% is far outside the 25% band of 50%.

• E-Stats: E-commerce 2010 (US Census Bureau) (2012-05): 2010 e-commerce shares: manufacturing 46.4% ($2,283B), merchant wholesale 24.6% ($1,422B), retail 4.4% ($169B; 4.0% in 2009), selected services 2.3% ($255B).
• E-commerce 2009 (US Census Bureau) (2011-05): In 2009, e-commerce decreased in manufacturing and merchant wholesale.